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ES July 1 2014


how i see it...not much to say..narrow range yesterday so will breakout traders win on a higher open or will us faders be able to drive prices back toward 84.....? us sellers may need to start after 9 A.m...volume in O/N is happening right at R1 and YD high area so that is first possible support if we open higher....I'm creating a big sell zone that starts at 57.50 and runs up to all time highs but would be more aggressive on shorts generated first at 57.50 - 58 and then at new all time highs.........keeping in mind that weekly R1 is at 62.75 too so that would be a separate spot for my last short idea today....shorts will only happen if O/N midpoint and/or the pivot of yesterday at 1954 hasn't been traded to yet...IT's 9 a.m and time to try
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yes,
Open to RTH L (5 day average) calcs to 52.00 for today...
after a move up like this, first obstacle is yesterday's High.
at the end of this period we will have POTENTIAL singles at 61.25...so that has to be revised first target if you are on this fade
well that's it for me...my only really good trade today....testing and holding above a previous all time high will most likely lead to IB high break and my runners want no part of that
I'D HAVE TO SEE a close on 30 minute under last weeks high to get interested in shorts or else a break of IB high that closes back inside the IB...otherwise not much for me to do and will have to let trend traders have their way...we fared ok considering it trended off the open...that's all we can expect as faders..........either lose a little or make a little...so today we made a little
my data is showing a one tic single print off of first 30 minute bars high...can anyone confirm..? Nice call on the the 64.50 Paul...this is plus 8 - plus 10 zone but I'd like to see us spend some time under Ib highs before thinking about the retest down to 61.25 again
Originally posted by BruceM

my data is showing a one tic single print off of first 30 minute bars high...can anyone confirm..? Nice call on the the 64.50 Paul...this is plus 8 - plus 10 zone but I'd like to see us spend some time under Ib highs before thinking about the retest down to 61.25 again


You are correct
Bruce,
that number is just an average, (it was no great call on my part)
there are really strong days when the 5 day average of HOD versus Open is exceeded before 10am, they can be very boring sideways to higher days as shorts trying to cover keep a floor under prices.

I really wish there were some way to know whether a gap up open is going to gap and go or gap and drop.

many traders are taught to use 2.5 - 4 point stops off key areas...Like a weekly R1 at 62.75....so some smart traders who wantto play will make a zone and look for price action entries off thats...so watch 65.25 - 67.75 for possible trades if u care to be aggressive on fades up here...plus 8 - 10 is here for confluence as mentioned
thanks Paul and Ti anon !!
I read somewhere (it might have been right here in other topic of mypivots) that we are now in time of seasonal strength until Jul 19.

I am looking at the VIX right now, sure looks like a 10 handle might print, currently the swing Low is 11.09.

OK that's it for me today. enjoy.
Thanks Bruce, I,d already long hit the hay by the time you sent this thru, but still good info to store away and use as needed......