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# ES Thursday 8-18-16

I had somebody run some probabilities for me and based on my input he calculated that there is only a 2% chance that we don't hit EITHER an overnight midpoint or an overnight high or low on ANY day ...so those are damn good odds that any day will hit one of those 98 % of the time. From Wednesdays trade I think 75 - 76.50 and 71 are the lines to watch. We know we still have our old friend the 83 to watch on the upside too. Good luck. I like the work we are all putting into the OR trades. Very cool !

Let me add an official request to see if at some point somebody can backtest how often we hit a plus or minus 4 ? I assume it would be a huge percent of the time and the better question would be " how often do we hit it in the first 90 minutes of trade?" This is adding on to Big Mikes work he posted in Wednesdays thread. Gheesh...this may make me into a break out trader.
How far back did the probabilities run go? I ask because, the +/-4 would be very easy to run even visually, my method for these types of studies. Maybe if we each took a year or 2 it would be done very quickly.

Good job Bruce
Originally posted by BruceM

I had somebody run some probabilities for me and based on my input he calculated that there is only a 2% chance that we don't hit EITHER an overnight midpoint or an overnight high or low on ANY day ...so those are damn good odds that any day will hit one of those 98 % of the time. From Wednesdays trade I think 75 - 76.50 and 71 are the lines to watch. We know we still have our old friend the 83 to watch on the upside too. Good luck. I like the work we are all putting into the OR trades. Very cool !

Let me add an official request to see if at some point somebody can backtest how often we hit a plus or minus 4 ? I assume it would be a huge percent of the time and the better question would be " how often do we hit it in the first 90 minutes of trade?" This is adding on to Big Mikes work he posted in Wednesdays thread. Gheesh...this may make me into a break out trader.
I think the +/- 4 percentage would be huge even in the 1st 90M.

Coincidentally the +/-4 target is pretty much what my crony does that takes off at 2 points, it lines up w/ +/-4 pretty well.
ok i new to this research..so it could be flaw..i only have data going back 18 days on the 60 min chart..so i cant tell how many times it pass back and forth thro the open range..small size sample..the drawdown is from the open of the 60 min bar.so when it pass thro open more than once it is wrong..maybe a mistake to include it here.

date +-4 time hit. draw down

7/25 -4 1st 60 min 1point
7/26 +4 1st 60 min .25 point
7/27 -4 1 st 60min 1 point
728 -4 1 st 60 min 3.5 point....i think it went thro OR twice
7/29 +4 1st 60 min 2.5 point
8/1 -4 1st 60 min 1 point
8/2 -4 1 st 60 min 1.75 point
8/3 +4 1 st 60 min 3.75 point
8/4 -4 1 st 60 min 3.25 point
8/5 +4 1 st 60 min 1.50 point
8/8 -4 1 st 60 min 1 point
8/9 +4 1st 60 min 1.25 point
8/10 -4 1st 60 min 1 point
8/11 +4 2nd 60 min 2.5 point
8/12 +4 2nd 60 min 2 point
8/15 +4 1st 60 min .25 point
8/16 -4 1st 60 min 1 point
8/17 -4 1 st 60 min 1 point

so out of 18 times 16 of those times where hit in the 1 st 60min..

now it looks i got something to do other than watch the market..figure out how to load more data into my trading platform..
I like the idea of targeting the 79.25 - 80 area....I thought it was a minor area and didn't mention it last night but seeing the Overnight action and where the current midpoint stands leads me to think that the area will have more meaning then I thought....I need 75 - 76.50 to hold in order to target that....I want to comment on these other posts after trading
these go back a minimum of 12 years but let me dig out the hard copies of data that I had to confirm....this was done when Paul was visiting the forum and he ran some studies.....
Originally posted by Big Mike

How far back did the probabilities run go? I ask because, the +/-4 would be very easy to run even visually, my method for these types of studies. Maybe if we each took a year or 2 it would be done very quickly.

Good job Bruce
Originally posted by BruceM

I had somebody run some probabilities for me and based on my input he calculated that there is only a 2% chance that we don't hit EITHER an overnight midpoint or an overnight high or low on ANY day ...so those are damn good odds that any day will hit one of those 98 % of the time. From Wednesdays trade I think 75 - 76.50 and 71 are the lines to watch. We know we still have our old friend the 83 to watch on the upside too. Good luck. I like the work we are all putting into the OR trades. Very cool !

Let me add an official request to see if at some point somebody can backtest how often we hit a plus or minus 4 ? I assume it would be a huge percent of the time and the better question would be " how often do we hit it in the first 90 minutes of trade?" This is adding on to Big Mikes work he posted in Wednesdays thread. Gheesh...this may make me into a break out trader.

I like how O/N high is in the range of the plus 4 ....a big OR today
i gott cute buy the 80 and reversal at 78.25..now i am sweating lol
gap in data at 2080.75 stopped me from going short at OR low and holding longs for plus 4 still
81 is my stop and reversal to long
this is easy for me now i am holding a loser..lol
bruce i got 4 trades with 1.5

1) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
2)short at 78.25 stopout at 79.75
3) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
4) long at 81 then plus 4 hit..

so loss of 5 which is still better than what i did and using the full OR as stop..

mike yes i wonder what i was doing too..slip back to the old days..everybody wants the good old days back when there old..lol got to joke about it but i know it was very bad and stupid of me to do what i did..
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