YMM1, (3, -1), profitable strategy, 1.618% of Stretch
Hi,
Basis YMM1 (June e-mini $5 Dow futures): Trading from the 18 April settlement, 12140, and fading the first intra-day counter trend price move by 1.618% of the Stretch calculation (30 x 1.618 = 48).
12140 - 48 = 12092 (12090 = 19 April low)
12092 + 48 + 48 + 48 = 12236. (12241 = 19 April high)
... alternatively, trading the (3, -1) formula basis today's Stretch calculation, 30:
12140 - 30 = 12110 (12090 = low 19 April)
12110 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 12200 (12241 = high 19 April high).
Again, the (3, -1) formula basis the Stretch calculation, and in this situation, 1.618% of the Stretch calculation has proven profitable.
Basis YMM1 (June e-mini $5 Dow futures): Trading from the 18 April settlement, 12140, and fading the first intra-day counter trend price move by 1.618% of the Stretch calculation (30 x 1.618 = 48).
12140 - 48 = 12092 (12090 = 19 April low)
12092 + 48 + 48 + 48 = 12236. (12241 = 19 April high)
... alternatively, trading the (3, -1) formula basis today's Stretch calculation, 30:
12140 - 30 = 12110 (12090 = low 19 April)
12110 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 12200 (12241 = high 19 April high).
Again, the (3, -1) formula basis the Stretch calculation, and in this situation, 1.618% of the Stretch calculation has proven profitable.
Hunter, I'm new so be kind....
I trade YM..... and although I understand your math...I don't understand how you know when the 1st counter trend move is done?..(timescale?)...YM went lower after that first move......of 30....it went down another 20 or so
You know the YM trades pretty good off the pivots.......70 day points off the 159 pivot.
Monday's a little weird cuz you have to squeeze in sunday.....but the best YM trade (W/O the Sunday night ambush) was yesterdays S3 pivot 12036.......You have to ajdust the numbers to accomodate for Sunday, but its usually pretty good.
I only take momentum trades as they rise up through the Pivots.
I trade YM..... and although I understand your math...I don't understand how you know when the 1st counter trend move is done?..(timescale?)...YM went lower after that first move......of 30....it went down another 20 or so
You know the YM trades pretty good off the pivots.......70 day points off the 159 pivot.
Monday's a little weird cuz you have to squeeze in sunday.....but the best YM trade (W/O the Sunday night ambush) was yesterdays S3 pivot 12036.......You have to ajdust the numbers to accomodate for Sunday, but its usually pretty good.
I only take momentum trades as they rise up through the Pivots.
Grednfer,
Since Hunter doesn't explain this strategy, i will step in for him. its actually quite easy and successful. here it goes:
the beauty of this system and style is it is all after the fact. you take the stretch, then times it by 1,2, or 3 or 1.618 or 2.618 add or subtract it from the close, then wait for the day to finish to find where your entries and exits will be along with profit. you can see which one to fade and where the exact target will be. with all those numbers, its bound to come within +/-20 handles of it.
hope you caught the sarcasm!
sorry hunter, as long as we keep asking questions and you dont respond, the less credible you seem and the more we would not like to see these types of posts. don't know if your just putting your time in before you drop a $$ subscription service on us all?? dont know if i speak for the rest here, everyone please add your two cents if you have the time or care to chime to see if im out of line?!
Since Hunter doesn't explain this strategy, i will step in for him. its actually quite easy and successful. here it goes:
the beauty of this system and style is it is all after the fact. you take the stretch, then times it by 1,2, or 3 or 1.618 or 2.618 add or subtract it from the close, then wait for the day to finish to find where your entries and exits will be along with profit. you can see which one to fade and where the exact target will be. with all those numbers, its bound to come within +/-20 handles of it.
hope you caught the sarcasm!
sorry hunter, as long as we keep asking questions and you dont respond, the less credible you seem and the more we would not like to see these types of posts. don't know if your just putting your time in before you drop a $$ subscription service on us all?? dont know if i speak for the rest here, everyone please add your two cents if you have the time or care to chime to see if im out of line?!
I understand, but it is inconsistent.....it didn't work last thurs, sunday and today.......and when trading futures I like 24 hour strategies(as opposed to intraday).....because they trade 24 hours/day.
If you trade with a computer (I mean automated) you can easily trade the pivots and the Sls and the Rls.........short below, long above.......very consistent always makes money always on the right side of the trade.
I haven't found anything that beats it (but Im open)....works with everything.....NQ, ES, any future will do. You just need liquidity for tight BA spreads.....keeps the tax down if it chops on your number.
