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ES K.I.S.S 5-10-18


how we have it framed out today..... upside targets are 2706 and 2708.50 and downside is 2701.25 and 2697.75............I'd like to see the downside come into play but as per the rules we just take the breaks of the one minute high and/or low....if the opening range hits one of your targets or trades through it then you use the next one to try and take entire position off....reason we don't hold runners in this case is because our numbers get revisited often...........so no reason to keep a runner on if you have no good target ......as mentioned long ago you can also use the opening range as a means to generate a target....for example if the OR is 2 points and the high of the OR is 2700 then you add 2 points to that high to come up with initial target of 2702...then you could try for 2704......and if low of OR was 2698 then you would try the sells for 2696 and 2694.


EDIT : 11:33 - to expand on this we know from experience and too many hours at the computer that the open can have a lot of volatility. So this methodology is nothing more than a means to get in and out of the market ( the long lost entry signals that so many desire). It's going to up, down or sideways. Sideways is bad for us. The profit targets come from probabilities. Here are a few and I have posted these before.

1) Test of an overnight high or low - 96 %
2) Previous days RTH range high or low - 85 % ( if we open inside the range of the previous day) NOTE : You need to always at least be thinking about any previous days range that we attempt to re-enter. Today we entered the high of 4-19....that is the low of the day today so far ....while not a target on the short you need to at least be aware of these - only exception is if you are trading this mechanically
3) Overnight midpoint - 80%
4) A test of at least one of the floor trader standard pivot point numbers based on yesterdays RTH range ( no fancy woodie, camilla blah, blah , blah stuff) 95%
5) A test of a weekly floor trader number 95 %
6) A test of a monthly floor number 95 % ( Ok, BruceM...we get it - 95% of the time on ANY time frame !)
7) The markets desire to go back to POC's - no real statistic on that
8) Markets desire to go back to either a 4 pm close or 4:15 close from SOME day ....which ever comes first...87 % ...This doesn't mean the prior day, it can be any day. The one that the market is closest to.


ok....so look at today....where is the 4 pm close from 4-18 ? 2708.75.....where is target two?

where was the overnight high ? 2706 ...where was target one ?

where was R1 for today ? 2706.75


so we are just saying that the market will either go up to our targets or down to our targets...nothing more.....( except the dreaded sideways) and even if you keep this completely mechanical you would have been a winner today........combining both ideas really gives this method power and can help you when we open far away from ANY of your predefined targets.

so ask yourself....how many tries will you take to get to your targets? Can you stop and reverse ? Today was initially a difficult day as we opened so close to one of our target.....these are the hardest days...but you would have been long and hit the 2706 for maybe a small win, then got short for a total loser and then the long entry ( 2nd try long) third trade made all the gravy....

The best trades happen when we are further away from our references.....

Folks who feel a need to be trading will be watching 2717 - 2718 real close...especially with the breakouts that happened at 2712.50 and 2709.50....
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