Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
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Definition of 'Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)'
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI are drawn from four broad categories of data:
The CFNAI corresponds to the index of economic activity developed by James Stock of Harvard University and Mark Watson of Princeton University in an article, "Forecasting Inflation," published in the Journal of Monetary Economics in 1999. The idea behind their approach is that there is some factor common to all of the various inflation indicators, and it is this common factor, or index, that is useful for predicting inflation. Research has found that the CFNAI provides a useful gauge on current and future economic activity and inflation in the United States.
Production and Income
Employment and Hours
Consumption and Housing
Sales, orders and Inventories
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI are drawn from four broad categories of data:
- production and income
- employment, unemployment, and hours
- personal consumption and housing
- sales, orders, and inventories
The CFNAI corresponds to the index of economic activity developed by James Stock of Harvard University and Mark Watson of Princeton University in an article, "Forecasting Inflation," published in the Journal of Monetary Economics in 1999. The idea behind their approach is that there is some factor common to all of the various inflation indicators, and it is this common factor, or index, that is useful for predicting inflation. Research has found that the CFNAI provides a useful gauge on current and future economic activity and inflation in the United States.
Production and Income
- Industrial Production: Manufacturing SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production Index SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Durable Manufacturing SA, 2002=100
- Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing SA, Percent of Capacity
- Industrial Production: Materials: Durable SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Final Products and Nonindustrial Supplies SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Nonindustrial Supplies SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Materials SA, 2002=100
- ISM Manufacturing: Production index SA, 50+ = Econ Expand
- ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index SA, 50+=Econ Expand
- Industrial Production: Final Products SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Business Equipment SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Nondurable Manufacturing SA, 2002=100
- Industial Production: Consumer Goods SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Durable Consumer Goods SA, 2002=100
- Industrial Production: Materials: Nondurable SA, 2002=100
- Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2005$
- Industrial Production: Nondurable Consumer Goods SA, 2002=100
- Private nonresidential construction, SAAR Mil$, Chained/2005$
- Industrial Production: Mining SA, 2002=100
- Real Disposable Personal Income SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2005$
- Public construction, SAAR Mil$, Chained/2005 (constructed)
- Industrial Production: Electric and Gas Uitilies SA, 2002=100
Employment and Hours
- All Employees: Goods-Producing Industries SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Private Nonfarm Payrolls SA, Thousands
- Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Manufacturing SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Durable Goods Manufacturing SA, Thousands
- National Association of Purchasing Managers: Employment Index
- All Employees: Retail and Wholesale Trade SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Service-Producing Industries SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Nondurable Goods Manufacturing SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Services SA, Thousands (constructed)
- Ratio: Help-Wanted Advertising in Newspapers/Number Unemployed SA,
- All Employees: Construction SA, Thousands
- Civilian Unemployment Rate SA, Percent
- Civilian Employment: Nonagricultural Industries SA, Thousands
- Civilian Employment: Sixteen Years & Over SA, Thousands
- Civilian Unemployment Rate: Men, 25-54 Years SA, Percent
- All Employees: Finance, Insurance and Real Estate SA, Thousands
- Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in Newspapers SA, 1987=100
- Weekly Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Transportation and Public Utilities SA, Thousands (constructed)
- Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing SA, Hours
- Average Weekly Overtime Hours: Manufacturing SA, Hours
- All Employees: Mining SA, Thousands
- All Employees: Government SA, Thousands
Consumption and Housing
- Housing Starts SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Housing Starts: West SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Housing Starts: Midwest SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Housing Starts: South SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Housing Starts: Northeast SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Manufacturers' Shipment of Mobile Homes SAAR, Thousands of Units
- Personal Consumption Expenditures SAAR, Bil./Chained/2005$
- Real Retail Sales SA, Millions/Chained/2005$
- Real Retail Sales: Durable Goods SA, Mil./Chained/2005$
- Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods SAAR, Bil./Chained/2005$
- Personal Consumption Expenditures: Nondurable Goods SAAR, Bil./Chained/2005$
- Real Retail Sales: Nondurable Goods SA, Mil./Chained/2005$
- Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services SAAR, Bil./Chained/2005$
- Personal Consumption Expenditures: Motor vehicles SAAR, Bil./Chained/2005$
Sales, orders and Inventories
- National Association of Purchasing Managers: Manufacturing: Diusion
- Real Manufacturing and Trade: Sales SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Sales: Manufacturing SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Sales: Manufacturing: Durable Goods SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Sales: Wholesale: Durable Goods SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- New Orders: Consumer Goods & Materials SA, Mil./Chained 2005
- Inventory/Sales Ratio: Manufacturing SA, Chained/2005
- Real Manufacturing & Trade: Inventory/Sales Ration SA, Chained/2005
- Sales: Merchant Wholesalers SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- National Association of Purchasing Managers: Inventories Index
- National Association of Purchasing Managers: Suppliers Deliveries Index
- Sales: Manufacturing: Nondurable Goods SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Real Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods Industries, Bil./Chained/2005
- Inventories: Retail Trade EOP, SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Real Manufacturing & Trade Inventories EOP, SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Inventory/Sales Ratio: Merchant Wholesalers SA, Chained/2005
- Sales: Wholesale: Nondurable Goods SA, Chained/2005
- Inventories: Merchant Wholesalers EOP, SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Inventories: Manufacturing EOP, SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Real Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Industries
- Inventories: Manufacturing: Nondurable Goods EOP, SA, Mil./Chained 2005
- Inventories: Manufacturing: Durable Goods EOP, SA, Mil./Chained/2005
- Inventory/Sales Ratio: Retail Trade SA, Chained/2005
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