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JA
jarek
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Posts: 3,474
Since not everybody here might be interested in such "exotic" market as Warsaw Stock Exchange I decided to start a seperate topic on it outside the regular trading discussions.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Here is the chart updated as of yesterday's close:


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It sure reacted nicely of that 4PT but now a downside acceleration would be needed if its W3 from the top indeed. This wouldn't be possible without US markets "contributing" and Jim sees a potential reversal there.
Now let's see which market will take over the control :-)
JA
jarek
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Posts: 3,474
I updated the chart with the new futures series, as the old one is already gone. The Kane 4PT which looked and worked so perfectly well on the old series now looks more like a Flat ABCD.
I exchanged my previous Roofer's The Trade set with a flatter one where the price target was already hit with a first thrust down.
I also added new ML set which represents well recent price action:


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JA
jarek
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Here is the update of my chart for Warsaw Stock Exchange posted in the main thread on Sunday:

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As expected we reached the ML of Roofer's The Trade set (although a day later than I anticipated)
RO
roofer
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Posts: 3,574
thank you for posting.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Major Polish indexes finished the day in a very important spot, both forming almost ideal trend continuation ABCDs:

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Failure to rise above today's highs should mean a drop to new lows of the move from January's high. Such potential new lows wouldn't be possible without major world indexes contributing to the downside.
On the other hand a break of such clear ABCDs will show the strength of the current bounce.
JA
jarek
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Both setups showed above failed, but the bounce didn't turn out to be strong either. In fact it is much weaker than those observed in other major markets and retraced so far only 38.2% of the previous drop:

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It is possible that our futures have just completed DB Kane ABCD so it's again a major watch area:

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JI
jimkane
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Your second chart there is a good example of 'trendline creep'. Not a great example, but a good one. This would tend to break to the upside. You have trendline creep when a line that should turn price action is instead 'creeped' along. Let's see how this one resolves.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Originally posted by jimkane

...This would tend to break to the upside...


Indeed it broke to the upside with small opening gap, however quickly came back to the line. It remains to be seen whether it was a retest of the line from above or start of something more serious to the downside:

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JA
jarek
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Posts: 3,474
Our indexes are still relatively weak and remain under 38.2% retracement of Jan-Feb drop. Friday's session ended in very interesting spot - right at potential point number 4 of Kane 4PT:

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If the setup fails we may witness strong break to the upside. On the other hand, if it holds then a strong move to the downside should ensue.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
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As expected failure of the 4PT above resulted in a very strong move up. Today WIG reached a very interesting spot: 1.000 ABCD right at a line and .618 of Jan-Feb drop:

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JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Very interestingly we have quite amazing similarity between the medium term picture of Warsaw futures and ES:

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Same drop used to anchor the set, same way of anchoring, second ABCD in a row finished at exactly the same line...