JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Wow, now that's the way the forum should be! You guys are machines. Gotta love those Dow stocks, and the currencies. Great stuff. I'm expecting another great week from an action standpoint. This year, I think, is going to go down in the history books.
If Armstrong is right we may see Dow 43,000 by 2017 as sovereign bonds implode worldwide, which will lead to massive pension defaults, city and state defaults, endless failed businesses, and total craziness in governments, federal and state, worldwide, and all the money going into USD and the U.S. stock market. So much debt is denominated in USD now (just ask Marcin about mortgages in his part of the world) that many people are in deep trouble. The pegs to the USD are going to give way worldwide, from China to SE Asia to the middle east to South America. Then all those currencies will devalue, and the USD will rocket, since it's relative. That will worsen the USD denominated debt exponentially, and a living hell will ensue.
And while this worldwide collapse is happening, and people all across America are not getting their pensions any more (because pension funds hold lots of bonds*), the stock market will be exploding to South Seas bubble/Tulip mania levels, and the talking heads will be explaining how stocks are the most undervalued they have ever been, and how much money is still on the sidelines and how mom and pop will be getting in soon and how it has a long ways to run. And they'll be saying that at Dow 40,000, as the entire planet melts down and we enter a major war with Russia and/or China. In other words, look back to ancient Greece, to the Roman Empire, to every government since then, same old, same old. And there is a zero percent chance 'it's different this time'. The timing factors are this year, so get ready, we are no longer going to be in the eye of the storm, we are about to be in 'Wave 3'. Have fun, the market is going to be wild!
* It is possible the pensions won't do that bad because many hold stocks. The ones that will be destroyed are ones that can't shift rapidly into stocks, or are pure bond funds and can't sell. But, when you factor the leverage into this, and the $1.6 quadrillion dollars in derivatives (of which at least half, maybe three-quarters of a quadrillion is in interest rate sensitive issues), I can't see anything but fire and brimstone, pure hell-fire destruction. As any learned person would say: 'This is deflation'.
If Armstrong is right we may see Dow 43,000 by 2017 as sovereign bonds implode worldwide, which will lead to massive pension defaults, city and state defaults, endless failed businesses, and total craziness in governments, federal and state, worldwide, and all the money going into USD and the U.S. stock market. So much debt is denominated in USD now (just ask Marcin about mortgages in his part of the world) that many people are in deep trouble. The pegs to the USD are going to give way worldwide, from China to SE Asia to the middle east to South America. Then all those currencies will devalue, and the USD will rocket, since it's relative. That will worsen the USD denominated debt exponentially, and a living hell will ensue.
And while this worldwide collapse is happening, and people all across America are not getting their pensions any more (because pension funds hold lots of bonds*), the stock market will be exploding to South Seas bubble/Tulip mania levels, and the talking heads will be explaining how stocks are the most undervalued they have ever been, and how much money is still on the sidelines and how mom and pop will be getting in soon and how it has a long ways to run. And they'll be saying that at Dow 40,000, as the entire planet melts down and we enter a major war with Russia and/or China. In other words, look back to ancient Greece, to the Roman Empire, to every government since then, same old, same old. And there is a zero percent chance 'it's different this time'. The timing factors are this year, so get ready, we are no longer going to be in the eye of the storm, we are about to be in 'Wave 3'. Have fun, the market is going to be wild!
* It is possible the pensions won't do that bad because many hold stocks. The ones that will be destroyed are ones that can't shift rapidly into stocks, or are pure bond funds and can't sell. But, when you factor the leverage into this, and the $1.6 quadrillion dollars in derivatives (of which at least half, maybe three-quarters of a quadrillion is in interest rate sensitive issues), I can't see anything but fire and brimstone, pure hell-fire destruction. As any learned person would say: 'This is deflation'.
MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
Here's something funny. After the American open I was almost sure nothing serious was going to happen with the Euro e.g. they were going to play their standard game on low volatility days - TL violation to TL violation.
Just as I closed my +20 pips trade at point X, where I had my very short term AOC, it rolled over to 1.1340 - the area posted yesterday....
The chart finishes at 1 p.m. EST, but the spot market low is currently at 1.1320, another level posted yesterday. Isn't it ironic?
Just as I closed my +20 pips trade at point X, where I had my very short term AOC, it rolled over to 1.1340 - the area posted yesterday....
The chart finishes at 1 p.m. EST, but the spot market low is currently at 1.1320, another level posted yesterday. Isn't it ironic?
Click image for original size
MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
What makes me happy is that the latter area, gave over 30 pips reaction so far and still has about 25 pips more to go if my scenario works out.
MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
One more interesting thing about the Euro.
Although the spot LOD is 20 pips lower than the one in the futures (6E H5 contract), most of the geometries shown below also hold in the spot. Besides, Fibs grouping derived from spot price action not included in the futures chart also confirms that level.
Although the spot LOD is 20 pips lower than the one in the futures (6E H5 contract), most of the geometries shown below also hold in the spot. Besides, Fibs grouping derived from spot price action not included in the futures chart also confirms that level.
Click image for original size
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Sums it up. Doesn't matter. Bears will ride 0% for awhile at some point. Dow 43,000 is on its way.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/secular-death-market-bears-continues
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/secular-death-market-bears-continues
RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
2123 - 2145 is shaping up to be an important next area here:
Click image for original size
RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
.886 on spy was at 210.21. They shot it up there and whacked it at 210.18....gotta love it....the game goes on
MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
Guys and ladies, please forgive me, but I have only one thing to say here, in our well educated form,:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W-fIn2QZgg
and if you think I've made a mistake, at least due to political correctness, you have to accept my link , because as a non-English speaking minority, I have no idea what I was placing here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W-fIn2QZgg
and if you think I've made a mistake, at least due to political correctness, you have to accept my link , because as a non-English speaking minority, I have no idea what I was placing here.