Not much to add to what was already told here about the importance of the current area. One more think I noticed is that the recent high in $SPX was exactly on the upper ML of an important Schiff set based on Feb-Apr and Apr-Jul swings:





Friday's morning high could have been just a test of this line.
From how it all sets up we may assume that coming move in either direction should be strong and sustainable.

There's the new HOD, but by 2 ticks. No sustain. We'll see. Maybe +24.50 from the low is all it has for one day. I just can't imagine it not shooting for the new high for the entire move today...

Hey, I just heard a great new expression to go with 'Extend and pretend'. How about 'Ignore and soar'.

Jim - would you tolerate a 3D where a pullback between points 2 and 3 is so much deeper than between points 1 and 2?

Well, I've been working on that as a new pattern. I've noticed it happens most often with an EXP ABCD as a 'W4', and then done, forming a 3D that meets the criteria you mention, with a nice SL. I'm thinking it really isn't a 3D, though, instead a different pattern that has three pushes to it and a nice SL. That's my thinking as of today.

There's a classic example, jarek, in the ES on a 1-min chart right now.

Keep in mind, if it isn't into a PTA there is little to no edge at all of a reversal from it.

Seems like they like this TD with the pattern I mentioned above. But it has to sustain here and get up and over, or they'll just range trade it some more. Still looking for that one more push today at least to new highs for the move...

Originally posted by jimkane

... Still looking for that one more push today at least to new highs for the move...

Would you treat the lack of new high for the move today as a sign of weakness?

Pretty interesting. It 'sees' the area I thought could be trouble, as mentioned above, and drops like a rock. But in doing so, it forms a near perfect ABCD, which then turns the bigger structure into an EXP ABCD (with this ABCD in the CD leg), which it rockets off of, making the quick drop back in a flash, as it is wont to do lately. But, will it now sustain up and over, or will it ramble about here in the range, playing endless games as it has been for the last essentially four hours?

Given how close we are to the bell, I'd say it either stays in the range, or stays in until cash close and they play that last leg, burst up and over after-cash that they like so much. Looks like a nice coil to explode up from tomorrow, but I still will give it a 1% (that's way over-generous) chance it may follow that cool pattern jarek found and respect this critical area. Up, up, and away, ignore and soar.

My best answer for that is 'normally'. Normally I would say this is very weak, taking so long at a key area, and not taking it right out. But, in this manipulation, controlled market, even though I feel the methodology applies essentially the same today, there are other technical analysis things that I think are a lot different. Nowadays, this sideways, do nothing clustering that happens many times in key areas does not behave the way it usually would, historically.

It looks ready to do what experience would have it do, then they snap it the other way hard and do what isn't expected. Kind of like how, since Mar '09, trendline creep in the ES does the exact opposite of what it had always done in my experience. So, yes, in the past I'd say it's almost a lock that this area will hold and a big bear leg is coming. Nowadays, I think any weakness is a trap. You can't fight $100 trillion, or maybe a full quadrillion, dollars in money dumped straight into the stock market...

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

... Still looking for that one more push today at least to new highs for the move...

Would you treat the lack of new high for the move today as a sign of weakness?

The ABCD does the same thing the last pop did, roll right at the first spot there, and down to a new low, and sharply. As Tony has shown, you can find lots of multiple pattern combinations and morphs, and so now we can see another one here. And another one, and so on. And they either will or won't gun it up to new highs. It's just endless game playing. You have to find the setups, picks the spots, follow the 'Trading Plan', and let them do what they do. Hopefully someday sense will prevail, but I don't think that will be until this system entirely collapses and they rebuild a new one, decades from now. So, I don't focus on 'sense', I focus on setups.

Okay, what a place to close it, once again right on my area. How often do they do that? I still think the odds favor the bulls, but it sure would be nice for these technicals to play out and the big areas to send this way down. I can dream, can't I? I may take tommorrow off from the forum, I need a break, since as you can see, I tend to post a lot. If so, I'll be back as soon as I feel 'rested'. I may just watch you guys, but when I do one of two things usually happens: no one posts and there is nothing to watch, or, I just get sucked in and post anyway.

I may make a few comments today, for example, if/when this blows out my area to the upside in after-cash or in GLOBEX...