If you trade with a computer (I mean automated) you can easily trade the pivots and the Sls and the Rls.........short below, long above.......very consistent always makes money always on the right side of the trade.
I haven't found anything that beats it (but Im open)....works with everything.....NQ, ES, any future will do. You just need liquidity for tight BA spreads.....keeps the tax down if it chops on your number.
Hi,
Grednfer, Don't punk me.
These past several weeks, I've seen three replies to my posts, two from you and one from Horse43. I have seen no other replies to my posts. Rallying the troops (... put your two cents in") to assault my integrity, and the profitable trading strategy, makes you look like a bully.
As far as hitting you up for a subscription service: I am not interested in a life of indentured servitude to a blog, or a publication. Money works for me. I don't work for money.
Today is 21 April. The 20 April post had three replies. Two from Greednfer and one from Horse43.
Three of those replies were posted in the last 24 hours. That would be the two of you. Prior to these three posts two other traders, from www.mypivots.com, have contacted me with an interest in my posts.
I am published, and registered my publication on the Bulletin Board where it traded as high as $7.50. My publication delivered 110,000 equity and futures trading reports, six times daily, ten years before anyone knew about e-mail, much less how to go online.
Horse43:
The (3, -1) Strategy fade (counter trend trade entry) is NOT an "after the fact trading technique." Read the 19 April (3, -1) trading strategy below. Yes the e-mini $5 Dow futures tend to trade well off the pivot points which are also found at www.mypivots.com ... DAILY NOTES.
Trading directionally below S1 or above R1 assumes that it is a uni-directional day. Markets tend to retrace over the previous day's trading range, which supports the (3, -1) formula strategy. Getting in after a move to the first support / resistance is often where seasoned traders take their profits, which often creates a set up for an "S&P minute." ("S&P minute" ... moving average crossover or support / resistance breach in a day that ultimately retraces over the previous day's range, as many days do retrace over the previous, ... and then price action reverses... see (3, -1) strategy.)
Regarding 'the fade the first move by the Stretch, or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation, count that same number from that first intra-day counter trend price move and project a price target exit beyond, from that low reversal point OR, from the previous settlement. (Sometimes you'll have to begin your price rotation count from the previous B session's last hour, often the last twenty minutes, price print low or high.)
The (3, -1) is a real time trading tool. (Example: 18 April low to close range was 105 points take 50% of that (10141 - 12036 = 105 x .50 = 12088) and corrolate this level to pullback from the previous settlement by 1.618% of the Stretch (12228-48 = 12228 - 1.618% of the Stretch = 12092, with a 19 April low printing there at 12090 ... declining from the previous settlement everything projected support around 12090. This is the technique you apply to fading the first counter trend move by the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch. However, sometimes you have to apply the previous B session's last price rotation, i.e, 1.618% aiming for a support / resistance area with a tradeable probability of reversing.) and the taking the other side of the first counter trend rotation (you fade that price move) can be either a Stretch move or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation.
Consider entering at 1.618% of the Stretch calculation that corrolates to a Fibonacci of the Stretch, 1.618%, that is measured from the previous session's last half hour (or an hour, sometimes). You'll get that follow through confirmation with a move from unchanged (almost always trade from unchanged) to a Stretch or a 1.618% of the Stretch calculation. Look for those two (or three) confirmations (sometimes corrolating with the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd support / resistance levels). You'll be shopping for sharks teeth, so keep your patience and wait for the moves to mature, and they do manifest earlier in the A session while the day's trading range is expanding.
You don't have to adjust for Sunday's trading, 15:00PDT, because each day begins expanding a trading range from beginning to end.
I trade minute by minute, but enter into a position, early in the A session (while the range for the day is expanding) and hold that position for twenty to fifty plus point (+14% to +37% profits basis $672.50 intra-day margin) profits. However, I use all of the larger time frames for a greater perspective, which I too measure for price projections.
If you are trading for the money, take a serious look at your greed/fear psychopathy. You are asking because you are curious, which is important. Most people trade out of greed, which has a manifestation of a 'fear of loss.'
I intra-day trade e-mini $5 Dow futures... Sunday afternoon, i.e., 15:00PST through 13:15, A session re-opens at 13:30 ... trades for one hour from 13:30PDT and closes for a half an hour at 14:30 before repeating through Friday of that week.
Right,... there are uni-directional days. If it were a perfect world, politicians wouldn't eat their young, and markets would go up on all days except Mondays and Fridays. (For the record, there have been many preiods these past many years when Mondays and Fridays tended to trade in two-way ranges. In those mecurial periods, look for reversals at 1.618% of the Stretch and 2.618% of the Stretch to be more frequent. Nonetheless continue to analyze the (3, -1) formula.)
