Believe it or not I am Bullish Cable here

gdx daily - posted this a while ago as an alternative to the bull scenario. It's possible that the move ended at 31.79, that the move down to 25.17 was major [1] down, followed by an abc for major [2] ending at 28.56. Major [3] now underway with an impulse move down.

Clear 1234 Kane continuation pattern. All criteria met. Why are you bullish? Trade with the trend trust the pattern. Don't try and fit something in that is not there. I actually saw the pattern, but for some reason I thought that it was going to reverse. Did not loose as no trend line break on 4H. However did not gain the 3-400 pips in the last day or two. Lesson learned, I hope! I am kinda hard headed !!!!

This one however F**ked me. I was bullish from I don't know when. But again the pattern was clear as day, oh and by the way, this is by far, Jim's pattern that I have made the most money on. You would think that I would know it by now. This pattern is most prevalent in waves 2 and 4, so it should have been clear that the main thrust was down although the prevailing trend was up. So point 1 should always be in the direction of the move, bullish or bearish, wave 4, or wave 2.


Correct





Incorrect






Yeah, this one cost me, but I got it now! LOL . I love this game.....

Jim, where are you?

Hi Duane. My expectatons were similar to yours, so I didn't make a fortune either.
Right now, I am thinking that current W3 will send Cable down to 1.2630-50, and then maybe we will see a major bearish correction, similar in size to your CD leg / W2. They like to play such dirty games in the Pound to trick people in.

Originally posted by Duane

Clear 1234 Kane continuation pattern. All criteria met. Why are you bullish? Trade with the trend trust the pattern. Don't try and fit something in that is not there. I actually saw the pattern, but for some reason I thought that it was going to reverse. Did not loose as no trend line break on 4H. However did not gain the 3-400 pips in the last day or two. Lesson learned, I hope! I am kinda hard headed !!!!

Click image for original size

4PT is one of the trickiest patterns, as you never know whether the move is done when it fails to make a new high/low or it starts a complex correction. Then, you will be always looking at standard AB=CD region and even if you come up with the idea of 4PT scenario, you encounter a problem of SL placement. Standard size leeway (range between SL and low/high of suppoosed correction end) may happen to land at or close to AB=CD level. What then? Place SL below AB=CD or above it? These are hard decisions, especially if one has to make them in short time.

Originally posted by MarcinO

4PT is one of the trickiest patterns, as you never know whether the move is done when it fails to make a new high/low or it starts a complex correction. Then, you will be always looking at standard AB=CD region and even if you come up with the idea of 4PT scenario, you encounter a problem of SL placement. Standard size leeway (range between SL and low/high of suppoosed correction end) may happen to land at or close to AB=CD level. What then? Place SL below AB=CD or above it? These are hard decisions, especially if one has to make them in short time.

I see your point Marcino, However, if I think it is a 4pt pattern the answer is definitely below and at the appropriate level for the trade, a trade is a trade. If it stops me out, I will try again the next level. The risk reward level on these trade are such that a few stop outs will not matter if proper capital management is used. My problem is taking trades out of CONTEXT, Cable clear down trend, why look for reversal? Larger timeframes pointing south, why take a trip to Canada? Small losses do not bother me as much as getting out of a trade and trying to outsmart the market. I did not follow my plan, my bad. Plus the Mets lost. Not a good day.....

Another 4PT?

Got it. Thanks for explanation, Duane.

Originally posted by Duane

Originally posted by MarcinO

4PT is one of the trickiest patterns, as you never know whether the move is done when it fails to make a new high/low or it starts a complex correction. Then, you will be always looking at standard AB=CD region and even if you come up with the idea of 4PT scenario, you encounter a problem of SL placement. Standard size leeway (range between SL and low/high of suppoosed correction end) may happen to land at or close to AB=CD level. What then? Place SL below AB=CD or above it? These are hard decisions, especially if one has to make them in short time.

I see your point Marcino, However, if I think it is a 4pt pattern the answer is definitely below and at the appropriate level for the trade, a trade is a trade. If it stops me out, I will try again the next level. The risk reward level on these trade are such that a few stop outs will not matter if proper capital management is used. My problem is taking trades out of CONTEXT, Cable clear down trend, why look for reversal? Larger timeframes pointing south, why take a trip to Canada? Small losses do not bother me as much as getting out of a trade and trying to outsmart the market. I did not follow my plan, my bad. Plus the Mets lost. Not a good day.....

Cable in 1.2640's. This is where some nice reaction may start.

Hi Duane, were you asking me or yourself? ;)

The daily I showed is the bear scenario, which shows a completion at 31.79, a drop for wave 1, an abc for wave 2, and now is in wave 3. It may bounce here basis gdx 22.58 but targets are 21.94 and 17.84

Originally posted by Duane

Clear 1234 Kane continuation pattern. All criteria met. Why are you bullish? Trade with the trend trust the pattern. Don't try and fit something in that is not there. I actually saw the pattern, but for some reason I thought that it was going to reverse. Did not loose as no trend line break on 4H. However did not gain the 3-400 pips in the last day or two. Lesson learned, I hope! I am kinda hard headed !!!!

Click image for original size

thanks duane....we shoulda woulda coulda been bearish at the top of wave 2 abc.....oh well