Kicking it off. I'm not sure why I'm even doing the forum anymore, but still kicking it off. I guess I do it for Marcin, rat, and the other guy, and the small handful of others who come in now and again...

BTW, I felt it was 70/30 they'd keep it moving down. I think my odds were swayed by how good they were at making it look weak. It reminds me of the mother ground bird (I've seen Killdeer do this a lot) when you approach her nest. She moves off the nest, and stumbles around looking wounded. This just draws a predator's attention. They chase her, and she keeps flopping around, just ahead of them. They can't help themselves, they sense weakness, and they are drawn to it. But she isn't weak, and no meal will be had today.

The market is like that. It knows how to 'act weak' and draw suckers in. I can usually tell when they are doing this, but they are so good it is sometimes hard for even me to tell. The odds greatly favor it not doing what it looks like it is about to do. In the old days it was mostly that it does what would I see it setting up for, with some fakes thrown in to keep it 'honest'. Now it's like 90% it doesn't do what it looks like, with 10% to keep it 'honest'. Pretty perverse, but knowing this is crucial. Such it was once again this time. I was ready for the long side, but I wanted to chase the mama bird, that's for sure.

BTW, I'm trying to throw in some 'odds' to show how I view things for given situations. I'm not sure if it will be of any value. Also, to 'test' my accuracy we'd need a huge series, not that anyone would want to try to test it anyway. I'm just attempting to convey a little bit of how I'm thinking, how my process works.

1.2485 is next level for the Euro.

Reaction off of the expected area.
1.2514 might be it.

I've just got that one on my Kindle. After introduction I think this one is going to be a great supplement to "Thinking fast and slow" by Kanneman, where he proves how our subconsious mind makes decisions before we even switch to full thinking mode, which requires a serious effort - not only concentration but also providing enough oxygen to the brain.
http://books.google.pl/books?id=ZuKTvERuPG8C&printsec=frontcover&dq=thinking+fast+and+slow&hl=pl&sa=X&ei=tdBpVJaYB-W5ygPX-ICgBg&ved=0CB8Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=thinking%20fast%20and%20slow&f=false

Originally posted by jimkane

In case the above non-trading post was of any interest to anyone, here's a link to read. It's from a book that discussed the above video. The point is, after incontrovertible proof, basically no one who previously believed changed their belief. All they did was rationalize how the belief could still be true. Scroll up one page and read from the start of that topic on the master. Read and see:

http://books.google.com/books?id=cT3HZI9z_4oC&pg=PT34&lpg=PT34&dq=master++ryukerin&source=bl&ots=yifbJyya2T&sig=3AzzN4GtetcqjmS_MjkAkHnB5LE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=wzppVJ69MMT2igLB94HoDA&ved=0CGQQ6AEwCTgK#v=onepage&q=master%20%20ryukerin&f=false

Cable seems to need just one more push higher into the area.

Next areas for the Euro are 1.2460 and 1.2415.
1.2435 may also cause trouble.

ABCD to 40 and then down?

XAU USD showing classic ABCD pattern

Sums it all up nicely. When will 'we' ever learn...






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