This should serve to support your the greater trader in you. Do not withhold support from another trader, and always honor the source.
Grednfer, Don't punk me.
These past several weeks, I've seen three replies to my posts, two from you and one from Horse43. I have seen no other replies to my posts. Rallying the troops (... put your two cents in") to assault my integrity, and the profitable trading strategy, makes you look like a bully.
As far as hitting you up for a subscription service: I am not interested in a life of indentured servitude to a blog, or a publication. Money works for me. I don't work for money.
Today is 21 April. The 20 April post had three replies. Two from Greednfer and one from Horse43.
Three of those replies were posted in the last 24 hours. That would be the two of you. Prior to these three posts two other traders, from www.mypivots.com, have contacted me with an interest in my posts.
I am published, and registered my publication on the Bulletin Board where it traded as high as $7.50. My publication delivered 110,000 equity and futures trading reports, six times daily, ten years before anyone knew about e-mail, much less how to go online.
Horse43:
The (3, -1) Strategy fade (counter trend trade entry) is NOT an "after the fact trading technique." Read the 19 April (3, -1) trading strategy below. Yes the e-mini $5 Dow futures tend to trade well off the pivot points which are also found at www.mypivots.com ... DAILY NOTES.
Trading directionally below S1 or above R1 assumes that it is a uni-directional day. Markets tend to retrace over the previous day's trading range, which supports the (3, -1) formula strategy. Getting in after a move to the first support / resistance is often where seasoned traders take their profits, which often creates a set up for an "S&P minute." ("S&P minute" ... moving average crossover or support / resistance breach in a day that ultimately retraces over the previous day's range, as many days do retrace over the previous, ... and then price action reverses... see (3, -1) strategy.)
Regarding 'the fade the first move by the Stretch, or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation, count that same number from that first intra-day counter trend price move and project a price target exit beyond, from that low reversal point OR, from the previous settlement. (Sometimes you'll have to begin your price rotation count from the previous B session's last hour, often the last twenty minutes, price print low or high.)
The (3, -1) is a real time trading tool. (Example: 18 April low to close range was 105 points take 50% of that (10141 - 12036 = 105 x .50 = 12088) and corrolate this level to pullback from the previous settlement by 1.618% of the Stretch (12228-48 = 12228 - 1.618% of the Stretch = 12092, with a 19 April low printing there at 12090 ... declining from the previous settlement everything projected support around 12090. This is the technique you apply to fading the first counter trend move by the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch. However, sometimes you have to apply the previous B session's last price rotation, i.e, 1.618% aiming for a support / resistance area with a tradeable probability of reversing.) and the taking the other side of the first counter trend rotation (you fade that price move) can be either a Stretch move or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation.
Consider entering at 1.618% of the Stretch calculation that corrolates to a Fibonacci of the Stretch, 1.618%, that is measured from the previous session's last half hour (or an hour, sometimes). You'll get that follow through confirmation with a move from unchanged (almost always trade from unchanged) to a Stretch or a 1.618% of the Stretch calculation. Look for those two (or three) confirmations (sometimes corrolating with the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd support / resistance levels). You'll be shopping for sharks teeth, so keep your patience and wait for the moves to mature, and they do manifest earlier in the A session while the day's trading range is expanding.
You don't have to adjust for Sunday's trading, 15:00PDT, because each day begins expanding a trading range from beginning to end.
I trade minute by minute, but enter into a position, early in the A session (while the range for the day is expanding) and hold that position for twenty to fifty plus point (+14% to +37% profits basis $672.50 intra-day margin) profits. However, I use all of the larger time frames for a greater perspective, which I too measure for price projections.
If you are trading for the money, take a serious look at your greed/fear psychopathy. You are asking because you are curious, which is important. Most people trade out of greed, which has a manifestation of a 'fear of loss.'
I intra-day trade e-mini $5 Dow futures... Sunday afternoon, i.e., 15:00PST through 13:15, A session re-opens at 13:30 ... trades for one hour from 13:30PDT and closes for a half an hour at 14:30 before repeating through Friday of that week.
Right,... there are uni-directional days. If it were a perfect world, politicians wouldn't eat their young, and markets would go up on all days except Mondays and Fridays. (For the record, there have been many preiods these past many years when Mondays and Fridays tended to trade in two-way ranges. In those mecurial periods, look for reversals at 1.618% of the Stretch and 2.618% of the Stretch to be more frequent. Nonetheless continue to analyze the (3, -1) formula.)
