After another great Jim's monthly commentary there is no much left to show here. Maybe I'll just add two other major indexes, which like everything else shown by Jim sit currently in make or brake areas:
In my opinion the upcoming move in either direction will be kind of "everything the same" violent and sustained move. The reason for this will be fear driving the market both up and down.
The one driving everything up will be the fear of upcoming inflation. We should all realize that the only way out of this overwhelming debt the world is currently in is to make this debt worthless. Politicians of this world are not able either to save or to raise taxes to a level necessary to service the existing debt. So they will look for ways to inflate us out of this mess and will find them sooner or later. And they don't care at all about the price we all will have to pay for this.
The fear driving everything down will be the one of the coming correction which is overdue by any measure, of the economy not recovering and maybe poised for another leg down and of contracting overall credit despite of all Fed's initial efforts.
So we have two major forces pointing in opposite directions. Once one of them prevails it should cause a massive move in its direction. But since the countertrend force will also be based on fear then we should also expect sharp countertrend moves.
So fasten your seat belts, since after this relative calm of the last few weeks, we are in for a wild ride in 2010.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
You guys are so bad. Not one single post today, again...
Okay, another new 'bull market' high in the GLOBEX, and it's made back almost all of the drop on the nonfarm payrolls. If it can keep this grind up, and not sell off (after all, it's a Friday, so it should close strong, and we all know that almost every Sunday futures open up and run a bit), it may set yet another new high today.
Here's something to think long and hard about. Really long, and really hard. The jobs report, most expected growth. Instead it followed yesterday's report, and we are still bleeding. The Fed's Lacker I think it was basically said expect low rates for some time to come (yesterday I heard one estimate that said we'd be at 4% by year end), and the ecomony to be in rough shape for awhile.
So, oil hits another record for the run up, unleaded has broken out, copper, although pulling back slightly, is rocketing, platinum another new high for the 'bull', orange juice is exploding, sugar is just nuts, and so on. I know the last two supposedly have 'supply reasons', but this is the response to the economy is going to be super-weak for a lot longer? Wasn't the price of say oil pricing in a monster recovery? The stock market?
Now they say straight out there will be no recovery, and oil sets another record for the 'bull', as does most of the stock market (look at the Russell or the MidCaps)? The S&P, on finding out the much vaunted recovery isn't happening sells off eight whole points, and then makes it right back. Sounds like a commodity bubble, with the resultant inflation, is a foregone conclusion, since it is unresponsive to supply and demand reality. Just something to give lots of consideration to.
Okay, another new 'bull market' high in the GLOBEX, and it's made back almost all of the drop on the nonfarm payrolls. If it can keep this grind up, and not sell off (after all, it's a Friday, so it should close strong, and we all know that almost every Sunday futures open up and run a bit), it may set yet another new high today.
Here's something to think long and hard about. Really long, and really hard. The jobs report, most expected growth. Instead it followed yesterday's report, and we are still bleeding. The Fed's Lacker I think it was basically said expect low rates for some time to come (yesterday I heard one estimate that said we'd be at 4% by year end), and the ecomony to be in rough shape for awhile.
So, oil hits another record for the run up, unleaded has broken out, copper, although pulling back slightly, is rocketing, platinum another new high for the 'bull', orange juice is exploding, sugar is just nuts, and so on. I know the last two supposedly have 'supply reasons', but this is the response to the economy is going to be super-weak for a lot longer? Wasn't the price of say oil pricing in a monster recovery? The stock market?
Now they say straight out there will be no recovery, and oil sets another record for the 'bull', as does most of the stock market (look at the Russell or the MidCaps)? The S&P, on finding out the much vaunted recovery isn't happening sells off eight whole points, and then makes it right back. Sounds like a commodity bubble, with the resultant inflation, is a foregone conclusion, since it is unresponsive to supply and demand reality. Just something to give lots of consideration to.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, 3.75 point range for almost five hours. I guess I see why there are no posts. At least crude and gold have traded nicely so far today. There are only two posts from one person that I could find in the entire public MyPivots forum so far today! Lots of action in the trading community in this new year...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Just waiting for that stop run, pop into Friday close here that I expect any second...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Thar she blows! And yet another new high for the 'bull market' goes into the record books. Not making any claims, but 'This is too easy'.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Oh, yeah, it's moving now. 1140 falls like it wasn't there. We are now in an area that may slow it down, from just under 1141 to 43.25ish. But it sure looks like they want to blast it up into the close. Then it can do a nice gap up and run on Sunday night.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
The first part of this area, at 40.75, stopped this dead. But it has time, so I'm watching to see if it can catch its breath and push more, or if that's it. Regardless, it was a spectacular finish, just as bullish as I have been saying all week. Followed my script to the letter, it seems.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, folks, a strong close at the HOD for another new 'bull market' high. Nice weekly up bar to start the year. You know what they say, as the first week of Jan goes, so goes the month, and as the month goes, so goes the year.
S&P, INDU, Russell, MidCaps, Naz, trannies, and many more all set new highs for the entire 'bull' today. And those calls swelled nicely.
Have a great weekend. Get rested up for some serious action next week.
S&P, INDU, Russell, MidCaps, Naz, trannies, and many more all set new highs for the entire 'bull' today. And those calls swelled nicely.
Have a great weekend. Get rested up for some serious action next week.

