So the line from my Friday's chart finally gave way with the close below it. We may also treat the last bounce as a return move and KIG to the trendline connecting major bottoms:



Let's see if the dark forces Jim has mentioned here so many times will really be able to counter the mounting downside pressure ...

THE WORK IS ALL HERE!!!!go back to the wall /stack post on 1/24... EVERY trade based on using ALL!!!! the geometry, not just the geometry that is being pushed,was based on buying exactly at the frequency of downsloping set....

though jim speaks of saving things for himself or only showing things to one on one students,EVERY SINGLE GEOMETRIC TOOL I USE HAS BEEN EXPLAINED AT THIS FORUM....

shmendel, roofer has a different style than mine, so make sure you don't get yourself too overloaded trying to grasp/add in his work before you are ready. He has predefined setups he is looking for, which he has explained in detail in many posts in here in the past. The best way to study those is to pore over the archived posts in here.

quote:

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Originally posted by jarek

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

Really sets up the big up day tomorrow.

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Do you really expect an up day tomorrow?

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Well, if that Nov 2 low was a significant area, then it is a good spot for this to do a bigger scale 'W2', and then some serious down. If so, all those ABCD's that roofer mentioned are all here, and this may be the BC leg of a bigger bearish ABCD. That might put it up into the 70's. That would be an ideal place for a bigger 'W2'. A lot of my comment was based on the 'first move is almost always wrong' Fed play, though, and it dropped down into the close, so I'd expect up for a few days, then. Given it did the drop as an ABCD, recall my previous post that said how incredible it might be if it somehow could form an ABCD on the move up.

It is also possible that the recent high wasn't an intermediate top, and this is the start of a 'W3' up. The weak futures in here, back at that LOD, is not a good sign for this, though. I'd expect if the premise is correct it would be trading up by now. But, maybe they flush it a bit more, then up it goes. Understand, I don't care what it does, I just look for setups and triggers. I don't spend much time predicting things. What I do highlight in here is to explain principles, not to make predictions. So, what I'm laying out are my most probable scenarios so I can be ready with areas I may be willing to trade against. I hope this all makes sense.

BTW, keep an eye on the 36 area, give or take, if they flush it down there.

Jim - I agree that there are many arguments favouring the move up together with this beautifull DT ABCD as potential BC leg of the W2 bigger ABCD. But I will stay with my count as for now. I simply can't refuse betting for this incredibly precise squaring of price and time right at Roofer's wall and stack.
I did a quick check of EW sites and majority is looking for continuation of W2 up. This should cause a lot of buying between here and the last bottom, but will also fuel the later downside if my count is correct.
And if it comes to 'first move is almost always wrong' Fed play, one can argue that after initial reaction the first move (albeit small) was to the upside ...

This is the update of my chart with the possible count:

This is the zoom of my recent chart with a major ML set. We may see yesterday's move as a classic Tim Morge's zoom and failure setup.
If correct then the next move down should reach the lower ML (currently below 900):

This is for my Polish colleagues. IF my S&P count is correct then this is what is developing with our futures. Please note the 0.382 retracements similar to S&P:

i would point out also that the exact requirements needed for the lightning trade shown at this forum were met with yesterdays price action in $spx.

Okay, 67 was it. See ya all Monday. Great posts, everyone.