This should serve to support your the greater trader in you. Do not withhold support from another trader, and always honor the source.
thanks for the further explanation hunter!
so based on your system, you should be able to generate your entries and exits right now based on the close.
so lets say the stretch is the same for tomorrow (31) with a close of 12396.
so you are going to fade the first move of 31 or 50 (1.618), so long 12365/12346 or short 12427/12446, then target 31/62/93 off that? which one do you know to target? where are your stops.
so can you give your entries with targets if hit for tomorrow?
like you said, we are interesting in learning from others, but your posts dont seem to be of much use intraday, no offense intended
so based on your system, you should be able to generate your entries and exits right now based on the close.
so lets say the stretch is the same for tomorrow (31) with a close of 12396.
so you are going to fade the first move of 31 or 50 (1.618), so long 12365/12346 or short 12427/12446, then target 31/62/93 off that? which one do you know to target? where are your stops.
so can you give your entries with targets if hit for tomorrow?
like you said, we are interesting in learning from others, but your posts dont seem to be of much use intraday, no offense intended
Hunter,
My intentions were not to punk on you. I don't even know what that means.
I responded to the post because I like the DOW futures and not many folks do.
And I have seen seen instances where your "algorithm" works....its just inconsistent...nothing personal right?....it is what it is.
But I was curious on what trading you do on the "Unidirectional" days like Monday and Today......espepcially when 70% of the movement is afterhours?
I am not selling anything, I am in search of the "perpetual" algorithm.....so when I see something interesting I ask questions.....and comment on perceived weaknesses.....and sometimes its just my lack of understanding.
You know the YM has moved about 750 points in 3 days.....and its very profitable to be on both sides of that .......
My intentions were not to punk on you. I don't even know what that means.
I responded to the post because I like the DOW futures and not many folks do.
And I have seen seen instances where your "algorithm" works....its just inconsistent...nothing personal right?....it is what it is.
But I was curious on what trading you do on the "Unidirectional" days like Monday and Today......espepcially when 70% of the movement is afterhours?
I am not selling anything, I am in search of the "perpetual" algorithm.....so when I see something interesting I ask questions.....and comment on perceived weaknesses.....and sometimes its just my lack of understanding.
You know the YM has moved about 750 points in 3 days.....and its very profitable to be on both sides of that .......
Thanks guys. I am happy to share the gristle between my ears.
Looking at tonights trading, I'm short YMM1 (June e-mini $5 Dow) at 12242 (20:12PDT). I watched the A session open rally 54 points, and drift slowly lower couple dozen points, before I decided that this rally, 1.618% of the Stretch calculation (31 x 1.618% = 50 points... previous settlement, 12396 + 50 = 12446. As of 15:12PDT the high is 12460. That's the usual slippage beyond 1.618% of the Stretch.) Usually, it's prudent to wait for a 1.618% of the Stretch because 1.618% measurement, basis trading from the previous settlement, will preserve your capital. Consider what a $100 (20 pts) move will do to an intra-day margin, $672.50 (depending on your broker's discretion).
21 April Example:
Stretch = 31
1.618% of the Stretch = 50
2.618% of the Stretch = 81
4.25% of the Stretch = 131, which often approaches the day's range, unless volatility rules the day.
Previous settlement, 12396 + 1.618% = 12446 (high at 15:12PDT is 12460)
After the significant rally these past three days, I feel comfortable selling the June e-mini $5 Dow futures short.
... 12396 + 50 = 12446. Sometimes you measure the rotation lower from the previous settlement, others from the reversal point.
Now measure from the previous settlement:
12396 - 50 = 12346 = Previous settlement - 1.618% = 12346
12396 - 81 = 12315 = Previous settlement - 2.618% = 12315
12396 - 131 = 12265 = Previous settlement - 4.25% = 12265
No, your not multiplying that initial move by 1, 2, or 3. You are calculating that same move (or sometimes the Stretch, not 1.618%) in the opposite direction. I sold short at the first move, 1.618% of the Stretch above the previous settlement, fading that move with the short sale. I'm risking a dozen points, just a few above the currently established high. Use the 1.618% of the Stretch plus a dozen or so more points for your stop. I usually don't flip and reverse unless the daily chart and four hour charts, etc., warrant a rising / declining trend, i.e., overwhelming investor conviction.
Yeah, my posts are made when, and if, I get around to making the posts. Usually not while I'm trading. I'm usually mtn biking, hiking, eating, or deciding how I'm going to cook lapin. (I'm looking for a french recipe for Easter rabbit.)
