ES short term trading 2/22/11

From the weekend preview:

Besides the fact that sentiment is flat to negative this week, sentimentrader reports that the day after Presidents day (Tues) has been positive only 36% of the time. They also note that the only 3 times the s&p cash had a close higher than the open (11 days in a row) ..."That's an incredible streak that has been seen only 3 other times in the contract's nearly 30-year history.



The others were 1/8/92, 8/30/93 and 9/14/95. Interestingly, each time the futures topped out during the next few days, and lost around 3% maximum during the next three weeks."... So again this week , there are good sentiment and historical reasons to be cautious here.Add to that the fact that the last couple days of the month have been bearish ,at least for the last 7 months or so, and Stock traders almanac reports the Dow has been down the last 9 OF THE LAST 12 times the week after Feb expiration. Of course ,so far, this market has defied most historical considerations. Remember Feb was usually a lousy month! I do note however, that recently the small cap leaders, are beginning to lag! (sp up 1% last week, nas up .9%) . I place a lot of importance on this! So, in summary, a little pullback can come at anytime now ,but a decent one is probably , a ways off yet!

stop raised to 1312.50... this last new low at 1312.75 one min proj are 1.618=1316.75 and 2.618=1319.25 ...virtually identical to the last ones...

A look at historically the action around Mondays holiday....This would only be the 2nd time the S&P futes hit a 52-wk high then gapped below the low of prior 3 days. Other was 11/27/09.$$ ...

well, if we're going to see 1319 ,i wish it would hurry up as i suspect we might close near the lows today!

Originally posted by koolblue

well, if were going to see 1319 ,i wish it would hurry up as i suspect we might close near the lows today!

mini peak possible in ten min! (i hope)

well,well, we finally broke above that dam red avg on the 5 min chart... now do they stop it at 1316.75-1317, or take it up to 1319 and change?

expecting arpound 1319.50 or so ,but as usual, i'll exit early probably around 1318

i might be early here but at this point i think it prudent to raise my stop to breakeven at 1314.50 (note the lower band) That way this is now a risk free trade, and frankly ,these countertrend fades tend to fray my nerves!

Originally posted by koolblue

wow!, I told Justin Bieber not to cut his hair!!!

Cmon BOYZ!!! to heck with the BEEB.. PUSH!!!!

well too late in the day for me!.. one min proj is 1311.00, hourly is 1310.75.. Good luck all! c ya!