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YMM1, (3, -1), profitable Strategy, 2.618% profitable


Hi,
Basis YMM1 (June e-mni $5 Dow futures):
Trading from unchanged, 12631, and fading the first move, i.e., -1 of (3, -1):
12631 - the Stretch calculation = 12631 - 27 = 12604 (12601 = low at 21:52PDT).
12631 - 27 = 12604, representing the fade, i.e., -1 of (3, -1)
12604 + 27 + 27 + 27 = 12685 (high = 12692 (12694 = high at 07:01PDT)
This completes the 3 of the (3, -1) formula.

Below you'll find a corrolating 2.618% entry level.

Measuring from the 9 May high, 12677 - 2.618 of the 10 May Stretch = 12677 - 70 = 12607. 12601 = low (21:52PDT)
grednfer, were you fading the 1x sstretch from settlement ? if not what was the reason for the fade? thanks !

what is the +/-42 you mentioned?

Originally posted by grednfer

Hunter,
Your strat worked again today.......
Faded after open @
yesterdays close +42 = 710......
yeilded 100 points so far......and still draining.
(now theres also diagonal off the top at 711 too)


There were actually 2 opportunties to do this.....
one last night @ 710 and one this morning.....

very cool....
The +/- 42 and 60-70 ones work well.....
the way I look at it now, want to see a lower low or a good retest otherwise not interested on the long side unless we get good trendline breaks and retest, the next number down on SPX is 1329.20 (423) , on Dow a retest of the 12502 would be good to see
Yeah....my machines are set to look at momentum around the 42 and 60-70 levels as well as the pivots.

The +/- 42 from the previous close seems to have significance....This one happended to coincide with the diagonal off the top....so it had extra power I guess.

The +/- 60-70 range is special too....like 42 didn't work yesterday but the 60-70 sure did.....

All the indices are in a "declining wedge" which is very bearish.....so I'm primarily trading short.

I've found with the hunter method though, you can't necessarily reverse the trade direction until the next day as the numbers are based on the previous close....kinda the pregnant elephant approach (can only run so far before it gets tired).

Its a framework......
YM is chopping now under the 555 pivot so we'll see it can recapture support......

I'm out, the machines automatically take profit at 200.

So we'll see what happens Sunday and Monday.
i agree with your numbers silverharp, might take a shot at a long down there if it is an orderly move down, otherwise i doubt it will show any dvg...

was stopped on the long as well (from 567, 20 pt stop). Trading very very small since i am rather new to this strategy. i was skeptical of that long to say the truth since i did not have any matching fib projections in the area, which more often than not help reinforce a puase/turning point

Originally posted by Silverharp

the way I look at it now, want to see a lower low or a good retest otherwise not interested on the long side unless we get good trendline breaks and retest, the next number down on SPX is 1329.20 (423) , on Dow a retest of the 12502 would be good to see
I let em take the 555 pivot long as momo passed up through it, but its kinda slow and squishy.......1M averages converging on the 200.
wow, congratulations, pretty impressive...

how do you define momentum around your levels

also, what stop losses do you use in your type of trades?

thanks for your response btw

Originally posted by grednfer

Yeah....my machines are set to look at momentum around the 42 and 60-70 levels as well as the pivots.

The +/- 42 from the previous close seems to have significance....This one happended to coincide with the diagonal off the top....so it had extra power I guess.

The +/- 60-70 range is special too....like 42 didn't work yesterday but the 60-70 sure did.....

All the indices are in a "declining wedge" which is very bearish.....so I'm primarily trading short.

I've found with the hunter method though, you can't necessarily reverse the trade direction until the next day as the numbers are based on the previous close....kinda the pregnant elephant approach (can only run so far before it gets tired).

Its a framework......
YM is chopping now under the 555 pivot so we'll see it can recapture support......

I'm out, the machines automatically take profit at 200.