Because I am looking for an early entry, relatively, in the A session, my positioning isn't too far off the mark. In recent weeks, I've seen a bunch of uni-directional days where the open and the high / low was established early in the A session. Those uni-directional days open at one end of the day's range, and moves through 1.618% by about the Stretch and retraces back to test that breach. If you get this chance to reduce your losses, offset your position.
Looking at tonights trading, I'm short YMM1 (June e-mini $5 Dow) at 12242 (20:12PDT). I watched the A session open rally 54 points, and drift slowly lower couple dozen points, before I decided that this rally, 1.618% of the Stretch calculation (31 x 1.618% = 50 points... previous settlement, 12396 + 50 = 12446. As of 15:12PDT the high is 12460. That's the usual slippage beyond 1.618% of the Stretch.) Usually, it's prudent to wait for a 1.618% of the Stretch because 1.618% measurement, basis trading from the previous settlement, will preserve your capital. Consider what a $100 (20 pts) move will do to an intra-day margin, $672.50 (depending on your broker's discretion).
21 April Example:
Stretch = 31
1.618% of the Stretch = 50
2.618% of the Stretch = 81
4.25% of the Stretch = 131, which often approaches the day's range, unless volatility rules the day.
Previous settlement, 12396 + 1.618% = 12446 (high at 15:12PDT is 12460)
After the significant rally these past three days, I feel comfortable selling the June e-mini $5 Dow futures short.
... 12396 + 50 = 12446. Sometimes you measure the rotation lower from the previous settlement, others from the reversal point.
Now measure from the previous settlement:
12396 - 50 = 12346 = Previous settlement - 1.618% = 12346
12396 - 81 = 12315 = Previous settlement - 2.618% = 12315
12396 - 131 = 12265 = Previous settlement - 4.25% = 12265
No, your not multiplying that initial move by 1, 2, or 3. You are calculating that same move (or sometimes the Stretch, not 1.618%) in the opposite direction. I sold short at the first move, 1.618% of the Stretch above the previous settlement, fading that move with the short sale. I'm risking a dozen points, just a few above the currently established high. Use the 1.618% of the Stretch plus a dozen or so more points for your stop. I usually don't flip and reverse unless the daily chart and four hour charts, etc., warrant a rising / declining trend, i.e., overwhelming investor conviction.
Yeah, my posts are made when, and if, I get around to making the posts. Usually not while I'm trading. I'm usually mtn biking, hiking, eating, or deciding how I'm going to cook lapin. (I'm looking for a french recipe for Easter rabbit.)
Because I am looking for an early entry, relatively, in the A session, my positioning isn't too far off the mark. In recent weeks, I've seen a bunch of uni-directional days where the open and the high / low was established early in the A session. Those uni-directional days open at one end of the day's range, and moves through 1.618% by about the Stretch and retraces back to test that breach. If you get this chance to reduce your losses, offset your position.
Very Cool......
Thanks for more layout.
I've seen those delta numbers pop up as well as 20, 42, 70, and 105, 166, and 266.
YM made a new multi-year high tonight.....very bullish....but I don't trade that.....so its anecdotal.
I'm not short yet, but my machine is set to go short when the momentum drops through 433.....we'll see huh?
I do NQ too......set to short at 73.5....its up 130 in 3 days....what a party!
Keep up the cool posts.......Thx
Thanks for more layout.
I've seen those delta numbers pop up as well as 20, 42, 70, and 105, 166, and 266.
YM made a new multi-year high tonight.....very bullish....but I don't trade that.....so its anecdotal.
I'm not short yet, but my machine is set to go short when the momentum drops through 433.....we'll see huh?
I do NQ too......set to short at 73.5....its up 130 in 3 days....what a party!
Keep up the cool posts.......Thx
H,
Just for fun I set one of the machines to short last night when momentum dropped through close +60. It took the trade at around 5am pst.
It got 62 points (I like 60 points) before mo reversed at yesterdays close and of course is now heading back up. I see that too, that they buy the previous days close....old school stuff I guess.
Shorts are tough on the DOW as LT momemtum is up.....
Just for fun I set one of the machines to short last night when momentum dropped through close +60. It took the trade at around 5am pst.
It got 62 points (I like 60 points) before mo reversed at yesterdays close and of course is now heading back up. I see that too, that they buy the previous days close....old school stuff I guess.
Shorts are tough on the DOW as LT momemtum is up.....
thanks Hunter, I've been reading and will look to apply. I love the ym. It actually moves, unlike the es.
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