This coil will get unwound after Tuesday's meeting. The question is which way?

Originally posted by jimkane

... I know they want that new high real, real bad...

But they still respect bearish setups:

Looks to me like a classic test and retest of that downsloping \\:

Look at that after-cash spike!!! These guys never quit, and never change.

Get ready for the new high for the entire move, on election day, in the after-cash.

93.00 hit again. Try number 5...

And that's a 'bingo'.

Market hits the new high for the entire move on election day. I am tooting my own horn here, which I rarely do, since I think my read of a rise from August all the way until election day, and it unfolding just about dead on, was one of my best reads ever, in the face of much opposition. Nailed it. I just nailed it.

This whole after-cash rise was just to 3D at a spike line. But who cares about bearish setups these days?

That's the thing. Why fight $8,000,000 trillion in QE? I mean, you can buy a lot of ES contracts with multi-quintillion dollars...

Next stop, ES 10,000, and if it gets there, I say the chances are well over 99.9999999999% that less goods and services will be bought with equal shares at that level than right now. So, before you cheer that your 401K will be perhaps 10X what it is now, understand you will buy less with it, and any cash you held will be essentially worthless. What a good deal, huh? But, the banks will be able to 'take care' of all that bad paper in the new dollars, so it was worth it. I don't mind that what I worked my entire lifetime for went to the banks, it was for a good cause.

ES hits 96.50. Cool. I'm really, really wondering, just thinking out loud, about something. I don't give it high odds, but I'm pondering scenarios. What if old Bern-Quacke announces not $500 billion (for six months, the most discussed number), not $1 trillion, but something big, true shock and awe, and goes with more, even up to Goldman Suchs' $4 trillion? As I said, I am confident they will eventually get to $10 trillion. It would hit the dollar hard right away, possibly even collapse it, but maybe they want that. If so, I can see the ES rising +100 tomorrow.

I want to go on record saying I see a possibility, albeit a small one, that we see +100 on the ES tomorrow if they do a shock and awe. I think they will be more moderate, but I suspect at least a trillion announced, with the caveat that more is on deck as needed. I think the dollar would break to a new low on that, and start some vicious selling.

The one factor in the ES +100 scenario is that the NYSE short interest is at near record levels, and if some short-covering was kicked off it could feed on itself, aided by huge primary dealer buying of futures in anticipation of having a few extra trillion to play with. We'll see. I'm still hoping for a sell the news event, but that +100 just keeps haunting me...

And the bulls win once again. They will win until the total collapse of the known financial system, in my opinion. Look at commodities. How huge increases in food, pump gas, building materials, etc. will help this recovery I just can't fathom. I think crude will take out the $147 high soon. I use the term 'soon' here in a relative way. Go back to the trend into $147, put that slope on it from here, and estimate the time. I think it will happen faster, but my conservative estimate is about that. But, this time $147 won't slow it down, in my opinion. Bern-quacke is getting exactly what he wants. Heads we lose, tails we die...