So we'll see what happens Sunday and Monday.
Hi,
It takes two good eyes in the right mind. Of course being able to count to the last four times the YMM1 12700 (12713 high 13 May Friday) area failed, whereafter, prices fell lower by a couple hundred points. YMM1 futures were held below 12700'ish, again.

I took profits elsewhere. But here's the (3, -1) formula that I wasn't pay attention to. From the first -35 points to fade, YMM1 futures rallied only 76 points (1.618% of the Stretch, 55 points).
Trading from unchanged, 12672 - 56 - 56 -56 = 12504 (12507 = low).

The (3, -1) formula count started after a +1.618% bounce (actually 76 points not 56). That became (-1) of (3, -1). -35 points, +76, back to unchanged and from unchanged, and then 12672 (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) = 12672 - 56 - 56 - 56 = 12504. 12507 = low.

For the last week, YMM1 has traded in an 80 point to 90 point range on either side of 12600. Now the price rotation is changing from up to down, i.e., (-1) being up and the (3) of the (3, -1) formula being down.
Thanks again for sharing your mutual interests.
Hi,
It takes two good eyes in the right mind. Of course being able to count to the last four times the YMM1 12700 (12713 high 13 May Friday) area failed, whereafter, prices fell lower by a couple hundred points. YMM1 futures were held below 12700'ish, again.

I took profits elsewhere. But here's the (3, -1) formula that I wasn't pay attention to. From the first -35 points to fade, YMM1 futures rallied only 76 points (1.618% of the Stretch, 55 points).
Trading from unchanged, 12672 - 56 - 56 -56 = 12504 (12507 = low).

The (3, -1) formula count started after a +1.618% bounce (actually 76 points not 56). That became (-1) of (3, -1). -35 points, +76, back to unchanged and from unchanged, and then 12672 (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) = 12672 - 56 - 56 - 56 = 12504. 12507 = low.

For the last week, YMM1 has traded in an 80 point to 90 point range on either side of 12600. Now the price rotation is changing from up to down, i.e., (-1) being up and the (3) of the (3, -1) formula being down.
Thanks again for sharing your mutual interests.
Hi,
It takes two good eyes in the right mind. Of course being able to count to the last four times the YMM1 12700 (12713 high 13 May Friday) area failed, whereafter, prices fell lower by a couple hundred points. YMM1 futures were held below 12700'ish, again.

I took profits elsewhere. But here's the (3, -1) formula that I wasn't pay attention to. From the first -35 points to fade, YMM1 futures rallied only 76 points (1.618% of the Stretch, 55 points).
Trading from unchanged, 12672 - 56 - 56 -56 = 12504 (12507 = low).

The (3, -1) formula count started after a +1.618% bounce (actually 76 points not 56). That became (-1) of (3, -1). -35 points, +76, back to unchanged and from unchanged, and then 12672 (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) (-1.618% Stretch) = 12672 - 56 - 56 - 56 = 12504. 12507 = low.

For the last week, YMM1 has traded in an 80 point to 90 point range on either side of 12600. Now the price rotation is changing from up to down, i.e., (-1) being up and the (3) of the (3, -1) formula being down.
Thanks again for sharing your mutual interests.
Hunter....yeah definitely toppy...also May after a two year rally from 6600......
They really pounded NQ towards the close, much more than YM.


Ayn,
How do I define momentum? Oh boy thats the BIG question. The theme of this project is "return to simplicity"....so the YM machine is only trading the Hunter Algo and the pivots(and 50% of the pivots).

So while I have more complex rules for assessing momo, right now I'm just using an EMA, probably comparable to the 4 or 5 bar on the 1M chart.....No stops....but it does have exit criteria if momentum reverses........the 555 trade yielded nothing.


Its all a work in progress....but I like the pivots and I like the hunter fade thing......

Have a good week-end.
was hoping the es would go to its 1.618 at the open which would have likely pushed ym to its 2.618 stretch...that would have been the ideal scenario for me to get long...