ES Monday 7-15-13

This is just something to work off of that I'm looking at in this crazy ES market. Maybe it's something that works with what anyone else has as significant levels to pay attention to. The HVNs will tend to be price magnets while LVNs will tend to be areas of potential price reversals fwiw.

Using Thinkorswim for Daily Pivots and Volume Profile … here are some levels that I have coming into Monday’s trading session. Most levels are below the current trading price this Sunday evening.

1674.25 Friday’s High … Daily R1 Pvt

1670 HVN on 5-day and 1-day … Daily Mid Pvt

1666.50 LVN on 5-day … Daily S1 Pvt

1660.75 PASR Support area … Thursday’s RTH Low

1644-46 HVN on 5-day and 20-day

1640 LVN on 5-day … Wkly Pvt Level … a 50% Fib Retracement from 6(?)days back low

MM

thanks MM..I'm using 71.75 as a target for shorts up off that high of last week you mentioned....holding inside fridays highs will be critical for us to ultimately get the close gap fill down near 70.50...so the net of all that babble is that I have two magnets today....

Here's something I am wondering about.

If you look at last week's MP, it was a double distribution. I saw a video interview of Dalton on You tube and he said that whenever there is a double distribution, he uses the value areas of the one closest to price.

If you merge Friday with Thursday of last week, you get
VAH 72.75
POC 70.25
VAL 65.75....


so far, that upper distribution VAH at 72.75 has been a support.

I mention this only because last week, On Tuesday, price jumped above the VAH of the prior week, it proved to be support and the market added 30 points over the next 3 days.

thanks paul..that was also the IB high of Friday...interesting...I can't take longs up here...so keeping my bias to the short side...still like 71.75 as the first magnet..

not much to do for me up here....I'm waiting until I see a 15 close under last weeks highs to think about the short again...otherwise we may just see a slow grind to push out the Ib high and I can't trade under these kind of market conditions....I need VOLUME

You need volume?

Want me to come into the market and swing some size for you?
LOL

gheesh..these slow rides up are a real pain...it requires too much patience which I donot have as a day trader

a 5 point gap today...the system gap fill traders will have stops 2.5 and 5 points above the open....they like using half the gap size as a stop ...so they risk 2.5 to get 5 points WHEN the gaps fill...some use the full gap spread as a stop..

so if we can get some buying ( to cover failed shorts) then it may be time to try fades again..near 77.50 and 1680 if the first level fails

yes Paul...swing some size....

and in order to throw out some other confluence think about this...

where did 1/2 the gap come into play ?...answer...the current days low is right there !!!

so take the open price and subtract the close of friday...divide by two !!!

trying to use 75 as a magnet now...all the volume still at the open print and in the center of the days range.....it's almost like being a position trader with such poor volume

nothing but higher lows on the 30 minute ( one time framing up)...that will change and they will test a previous bars low.....the billion dollar question is " How far up will we have to follow it up before that test comes ?"


and the next question " will I run out of money ( or patience )BEFORE that test happens ?"

poor lows and highs are more common in summer trade....so catching a top with a double top or a low with double low will happen more often than normal trading - outside of the summer months !

even so we never really know what will happen...be quick or dead....there is the test of the one timeframing.....should you hold for the 75 retest with that double top above ? sure wish I could tell ya..!! I have no probability for either now

Fridays lows had a triple low if you look at 30 minute bars...


so repeat after me..."be quick or dead " !!!