Es might be done at 65.75, with some support area over there, but there is much stronger level in high 30's, which is likely to work like a magnet.



I will also mention 1720, but I don't believe it will be hit soon, so if ever ES is gonna get there it will need more time, so most likely it won't reach that level in ABCD fashion.

So, here is a good example of where my viewpoint would be waiting for another push with a partial, but expecting the odds slightly favor it's done for the RTH. It's a win/win, though, my favorite position to be in. It's not that common to be in this situation, but it's the goal of every trade to be there. Some off, some riding with the stop way above entry. Win/win.

spy 5 chart - classic bull set up at the low - 3 points on a line, with fib in place. In a bull market, I expect price to hit the median line around the .618. So far it ran into a trap - abcd at the .382, which is how a trade sets up against the trade. This is the same as the bear setup in qqq and spy yesterday in bigger time frames

When I say not that common, I mean a lot of work has to be done to get there. Stop outs, singles and bail as it's not acting right, areas that don't trigger, scratches because it triggers but isn't following through and a bail seems best, and so on. Then one catches a nice move. Percentage-wise it's not that common with the style I prefer. I like to 'dabble', take shots. Poke and prod and test it out. Do probing plays.That's the way I like to play it. Most don't like that kind of approach, and that's fine.

If this were poker they'd say I like to play most hands, but I'm quick to get out. That can be a disadvantage in poker in one sense, if they get to know you only play it big when you have a hand (so you need to bluff and fake them somewhat to mix it up). This isn't an issue with the market, you can stay with it only when it really goes and the market doesn't 'read' you. Or, as most seem to do, only play the very best setups from the beginning (something I highly recommend until one is very advanced at reading price action). Two of my better slogans are: "There is almost always a way in" and "I feel I can manage my way out of just about anything". Hence, my style.

Nice stuff there, rat.

And yeah, as I suspected, that sweep was it. Win/win.

if this is still the end of major 1, then were in minor 5 of major 1, and spx 5=1 at 1763
If this is already major 3, then this is 3 of 3, and it goes a lot farther on this move.
Either way it gets down there eventually, it's just a question of how and when from what I see.

Originally posted by jimkane

Nice charts, rat. They all show what I am expecting, this has another leg down that is unfolding right now. Then a bigger bounce, then some more downside. At least that's what I think is mostly likely unfolding. I have a lot of weekly stuff around 1700 and then 1600. I'm really hoping for at least a 900 handle, though...

good points jim

Originally posted by jimkane

When I say not that common, I mean a lot of work has to be done to get there. Stop outs, singles and bail as it's not acting right, areas that don't trigger, scratches because it triggers but isn't following through and a bail seems best, and so on. Then one catches a nice move. Percentage-wise it's not that common with the style I prefer. I like to 'dabble', take shots. Poke and prod and test it out. Do probing plays.That's the way I like to play it. Most don't like that kind of approach, and that's fine.

If this were poker they'd say I like to play most hands, but I'm quick to get out. That can be a disadvantage in poker in one sense, if they get to know you only play it big when you have a hand (so you need to bluff and fake them somewhat to mix it up). This isn't an issue with the market, you can stay with it only when it really goes and the market doesn't 'read' you. Or, as most seem to do, only play the very best setups from the beginning (something I highly recommend until one is very advanced at reading price action). Two of my better slogans are: "There is almost always a way in" and "I feel I can manage my way out of just about anything". Hence, my style.

tomorrow should be quite interesting, and I don't have a read on it at all. Open sunny side up, and sell off hard? Or spike down and v bottom?

right.

Originally posted by rat89

good points jim

Originally posted by jimkane

When I say not that common, I mean a lot of work has to be done to get there. Stop outs, singles and bail as it's not acting right, areas that don't trigger, scratches because it triggers but isn't following through and a bail seems best, and so on. Then one catches a nice move. Percentage-wise it's not that common with the style I prefer. I like to 'dabble', take shots. Poke and prod and test it out. Do probing plays.That's the way I like to play it. Most don't like that kind of approach, and that's fine.

If this were poker they'd say I like to play most hands, but I'm quick to get out. That can be a disadvantage in poker in one sense, if they get to know you only play it big when you have a hand (so you need to bluff and fake them somewhat to mix it up). This isn't an issue with the market, you can stay with it only when it really goes and the market doesn't 'read' you. Or, as most seem to do, only play the very best setups from the beginning (something I highly recommend until one is very advanced at reading price action). Two of my better slogans are: "There is almost always a way in" and "I feel I can manage my way out of just about anything". Hence, my style.

One can only hope. Still, that would be a long ways from my ultimate fantasy of S&P breaking 400... But, I'd take it. For now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/if-credit-right-sp-facing-40-crash

Now, a real cool thing that frequently happens is if the Dow cash closes above the key level, and then they bring the futures down before they close to be the equivalent of below the key level. That not uncommonly occurs, and leaves one wondering...