Since not everybody here might be interested in such "exotic" market as Warsaw Stock Exchange I decided to start a seperate topic on it outside the regular trading discussions.

A well known setup developed on Friday suggesting high probability for reaching the downsloping ML. Of course anything can happen and there is remaining 7% chance of adverse scenario but that is what stops are for:

Medium term picture fits well to the downside scenario - probable W2 of the move from the top ended exactly at the line from the Schiff set.
The fact that the tools work so well right now might also suggest the importance of the October 23rd top.

On a much bigger timeframe there are clear signs of the possible top at X marks the spot, line connecting 3 pivots and ideal 38.6% retracement:

jarek----very nice charts... you are talking my language....

Thank you for the compliment Master. I've studied your thoughts and charts for tens of hours ...

Jarek, thanks for this topic and charts.

no master here..my friend joed says it best.. ''we post to keep ourselves sharp'''no reply is needed or expected....however, it is nice to see another trader catch on to what you are showing and doing...

Nice work, jarek. I'm going to throw my two cents in, whether it turns out to play out, or not. Although I agree we are at the critical area, I no longer see that recent high as a likely intermediate top. There is nothing technically on the charts to lead me to this right now (there will be if it blows out the current area), it's based on sentiment, reading of price action, and 'gut feel' (based on experience).

Here's the bottom line to this. For the market to go down the dollar has to go up. The dollar carry trade has to unwind, even if just a bit. The dollar shorts have to cover. Although the DX is in a key area, and the Euro, too, the price action is saying these areas won't likely hold. There simply is no reason to cover dollar shorts here. If anything, there is good reason for these guys to want to short more. If so, the dollar goes down, and the market goes up. This is the driver, the market is the responder. The dollar is the independent variable, the market the dependent variable, to go back to algebra. I just don't see that dollar rally starting here, as much as that would be number one on my top 100 wish list. Just my two cents. I hope the areas shown hold, and they crush this pig into dust (or even just down to a new low for the move). I just don't see it, until, as M says, a market shock event triggers it. We'll see.

The setup failed after the markets went up exactly as Jim predicted. And it failed badly as usually great setups do ...

We all need to trade based on what's on charts, but it takes a lot to convince me to take shorts these days. It's been a one-way street for more than six months. Eventually that will end, but I need to see plenty evidence first.

Very interestingly we have quite amazing similarity between the medium term picture of Warsaw futures and ES:



Same drop used to anchor the set, same way of anchoring, second ABCD in a row finished at exactly the same line...