ES closed strong and looks good for a strong start of the week:



However I'll be watching closely bearish ABCDs on the way up since long term questions remained unanswered yet:

is it the low in a higher time frame? I've seen this before....

Originally posted by tx_ches

Seems to be a question here that didn't really get answered.

weird, but still....

'Lean on the trend until it breaks...' has been a slogan of mine since shortly after I discovered I wanted to be a trend trader.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jarek

Unlike Gold in Silver the previous area held and the potential turn was supported by .886 and potential H&S...

And yet Silver found its way to another new high. This must be really frustrating for those on the short side. I've read recently that a best trading approach is to assume that a trend would last ... forever. Such approach would definitely help a lot of people to save a lot of money in this elongated commodities run.

I love this bearish ABCD we just had, but the action off it is screaming 'up'. It's too bad, but as soon as I started 'rooting' for more downside, as mentioned yesterday, I sealed the fate of this market, and that fate was 'up'. I think it wants the 17 area next. I'm still watching the strong potential 'retest' of this ABCD area, but believe me, it doesn't need a 'retest' this strong and extensive. Sometimes it happens, but in my experience this action means the area is most likely going to get blown out (give way). We'll see.

Also note, the pullback was an ABCD and the 'retest' was impulsive. That's the opposite of what it 'should' be. Red alert.

Okay, the ES just 'broke out', and now we can see if this is a last move into the 1.000 ABCD area, or the next leg on the way up. Just like Japan, I think the market wants to prove that downgrade isn't going to stop the party, and it can show that by getting up over the initial point ASAFP. That started at 1310 area. Getting to 17 crushes the concept that that downgrade does anything to the 'bulls#%&' market, and it also puts it over the 1315-16 key previous area's slightly downsloping price flow. The previous high was 19.25, so it gets really interesting once up there. See ya all at 17. In the meantime, I'll still 'root' that this move finished it off...

And I'll assume that the trend down that started at early April high will last ... at least little longer

danger zone

They want to take that out so badly they can taste it. And they are creeping up to break it out. Can they do it? It would be a shocker to me if they got denied the way this is coiling up... I can hear them chanting 'C'mon 17, C'mon 17'.

Originally posted by jarek

And I'll assume that the trend down that started at early April high will last ... at least little longer

Click image for original size

What a battle at this 1.000 ABCD! If this grinds up until close or into GLOBEX, the slightly downsloping lines may have the area around 1316. So, from 1316 to 17.25 is the center, the 'heart' of the next seriously key area. But, you never know, as I have pointed out at times in the past, sometimes they make something look very strong as they set up a big dump. Gets the last of the suckers. All I can do is wait and manage accordingly...

Watch what CL is doing in here. This is very key, and very interesting.

I think it may head for the lower //, not even the ML. I've been thinking 35 since forever. Understand, though, this is really just an index against the Euro, which is by far the heaviest component. If the DX was going up, and the dollar going up against all currencies, the buying power of the dollar could still be going down, even rapidly.

All I care about is the buying power of the dollar, and if you look at gold, silver, oil, foodstuffs, cotton, etc., you can see what is happening to my buying power. This is true in all currencies, even the powerhouse Aussie. It's just losing buying power a little slower as it rises with respect to the dollar. All fiats are on their way out. Do they go together, or do they fall one by one in big explosions...