BR
brokebackbernie
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Attached is an initial copy of the Trade Matrix ... This is a work in progress so please bear with me ... ;)
BR
brokebackbernie
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Posts: 41
Okay, first things first, the Column Headers ...
Tx = Targets, T1 through T10. The actual # is really a tick greater but since many of these trades are taken via paper, I assume worst case that they dont fill at that level. I would rather err on that side. So, basically, Targets are:
T1 = 1.00
T2 = 2.00
T3 = 2.50
T4 = 3.00
T5 = 3.50
T6 = 4.00
T7 = 4.50
T8 = 5.00
T9 = 7.00
T10 = 10.00
Mx = MacGyvers ... M1 is the only important one, M2..M4 were being used to track something else so they can be safely ignored. I also need to clear out the M1's for trades that aren't "MacGyverable".
Sx = Stops ... pretty straight-forward here, though I go with a 'worst case' scenario here as well.
S0 = B/E Stop / Scratch ... Assuming a bad fill of -.25
S1 = 1.00 Stop
S2 = 2.50 Stop ... Assuming some slippage, etc.
S3 = 3.25 Stop ... Basically, this is any stop over 2.50 (I just chose a number -- 3.25 -- so could run math against it). There really isn't any reason to ever stop out at this level since JP's largest wiggle room is 2.00 unless we end up with some ultra horrible fills due to extreme volatility runs.
Trade Type: This is how many total trades of this Trade Type have been taken.
Trade Type %: This is what the % of that number is relative to the total amount of trades taken (Noted in the Bottom Left Corner).
Tx = Targets, T1 through T10. The actual # is really a tick greater but since many of these trades are taken via paper, I assume worst case that they dont fill at that level. I would rather err on that side. So, basically, Targets are:
T1 = 1.00
T2 = 2.00
T3 = 2.50
T4 = 3.00
T5 = 3.50
T6 = 4.00
T7 = 4.50
T8 = 5.00
T9 = 7.00
T10 = 10.00
Mx = MacGyvers ... M1 is the only important one, M2..M4 were being used to track something else so they can be safely ignored. I also need to clear out the M1's for trades that aren't "MacGyverable".
Sx = Stops ... pretty straight-forward here, though I go with a 'worst case' scenario here as well.
S0 = B/E Stop / Scratch ... Assuming a bad fill of -.25
S1 = 1.00 Stop
S2 = 2.50 Stop ... Assuming some slippage, etc.
S3 = 3.25 Stop ... Basically, this is any stop over 2.50 (I just chose a number -- 3.25 -- so could run math against it). There really isn't any reason to ever stop out at this level since JP's largest wiggle room is 2.00 unless we end up with some ultra horrible fills due to extreme volatility runs.
Trade Type: This is how many total trades of this Trade Type have been taken.
Trade Type %: This is what the % of that number is relative to the total amount of trades taken (Noted in the Bottom Left Corner).
BR
brokebackbernie
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Posts: 41
Okay, now for the Trade Types ...
PP : Pivot Points -- Weekly ... We don't trade Dailies.
PDL/H : Previous Day Low/High +/- 2.5
IB4 : IB Trade when IB is approx 4.00 to 6.75 points in size.
IB7 : IB Trade when IB is approx 7.00+ in size.
oIB : This is a trade against the IB area from the outside of it (pullback, for example).
2.5ppb : The infamous Pendlebury Pullback.
WIBL/H : Weekly IB Trades, either Inside or Outside.
iVAL/H : Value Area Low/High from the 'inside' expecting rotation to the opposite end.
oVAL/H : Value Area Low/High from the 'outside' expecting continuation outside of value.
DVAL/H : Developing Value Area Trades.
2xIB : 2xIB.
50%IB : 50%IB -- Taken only against larger IB's; otherwise, wait for 2xIB.
1mOR : 1m Opening Range Trade.
SINGLES : Singles.
SYM : I was originally thinking about tracking trades expecting a symmetrical neutral outcome.
ivL/H : This can be ignored for now, has nothing to do with JP's teaching.
L/HOPD : 1-tick Low/High of Previous Day. Probably no point in tracking this one either as waiting for PDL/H is better.
BR
brokebackbernie
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Posts: 41
Okay ... now just a few things in general ...
(1) I have only recently begun to track the full 10 point targets. I used to stop following after +7.00 which is why there are so few 10-pointers. Some of the +7's went to +10, but I dont remember how many. Although this number is skewed, with additional data, it should work itself out over time.
(2) I just started this a few weeks ago and since I don't trade every day, I dont get all the trades. That said, a random sampling over time should be relatively representative.
