After another great Jim's monthly commentary there is no much left to show here. Maybe I'll just add two other major indexes, which like everything else shown by Jim sit currently in make or brake areas:





In my opinion the upcoming move in either direction will be kind of "everything the same" violent and sustained move. The reason for this will be fear driving the market both up and down.

The one driving everything up will be the fear of upcoming inflation. We should all realize that the only way out of this overwhelming debt the world is currently in is to make this debt worthless. Politicians of this world are not able either to save or to raise taxes to a level necessary to service the existing debt. So they will look for ways to inflate us out of this mess and will find them sooner or later. And they don't care at all about the price we all will have to pay for this.

The fear driving everything down will be the one of the coming correction which is overdue by any measure, of the economy not recovering and maybe poised for another leg down and of contracting overall credit despite of all Fed's initial efforts.

So we have two major forces pointing in opposite directions. Once one of them prevails it should cause a massive move in its direction. But since the countertrend force will also be based on fear then we should also expect sharp countertrend moves.

So fasten your seat belts, since after this relative calm of the last few weeks, we are in for a wild ride in 2010.

Hi Jarek, hi guys,

thanks for opening the first weekly trading thread in the new year. Hope you all enjoyed your holidays and got the chance to refresh yourself for an new interesting trading year.

As Jarek mentioned above, dont miss Jims latest monthly update and have a good start. Trade well!

Yes thanks Jarek, and thanks for that great commentary Jim.
and as Macro T said I hope you all had a good holiday.

And a good start of the new year?





Mats

This is what was really developing instead of my potential Wave 1 and 2 shown on Friday:



We are back at ML of that adjusted set and very close to an important spike line. If the rise would stop here we could have a potential DT ABCD forming where this big ABCD would be the AB leg.
Jim - do you allow an ABCD in AB leg of DT ABCD?

jarek, yeah you could have an ABCD in the AB leg of a DT ABCD, but it sure isn't preferable. It's isn't a dealbreaker for me like an ABCD in the CD leg of a zigzag, but it isn't an ideal situation.

So, everyone, how come the least posted scenario in here of all possibilities is that this goes up, up, and away?

So, five hours under a three point range. Pretty exciting stuff. The only thing this day had going for it was the near perfect 4PT on the 1-min chart right before the open to get in on the big up move. Couldn't ask for more than that.

So, let's see, a big run in GLOBEX overnight (up or down, but I think up is much, much more likely) and a gap and flat tomorrow? Or what? Anything, as long as trading during the RTH is as tough as possible. That's their plan.

Conventional wisdom says flat, narrow range trading for a few days after a big pop like this, but I think they have new money to work this week, and they will be gunning it up. I think they'll have new money to work 'indefinitely'. The commodities we have been watching are starting to break to the upside, and I suspect we are on the verge of another big bubble pop to the upside, with the subsequent crushing of the middle class (and worlwide food and energy riots that go with that).

Crude is well back into the 80's, and looks ready to explode. Copper is saying goodbye to that key line. Platinum is at a new high today for the entire 'bull'. Unleaded, which is what we pay at the pump in real dollars out of our wallets, is at the range top, and looks ready for a big breakout. Sugar is just nuts. I think we are on the verge of a big increase in prices. Goldman Sucks must be getting ready to implement the next milking of us cows. It's going to be a good year. I think we hit S&P 1400 this year.

I know that I should not be that biased but I simply don't see this going up for much longer. I think this whole rise is just a preparation for a big leg down. But first they need to decimate bears so only few will be able to share with them the profits on the way down...

re jim's question... i was home for day... saw trade.. traded line to line.. exited... went on about my life....it WAS the correct trade FOR THAT DAY....

It was an incredible line to line, that's for sure. More than one set, too.

So we reached the upside target pretty exactly. The question is what next:

Yes interesting spot now could be seen as exp on the 15min with a wave 1 and now this zig zag but only 0.786 app cd-leg but app 1 in the former leg down.


Mats

Yes, roofer, your charts have been awesome, and I think very helpful to the crew.