I was not aware that ES is trading today despite the Memorial Day. Here is the update of our bearish ABCD:

Not the most timely post I've ever made, but if you look at this in the 'context' of the daily/weekly, if it pans out, it will be pretty good. I just wanted to repost this thought I had at that time, in case it is the correct read. I'm not sure when I posted it, in the heat of intraday trading, that many grasped what I was saying. And if this rolls over in here and sets another new low for the move, I'll step up and say I didn't get that read right at all.


Posted-05/25/2011 : 15:13:10

Originally posted by jimkane

I think that was very likely the low.

Look at the ES go. Wheeeeeeeeeee!

NEM 60 minute.
I don't know what to make of this NEM.
It had lines confluence with fibs confluence. But then did nothing. The next 6 bars on the 60 min are all inside the bar that hit the area.
So maybe it is correcting by going sideways.

I see nothing but up to new highs coming, but I have two key levels I will still be watching. The really prime one is around 46.75-48.50 give or take, and the next is around 60.50-62.25. There is a timing factor for the first area around the end of Tuesday's trading day, but I don't weigh that too heavily, I really care about the level and the trajectory towards it. What I want to see now is does it go straight there, or do they play their game of bring it down later tonight and maybe into the early AM session, and then start the gunning process again, from better prices for them. Which track they take will potentially change the timing factor.

Is it possible that this broke out over the last key area and ABCD, into 'blue sky' territory, and looks ready to smoke off to new highs, and it's all a headfake and trap? It is possible, and I'll be watching the character of the action in here. This would be 'W3', and should be strong and impulsive to the next areas mentioned, with maybe a 'W4' type pullback 'up there' somewhere. Any weakness where it is now would be very suspect. As always, price action rules. Just a comment to make it clear that I am never married to one side or one scenario. I just know when I have a strong bias, and I know how long it takes for me to ditch that if the action tells me so: one millisecond, give or take.

Yep - there were hints already yesterday, that our bearish ABCD is not going to hold:

'All W3s are failed ABCDs' - thank you Jim for that concept

Looks like ES got slightly ahead of itself earlier on:



It's still in no-man's zone

Strange, but this Schiffs upper ML at 1344 looks like concrete ceiling so far:

interesting symmetry at the lines...