(3) Sometimes JP will get on a trade early and ride it the whole day. There will be other trades that are viable trades (opposite JP) that JP won't take since he has already committed in a direction. I try to keep track of those 'middle trades' as well which is why you may see 3-5 trades added on a day when JP takes 1-2. I realize that once you are short, you can't be long and vice versa, but part of the point of this is to prove that this works over the long haul. Sometimes JP misses those early on trades and has to 'Fight City Hall' all day ... This is a compilation/sample of both scenarios.
(4) This is a work in progress and is pretty much still in its infancy. A lot can probably be improved upon and I welcome any thoughts or suggestions you might have to that end.
(1) I have only recently begun to track the full 10 point targets. I used to stop following after +7.00 which is why there are so few 10-pointers. Some of the +7's went to +10, but I dont remember how many. Although this number is skewed, with additional data, it should work itself out over time.
(2) I just started this a few weeks ago and since I don't trade every day, I dont get all the trades. That said, a random sampling over time should be relatively representative.
(3) Sometimes JP will get on a trade early and ride it the whole day. There will be other trades that are viable trades (opposite JP) that JP won't take since he has already committed in a direction. I try to keep track of those 'middle trades' as well which is why you may see 3-5 trades added on a day when JP takes 1-2. I realize that once you are short, you can't be long and vice versa, but part of the point of this is to prove that this works over the long haul. Sometimes JP misses those early on trades and has to 'Fight City Hall' all day ... This is a compilation/sample of both scenarios.
(4) This is a work in progress and is pretty much still in its infancy. A lot can probably be improved upon and I welcome any thoughts or suggestions you might have to that end.
DA
day trading
Rep: 39,586
Posts: 6,369
This is REALLY VALUABLE information BBB. This should allow us to more accurately assess "probabilities of outcome" for each trade type and the finessing of package size when entering trades.
Keep up with this excellent piece of reasearch!
Keep up with this excellent piece of reasearch!
DA
day trading
Rep: 39,586
Posts: 6,369
I can't think of any way that you can improve it now. To suggest collecting more data I think would be pointless because it looks like you're already collecting the right amount and in the exact detail that is required to do further analysis.
Perhaps on the days that you are not in the room, someone else in the room can collect the information and send it to you for inclusion. If PlantPro continues to type in JP's trade details then a quick glance through the day's trading transcript from the room should suffice if someone emails it to you. With this in mind, people should only type in the room when it is absolutely necessary to keep the room's transcript small and make the reader's job easier.
Those are my current thoughts so far...
Perhaps on the days that you are not in the room, someone else in the room can collect the information and send it to you for inclusion. If PlantPro continues to type in JP's trade details then a quick glance through the day's trading transcript from the room should suffice if someone emails it to you. With this in mind, people should only type in the room when it is absolutely necessary to keep the room's transcript small and make the reader's job easier.
Those are my current thoughts so far...
UK
uktrader
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Posts: 13
May I suggest an additional column that shows the % of trades for each trade type that were profitable? i.e. did not hit a stop before reaching T1. This would highlight the stronger setups.
Great work so far
Dave
Great work so far
Dave
BR
brokebackbernie
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Posts: 41
quote:
Originally posted by uktrader
May I suggest an additional column that shows the % of trades for each trade type that were profitable? i.e. did not hit a stop before reaching T1. This would highlight the stronger setups.
Great work so far
Dave
Sure ... should be easy to add ... ;)
UK
uktrader
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Posts: 13
Would it be possible to track whether or not the use of a macgyver was necessary to make a trade profitable? This might mean treating a macgyvered setup as a separate trade type. It would certainly be of interest those who do not yet have the ability to macgyver because it would be possible to compare macgyvered vs. non-mcgyvered trades.
BR
brokebackbernie
Rep: 0
Posts: 41
quote:
Originally posted by uktrader
May I suggest an additional column that shows the % of trades for each trade type that were profitable? i.e. did not hit a stop before reaching T1. This would highlight the stronger setups.
Great work so far
Dave
Added and part of the updated posting for today. ;)
BR
brokebackbernie
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Posts: 41
I'm going to start using the M4/4.00 Labeled column to keep track of how many MACG'd trades stop out on the full load. If it doesn't stop on the full load and only on the MACG entry, it will be considered a standard stop.
Basically, this column will only increment if a Trade is Taken, MacGyver'd, and then stops out before anything can be taken off. ;)
Basically, this column will only increment if a Trade is Taken, MacGyver'd, and then stops out before anything can be taken off. ;)