This is already 70 points straight down. If this rising TL doesn't stop this, it could go much lower:

Now, one of two scenarios is likely here in my opinion, higher timeframe. That bearish ABCD is going to play out, or it isn't. If it is, this should bounce to a nice 'W2' spot and roll down hard in a 'W3'. Or, and I think this is far, far more likely, that was it off the ABCD, and now this heads up hard, to the much higher areas discussed previously. I think it will tip its hand, as far as probabilities, as it moves up in here.

Understand, too, that there is a tremendous amount of 'bad news' waiting to happen, and if any of it comes out, then likely it will head down and that scenario will play out.

Okay, that's it for me, what a truly fantastic day for trading, in my opinion. It rarely gets better than this, again, in my opinion.

Here's a thought that I wonder if anyone in the 'blogosphere' is going to 'catch'. When the Swiss Central Bank 'intervened' today and took over 1,000 pips off the Swissie in a blink, the big down gold move started almost four minutes beforehand. I think, without any doubt, that the move was leaked to some big players. Someone knew. Look at a 1-min or tick chart of gold and the Swissie. That's too coincidental to me that gold started selling that hard right before the announcement. Yeah, right, no one big knew... As usual, no investigation will be forthcoming, no arrests made, no one prosecuted, no one jailed. Same old, same old.

So, this is just grinding up an upsloping SL here (this can be very dangerous). 71 and change is the next level I have, then 77-78 (note these two levels define a major KZ), and then a really nice spot in the upper 80's. That's the real 'it wants to get there' spot for me. Around 82.50 there are some minor things I'll be watching.

Keep in mind, except for the upper 80's area, these are mostly levels I'll be watching from the perspective of 'management mode', to assess how I feel about staying long-side bias. The upper 80's area, now that's the one where I think it could react more significantly. And if it doesn't, then two things come to mind:

1) It may have some real room to run if that area is cleared, and

2) Cool

Still creeping up that SL (which is also an upper // for a standard set), after eight hours. Very curious. It has now hit the first level. It would be very curious if it kept up this creep until the next level. That would be around 6 AM eastern. I think it wants to break to the upside, and it may do that on the European open, who knows. I just think it would be cool if it did keep up this creep to the next level, because that would likely be the longest creep of this type I've ever seen.

When I see this kind of creep (this is not the usual TL creep I mention, as the line would have to be downsloping in this case for that type), it usually creeps until it hits the area it wants to respect, then falls off the line hard. That's why I suspect this will break up, so that it can invalidate the creep. We'll see. It's very technically interesting for me either way.

So it is written, and so shall it be. Like that was a difficult read. Too funny. 99.9999999999% chance, to me, that it would break to the upside like it just did.

Originally posted by jimkane

...I suspect this will break up...

BTW, there's the second level on that breakout. Now we see if they broke it out to this level to roll it over. Snap trap fake out. That's one scenario. A much, much more likely one to me is it keeps rising and we have one wicked up day tomorrow. I think that is the highest probability scenario by far. Maybe I'm not getting the right read on it at all. All I know is I'm long-side bias, and I'll be that way as long as it keeps rising.

In rereading that last post I am not making it clear the two scenarios are on different timeframes, and need not be mutually exclusive. It could check back in here and be a snap trap on the lower timeframe, while still rising strongly on a timeframe up from there. Hence, both scenarios could play out.

ES is reacting to such a 1.000 bearish ABCD right at one of Jim's levels at .447 to the tick:



Is clear sailing to the Schiff ML over?

I think they want up, big up, real bad. Just a sense I get.