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ES short term trading 1-12-11


On my last weekend preview, i tried to point out the vulnerability of the market to a significant decline , but pointed out that sentiment, and seasonality pointed to a possible peak at higher prices and mid to late this month. I didnt post a preview this weekend because for me, nothing has changed. We appear to be getting closer in time and price to the expected end result. I,for one will be watching the time near the 17th with particular interest. For todays trading ,i will be watching the 1280.50, 1284.25 levels for possible shorts. Remember Portugals bond sale goes off around 10:30am , i believe. Fwiw, 1257.75 was my line in the sand, believe it or not ,and we've bounced off it twice this week and held it! I remain bullish untill price action tells me not too! The levels i showed on the weekend preview, remain areas of expectation for me. Here is my updated calendar...
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01january2011calendar
Thanks DRob.

One more gift from the market, just have to be in the right place at the right time and "take action" in order to receive it.
Are we missing a chart here ? Seems like something is lacking her eLorn!!
Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!
I have to go with Rburns and agree that we need to see an explaination on this to help it be meaningfull...even if it's just " $ticks couldn't get a minus 500 reading at this time shows no sellers etc..."or something
Originally posted by DRob

Exactly, $ticks screaming nothing but long since 10:15 =)


Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!

nicely done and telling us it was an R2 level helps us understand the reason for the trade
Originally posted by i1hunter

Nice bounce from support at 1279.00 (R2) I'm giving it one more shot to the 1284.00

long 1279.75. Stop 1278.75. If it's a real support at 1279, it should not come down any lower.

ES trading at 1279.75. 15:29 Too late to take this trade but, I did.......
sure wish someone would come back at me and say " Hey BruceM, you sold two ticks off that current high.....so what was the reason?" Is there just no interest and would most like to see threads where we just post trades.?..perhaps we should have a "trade posting thread"...anyway I will be putting together a chart and another thread with this trade in it for anyone interested..
Originally posted by BruceM

no test of previous 30 minute bars low yet today..so my bias has been short ...second try from 83.25 ...will explain later
BruceM,
I was and am quite interested in your reasoning. I was hoping that you would put a detailed post later...
Regards.
Originally posted by BruceM

Are we missing a chart here ? Seems like something is lacking her eLorn!!
Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!



No chart missing. But just for you here it is...

TICK shows an early morning low of -514 before the market rallies. The trend line from that low acted as a floor for equities and TICK never tested that again until close to 1:00pm.

You can see most of the day TICK spent its time above the zero line. This is equity buying and I'll make the case that the equity futures market follows the equity market, not the other way around.

A few sharp drops nearly touching -800 TICK between 2:00-2:30 but interestingly no 1-min close below that early trend line and prices found support as TICK rose back above the zero line and pretty much stayed above it into the close.

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tick1122011