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ES short term trading 1-12-11


On my last weekend preview, i tried to point out the vulnerability of the market to a significant decline , but pointed out that sentiment, and seasonality pointed to a possible peak at higher prices and mid to late this month. I didnt post a preview this weekend because for me, nothing has changed. We appear to be getting closer in time and price to the expected end result. I,for one will be watching the time near the 17th with particular interest. For todays trading ,i will be watching the 1280.50, 1284.25 levels for possible shorts. Remember Portugals bond sale goes off around 10:30am , i believe. Fwiw, 1257.75 was my line in the sand, believe it or not ,and we've bounced off it twice this week and held it! I remain bullish untill price action tells me not too! The levels i showed on the weekend preview, remain areas of expectation for me. Here is my updated calendar...
Click image for original size
01january2011calendar
Exactly, $ticks screaming nothing but long since 10:15 =)


Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!
Hmmm the ideal outcome will be 1284.50 by 14:15, my perspective that is. LOL

ES trading 1282.25 @ 13:55
The voiding point for the 1284 is 1279.75. The ES was at 1283.25, so one should not be waiting for 1284.00 unless entering at a lower price after hitting 1283.25.

I entered at 1281.00 with stop at 1279.75, with the objective at 1284.00. One time window 14:15 just expired but the ES still above the voiding point 1279.75. There is another time window at 14:34. __Some times it works, most times does not.

There are times when I abort the trade if the indicators are turning against my position at the indicated time.

Playing with time is difficult because it requires lots of data, but it can be done, and it's awesome when it does work

Will see. I'm still in.

ES trading 1282.25 @ 14:27
quote]Originally posted by i1hunter

Hmmm the ideal outcome will be 1284.50 by 14:15, my perspective that is. LOL

ES trading 1282.25 @ 13:55
[/quote]
Time, what a novelty. It looks like the last outburst will be in the last hour of the session
ES trading 1281.25 14:45
Originally posted by i1hunter

The voiding point for the 1284 is 1279.75. The ES was at 1283.25, so one should not be waiting for 1284.00 unless entering at a lower price after hitting 1283.25.

I entered at 1281.00 with stop at 1279.75, with the objective at 1284.00. One time window 14:15 just expired but the ES still above the voiding point 1279.75. There is another time window at 14:34. __Some times it works, most times does not.

There are times when I abort the trade if the indicators are turning against my position at the indicated time.

Playing with time is difficult because it requires lots of data, but it can be done, and it's awesome when it does work

Will see. I'm still in.

ES trading 1282.25 @ 14:27
quote]Originally posted by i1hunter

Hmmm the ideal outcome will be 1284.50 by 14:15, my perspective that is. LOL

ES trading 1282.25 @ 13:55

[/quote]
Drob
pls dont past post winning trades, of course timely explanations of the reason to take a position are always welcome.
That was it. stop out at 1279.75
Originally posted by i1hunter

Time, what a novelty. It looks like the last outburst will be in the last hour of the session
ES trading 1281.25 14:45
Originally posted by i1hunter

The voiding point for the 1284 is 1279.75. The ES was at 1283.25, so one should not be waiting for 1284.00 unless entering at a lower price after hitting 1283.25.

I entered at 1281.00 with stop at 1279.75, with the objective at 1284.00. One time window 14:15 just expired but the ES still above the voiding point 1279.75. There is another time window at 14:34. __Some times it works, most times does not.

There are times when I abort the trade if the indicators are turning against my position at the indicated time.

Playing with time is difficult because it requires lots of data, but it can be done, and it's awesome when it does work

Will see. I'm still in.

ES trading 1282.25 @ 14:27
quote]Originally posted by i1hunter

Hmmm the ideal outcome will be 1284.50 by 14:15, my perspective that is. LOL

ES trading 1282.25 @ 13:55


[/quote]
Originally posted by rburns

Drob
pls dont past post winning trades, of course timely explanations of the reason to take a position are always welcome.


No problem. I didn't actually post any trades though, just some guidance that $ticks are a useful tool for keeping a trader on the right side of the market and not to fight them.
Nice bounce from support at 1279.00 (R2) I'm giving it one more shot to the 1284.00

long 1279.75. Stop 1278.75. If it's a real support at 1279, it should not come down any lower.

ES trading at 1279.75. 15:29 Too late to take this trade but, I did.......
Man! finally! out @ 1284.00

ES trading @ 1283.50 16:07
Originally posted by i1hunter

Nice bounce from support at 1279.00 (R2) I'm giving it one more shot to the 1284.00

long 1279.75. Stop 1278.75. If it's a real support at 1279, it should not come down any lower.

ES trading at 1279.75. 15:29 Too late to take this trade but, I did.......
Very nice call hunter.


Originally posted by i1hunter

Nice bounce from support at 1279.00 (R2) I'm giving it one more shot to the 1284.00

long 1279.75. Stop 1278.75. If it's a real support at 1279, it should not come down any lower.

ES trading at 1279.75. 15:29 Too late to take this trade but, I did.......
Originally posted by BruceM

Are we missing a chart here ? Seems like something is lacking her eLorn!!
Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!



No chart missing. But just for you here it is...

TICK shows an early morning low of -514 before the market rallies. The trend line from that low acted as a floor for equities and TICK never tested that again until close to 1:00pm.

You can see most of the day TICK spent its time above the zero line. This is equity buying and I'll make the case that the equity futures market follows the equity market, not the other way around.

A few sharp drops nearly touching -800 TICK between 2:00-2:30 but interestingly no 1-min close below that early trend line and prices found support as TICK rose back above the zero line and pretty much stayed above it into the close.

Click image for original size
tick1122011