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MarcinO
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Posts: 5,506
On Friday Pound stopped right on a monster level, so the move up might be done, at least for a while. However, it likes deep W4s testing W2 highs (in a downtrend), so one more impulse to 1.4260-70 won't be any surprise.

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6b 2016 04 17 png
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
But, is it a CD leg or a 'W3'? See, the pattern only determines the setup, not if we want to take it. 'Context' does that. So there are endless ABCD's all over the place, just like there are endless snap back reversals and candlestick patterns and so on, and good traders don't take all of them regardless of positioning.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Super key point. ABCD at KZ at super-key line. So, easy long trade, right? Only 'context' can answer that. If the 'context' has one wanting to go long, then this is an awesome setup. But no matter how good the setup is, if 'context' says no, then it's a 'no trade'. 'Context' and idea first, then the setup, not the other way around.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
If this is headed up to at least test that downsloping TL, then this was a great setup. I've been clear that I am long side bias, so I thought this was a good area here, but recall I had my odds not overly favorable. Those odds, though, were for an upside break of the area, which it did. Still, I am not overly confident in strong upside (or even possibly any more upside).
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
The best rule is trade when the conviction is strong, stand aside when it is not. If one is highly skilled, then some dabbling can be okay when the conviction is moderate. I post thoughts in here at all times, whenever there is action to study, not just when the 'context' says trade.
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JaLee
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Posts: 103
It is making more sense... the smaller ABCD in the larger ABCD tricked me.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Now if this got some legs a nice finish would be 2100-2102. It seems pretty labored, though.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I can explain that one to you, just not in here.


Originally posted by JaLee

It is making more sense... the smaller ABCD in the larger ABCD tricked me.
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JaLee
Rep: 0
Posts: 103
Sounds good : )
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
This is just too labored. I don't like it too much. It may still resolve up, but the action is very poor. I can't believe it's so weak it doesn't even want to test that TL at 96.75-97.00 area. C'mon, 'You can do it!' -Tony Little
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
As soon as Guy figures out how to get topics sticky and locked working for me again, I am going to do a page referencing all my movie, TV commercial, and song quotes and such, so I don't have to keep saying where they come from.
JA
JaLee
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Posts: 103
It's been a wonderful week for me. I want to thank everybody for their comments and charts and I'm really happy to be included here. This is a breath of fresh air to be with a group like this. Thanks to all for putting up with my "newbie" questions and learning process. Hopefully I can climb the learning curve and be up on the slope where you all are! Everybody have a great weekend and will see you on Monday!