ES short term trading 1-12-11

On my last weekend preview, i tried to point out the vulnerability of the market to a significant decline , but pointed out that sentiment, and seasonality pointed to a possible peak at higher prices and mid to late this month. I didnt post a preview this weekend because for me, nothing has changed. We appear to be getting closer in time and price to the expected end result. I,for one will be watching the time near the 17th with particular interest. For todays trading ,i will be watching the 1280.50, 1284.25 levels for possible shorts. Remember Portugals bond sale goes off around 10:30am , i believe. Fwiw, 1257.75 was my line in the sand, believe it or not ,and we've bounced off it twice this week and held it! I remain bullish untill price action tells me not too! The levels i showed on the weekend preview, remain areas of expectation for me. Here is my updated calendar...
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Click image for original size
I see important area to the long side. It has too much confluence.


This is a half gap, 50% Gap of O/N Full Swing, R1 @ 1274.50, HOV 1275. Wow so many to get a long here. Lets see the market has the last word.

Trading @ 1277.50 , 9:39 EST
I may show it later, but, basically i have two short term numbers to look at nearby.. 1280.50-75 and 1281.50.. That makes it kind of tough to decide on a possible short entry. By the way ,Johnpr, nice call! We hit 1276.00, and i too was looking at just a little lower to initiate a buy! .. still watching..
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Nice overshoot! Remember the first objective from the weekend preview was still a little higher at 1283, but i took a small short at 1281.25...heres hoping!...

I see more confidence on the R3 @ 1284.25. Since there is to much longs playing out and little or no shorter lets wait until longs take out their profits and the shorters starts pulling the market down. I believe we can take out 7 handles out from R3.
Yeah, john.. the bigger 30 min chart i posted at 5 this morning shows the 1284.25 number
And theres the first objective from the weekend preview, posted 1-11-11!..Lol, i imagine the bullish action so far this month has been driving the bulls nuts! 1283.50stops me out, but thankfully only one es....
Getting Long @ 1281.00 because the HOV stop loss is 7 handles or ticks
yeah, i'll likely pitch this short at be so i can also get on the right side of this market... looking for 1280.50to 1281.00 also
Originally posted by BruceM

Are we missing a chart here ? Seems like something is lacking her eLorn!!
Originally posted by Lorn

Here is what must change for shorts to work.....TICK!

No chart missing. But just for you here it is...

TICK shows an early morning low of -514 before the market rallies. The trend line from that low acted as a floor for equities and TICK never tested that again until close to 1:00pm.

You can see most of the day TICK spent its time above the zero line. This is equity buying and I'll make the case that the equity futures market follows the equity market, not the other way around.

A few sharp drops nearly touching -800 TICK between 2:00-2:30 but interestingly no 1-min close below that early trend line and prices found support as TICK rose back above the zero line and pretty much stayed above it into the close.

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