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ES Thursday 7-16-15


Good morning to all. Most of the O/N inventory because it is above YD's settle so that is something to keep in mind as we get close to RTH open.
Currently we are opening outside of YD's range so that would define the trading plan.
There is a greenie up at 13 which lines up with the current O/N high at 13.5 . Beyond that there is a swing high at 17.5 and a greenie at 17.75
On the lower side we have a greenie at 3.75 (which is also YD's VPOC) and a prominent POC at 3.25 so that is an important area as well.
RTH open was outside of YD's range. So we should keep an eye out to see whether we gap and go or if we close the gap. we shall see which greenie gets touched first. we already touched 13 so now it is between 17.75 and 3.75 from YD. Since the O/N inventory was long and if we anticipate some inventory adjustment, going towards the O/N mid-pt and an attempt to close the gap, early action could be to the downside
no real sense of gap and go so far.... pretty muted action thus far...
HA,
according to ShadowTrader, everyone expects a liquidation break. He also noted that a liquidation break does not have to happen.

I guess I'm a dope, I think some weakness would be natural as bulls book short-term rofits.

Did anyone notice where the afternoon low was yesterday?, right at the top of the singles in the buying tail from 7/14.am , some sort of weakness (I expect) only because the greek stuff has sort of run it's course as a means of headline leverage influencing the markets.

I consider overnight a double distribution and I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of a bouce is 2109 is tested (on the first test, if that happens)
yup, i read his comments. very true. we need to make sure that our personal bias does not get in the way. i took a small short with the O/N greenie as the exit point because i figured that was a high odds play and it worked out. should be interesting to see how the day plays out.

i did not see that double distribution from O/N but i can see it now that you pointed it out. the lower distribution is pretty skinny but i can see why you think of a possible bounce from 2109. it is like the LVN separating 2 HVNs (except the lower HVN is not that big)

EDIT: and O/N mid-pt is also 2109 so nice confluence there
approaching O/N high... maybe worth a fade to the current VPOC at 12.5?
we got to the 30-min VPOC of 12.5 without getting to O/N high so that fade trade is kaput
very low confidence market. the B period low matches the A period low (also the low of the day) and there is only a 2-tick excess at the highs as well..
days like these are when you keep chanting to yourself 'be patient, dont take a bad trade, dont take a bad trade"
i am not doing this trade (just monitoring) but i would take a shot at a short here from 13/13.25 with a target price of 8 because that low does not look secure at all and i think they close the gap by the end of the day... again, not doing just saying
oh well, the highs dont look a whole lot better either... look for a break out of balance to either side but my bias is still to the downside considering the action of the past few days...
same year, 2012
pre open OpEx Fridays, gaps DOWN on opex Friday only fill about 47% of the time.
While above 200sma and following a 10day HIGH.

Last comment from me before open:.... see 47%, that's a coin-toss, useless info
It is dangerous to have expectations, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 2122 handle print today. (FRIDAY 7/17/15 ) and after that monitor for loss of upside momentum
If anyone is going to take profits tody, it is going to be long-sided traders, and in order for them to book profits, they have to sell.