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ES Tuesday 4-10-12


The one minute just confirmed the spike in volume in the 30 minute wasn't buyer optimisim but rather a chance to unload trapped longs. Which created a chance to trap more longs. Having said that I might buy the close this evening and sell at the open.

What do you see?
forgot to paste the link for the chart

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1334075832462.png


Originally posted by NickP

well, that was sthg...got stopped twice, first on my small long and then from the 65.5 level that i thought was gonna produce a small bounce (2 pt stop on both)...now long from 58.5 and 57.5 and unloading stuf here at 60.5 on the air fill (and weekly low from the week of 3/12)

the area for the long came from this chart below, initial projection after the friday's job data...i also had a vpoc from 3/8 (56.75 was the peak volume from that day)

sorry i did not update earlier but i don't have bruce's ability to post, trade and make money; i can usually manage 2 out of the three !
just took the loss at 58.50....
thats the theme today, just got ran too, not very nice when it immediately bounces a handle, might of just swept me for another long reversal. oh well, i liked the setup, and will look to get back in if it sets up.

Originally posted by BruceM

just took the loss at 58.50....
good trade and exit!

Originally posted by NickP

now long from 58.5 and 57.5 and unloading stuf here at 60.5 on the air fill (and weekly low from the week of 3/12)

the area for the long came from this chart below, initial projection after the friday's job data...i also had a vpoc from 3/8 (56.75 was the peak volume from that day)
today Nick I have the ability to post but not trade well....lol...it happens so it's good that the losers are posted too. Nobody should think that we do well all the time but we sure try. Outside the 90 minute window is always harder for me but I still love it even when it gets frustrationg

starting new longs at 54.50 and will be aggressive as long as this is forming the SECOND set of single prints on the day..target is to fill in second set and the 58.50



WHEN we trend we lose ! lets see how much selling this pig has left !!
ultimate goal is for me to try and hold something to get above 62.50 on runners but that is aggressive and good chance I will not have much ammo left even if it gets back there
so the big low volume are is just about 2 points wide up at the 63.50 - 65.50 area. Most can see that we have made lower lows on the 30 minute all day ( one time framing). that will change and they will pop out a high so my overal plan includes that concept to happen soon.

The market alternates between trend and pause ( mostly pausing ) but when we trend then we need to look for signs of consolidation about to happen. The drop in volume and the ending 12:30 bar being one of the lowest 30 minute range bars of the day leads me to think that they are trying to pause it now.

that's my long winded way of saying that the bias to the long side should play out better soon and I would avoid shorts .
Now that I got the 58.50 I have 4 runners working and this is specifically how I am managing them.

Trade back to 54.25 stops all out. Otherwise I will take two more off when we get the test of any previous 30 minute high regardless of where or when that happens .so currently trying to get that 1360 high. then I will try to get out on next one at 62.50..just below that low volume zone....and the last one if I am lucky enough to follow this planned exit strategy I have no clue on but my guess is I will tighten up once inside the current days LVN
as long as there is no retest of a previous 30 minute bars high I will look for longs...even if this current campaign runners get clipped out of the market! I was planning to make this my last campaign but have changed my mind due to the high probability of that high back retest
long again from 52.75..not many bars left for the 30 minute high run..will they make it a perfect day ? Doubtful from a statistical view
No I don't post everyday anymore. yesterday I got lured in by JDscotts attack on Monkey meat. Participation had dried up but perhaps it will return with an increase in volatility.