Hello everybody. I've just returned from my vacations and I wonder what happened to this forum while I was away... I haven't done any analysis yet but I'll start the topic anyway since it looks like nobody else is willing to do it.

Jim - thank you for such detailed clarification.

The market has clear problem with overcoming the 1100 resistance. In looking for possible lines supporting this area I came up with the following sets:

There's the clear, decisive break above 1100, as expected. Now we see if it was just a big stop run, or not.

And there's the follow through confirming it wasn't a stop run.

Im liking the .786ret @1125 and .886ret@1135 those are next main area to watch. 1100 is bust to me, The Bullish ramp is quite persistent so I won't fight it therefore I am riding the long setups until then. But note the Diverging action in the FX markets with EURusd testing near fresh lows, but it's bouncing a bit now, maybe in sympathy with the S&P trying to swim back up. I don't see a frenzy yet but a slow and steady grinding accumulation wich would not alert the momentum crowd too much.And as soon as they try to catchup to it, it'll be too late and will get them in at vulnerable location and that's when the early hands unload to the chasing crowd.

Sure looks ready to roll any second now, short-term. This will be an important clue, whether it does or not.

I just can't see the bear side at all in here, myself. Look at the $RUT and the $MID. Now, that's strong. They are but a few days from new highs for the 'bull'. Until some bad news comes out, I don't see any reason why they aren't going 'risk on'. Sure, it may have pullbacks on the way up, but I'm still entirely long-side bias until the price action says otherwise, as per the discussions from before that nearly tore the forum apart. And yes, I can still trade short side intraday with proper setups with a long bias.

well, she is giving back all of today's gains in the after-hours session. And Eur sliding down to new fresh lows...sweet

Yeah, this may be the sea change, the Fed raised the discount rate between meetings. They did telegraph it, but it surely was not expected so fast, or between meetings. How the market handles this will be a big clue. To date, the standard response is to run it right back up. If they don't do this, that's a clue.

Notice gold. They dropped it hard on the IMF announcement of gold sales, yet those were known to the market. All they did was confirm the final leg of the sales they've been doing and had already disclosed. The result? Gold went right back up as fast as they dropped it. This news about the discount rate was already known to the market. So, if there isn't a sentiment change, this should run right back up in a similar fashion. If it doesn't, things could be changing. That Euro may finally be ready to get hammered. 'Risk on, risk off' may be ending (see Jim's thought's for an article on this).

One of my students knows a guy who has some fantastic timing factors and other analysis, and he has today as a major 'W2' top, from a timing standpoint. And right as this closes on the HOD this rate increase comes out and they drop it. What happens here is critical. I'm forced to stay in the 'it will have to prove it to me' camp, as per my methodology, but we surely are in dangerous territory for the bulls. We couldn't ask for more in my opinion. This thing has the possibility to sell hard if anything happens to it in here, any news, anything.

So far no sea change, just business as usual.

Yes...as the Elliot community are looking for another relabeling act.

Jim,

I really appreciate your posts and I think they are very useful. I like to read them & try to things out.

Al Kamego