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ES short term trading 6-25-10


Here's the chart of what I'm seeing:

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jun25plan



Here are the numbers I will be watching for potential trades:

1065.5 - 1066.5: Yesterday's Lo and O/N Lo
1069.5-70.5: Yesterday's VPOC and close
1075-76: daily PP, O/N hi, and POC
1079-1081: that hugh composite HVN, prior daily hi, and yesterday's swing hi

O/N action has been consolidating sideways, no bias, and trying to build a base around yesterday's close. Price is currently below yesterday's value area, which suggests looking for shorts near 1075. However, with 4 days of selling, we are overdue for a bounce. I will be looking for a rally in the afternoon.
told ya bulls would be surprised... hopefully somebody was paying attention yesterday ...remember this post?...
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e76b63fd 74f8 49a5 b116 b161495cfae3
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....got home one min after the 1062.75 number or i would have scalped a long there...but i would have covered right here!...
30 min chart says next stop could be 1058.25 (which would be a prc buy, but the one min wants 1056 and change... and remember ,the daily said 1060.75, so, for all those reasons, i tend to favor slightly lower then a rebound this afternoon... but... the close is important, since a bearish engulfing candle may come to fruition on the weekly chart... stay tuned!!! lol... of course we could have already just seen the bottom (certainly a real possibility), but we'll just have to see!...thoughts anyone?
Originally posted by koolblue

30 min chart says next stop could be 1058.25 (which would be a prc buy, but the one min wants 1056 and change... and remember ,the daily said 1060.75, so, for all those reasons, i tend to favor slightly lower then a rebound this afternoon... but... the close is important, since a bearish engulfing candle may come to fruition on the weekly chart... stay tuned!!! lol... of course we could have already just seen the bottom (certainly a real possibility), but we'll just have to see!...thoughts anyone?



I like all your projections, except for the 1060 low.
20/20 hindsight, but I think the 1062.75 number that you projected may be the LoD. We're up almost 10pts from that number.
We are now back at the opening price. Encouraging for the bulls....
Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by PAUL9

Sure looks like the market is ready for a day of gains.


in phileo's 30min chart, descending trendline is obvious.

Potential reversal pattern that could take place has many names, all refer to same style PA (Trader Vic 1-2-3 bullish reversal pattern possible)

WHat could happen:
Price breaks above declining trendline, retraces alittle, stays above trendline and then goes UP past intermediate high.


O/N market has tipped hand for the signficance Support at 65 and resistance at 75.

75 also critical as most recent resistance obvious in 5 min 24hour prices. there have been 3 earnest attempts to move above it, all thwarted. next attempt at 75 (if it happens) would be the 4th attempt to break resistance.

I have saying, 4 is the door it either opens up or closes down.

iniitial break has to get past 75 and then find buying support in 75 area.


Not interested in losing my profits today, so the scenario you highlighted would be the only scenario where I would take another trade again.


Well, the only problem with the break above 1075 was that it caused a buying panic!

1079-1081 should be big resistance, so we'll have to see how this plays out
Where is Bruce today? taking day off?
Hope everything is alright.
Phileo, I cannot argue with your observation of the 79-81 area as big resist.

earlier today I posted that the 5 day average of the H vs O and the 5 day average of the L vs O were just average positive and negative divisions of the 5 day average range and when price has not been able to reach one or the other, try using the difference to extend the opposite.

this morning's 5 day average of L vs Open calculated to 1057.40

actual Low this morning was 1062.75. 1062.75 - 1057.40 = 5.35

if we assume that the 1062.75 was the LOD and we want to get an idea of where price High might be, add the 5.35 to the 5 day average of H v O:

this morning's 5 day average of H vs Open was 1075.35

1075.35 plus 5.35 = 1080.70

none of these "have to" show up, these are just the "average" 5 day price swings. One could have taken the average RTH range over the prior 5 trade days (17.95) and added it to the active RTH LOD (1062.75) and have come up with the same upside projection.

1062.75 + 17.95 = 1080.70.
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GRRRR.missed by 3 ticks.. ordr cancelled... i'll wait and watch... any move down to 1071.75 gets my attention otherwise ,i'll sit on my 7 handles and be happy...
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