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rat89
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I agree with Jim.....the feel of the market has changed in the last couple of weeks. They could murder it next week, you never know...
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jimkane
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I sure am glad I am 'dead wrong' again. See why I posted that note about the shift in character? If the jobs report is really bad (like it was) they would always gun it way up. Why? More QE coming. Why isn't the market reacting that way? Simple. They are bringing it down, as I said. This will line up with 'bad' reports. Reports have been 'bad' all along, but they would then buy it and manipulate it up, sending the message that the reports are actually 'good'.
Now all reports will be said to be 'bad'. The market will tank. It will tank regardless of reports if the steroids of money printing aren't there, along with the command to buy on the 'bad' reports. Now, if it doesn't sell (it likely wouldn't, because who is there to actually sell?), they can give it a little nudge by starting the selling on the 'bad' report. Once enough reports are called 'bad' in the main stream media (MSM), and the market is down enough so the MSM starts crying 'bear market', QE3 will be announced.
Notice when ChairSatan Bern-Qwacke released those minutes saying no QE anytime soon he also had in there 'unless things deteriorate'. And, lo and behold, they immediately begin deteriorating... He gets his QE3 (well, his buddies do), O'Bummer gets his huge ramp into the election, and everything is as it should be, in this, the best of all possible worlds. That's my two cents. BTW, notice, too, the other 'benefit' to the drop, rates dropped huge. Got to keep that U.S. debt financing cheap.
Now all reports will be said to be 'bad'. The market will tank. It will tank regardless of reports if the steroids of money printing aren't there, along with the command to buy on the 'bad' reports. Now, if it doesn't sell (it likely wouldn't, because who is there to actually sell?), they can give it a little nudge by starting the selling on the 'bad' report. Once enough reports are called 'bad' in the main stream media (MSM), and the market is down enough so the MSM starts crying 'bear market', QE3 will be announced.
Notice when ChairSatan Bern-Qwacke released those minutes saying no QE anytime soon he also had in there 'unless things deteriorate'. And, lo and behold, they immediately begin deteriorating... He gets his QE3 (well, his buddies do), O'Bummer gets his huge ramp into the election, and everything is as it should be, in this, the best of all possible worlds. That's my two cents. BTW, notice, too, the other 'benefit' to the drop, rates dropped huge. Got to keep that U.S. debt financing cheap.
Originally posted by jimkane
Let the run up to the jobs report begin... Same old, same old.
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jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
As an aside, Carl Futia said we are headed right to 1442. We've now dropped to 1372 since he said that. Does that make his call a wrong call? Should he be stepping up and saying he was completely wrong? Or, if it now ramps up to 1442 from here can he stick with his call, and say 'I told you so'? I'm just looking at this from a trading standpoint.
To use his information, when does one get long? Where is the stop? How much heat should one take? Without knowing this, the information isn't too useful to me. I can call for S&P 1,500, and likely, some day, I'll be right. But am I 'right' if the S&P drops to 400 first, and then goes to 1,500? Well, technically I am. But how useful is that for trading?
My point is not to pick on Carl, it's to clarify what information is useful, and what is not. I think people (any people) who make predictions in a trading context should mention stops, entries, and when the prediction is invalidated i.e. they were 'wrong'. Those who make bold predictions owe that to their readers, I think. Be it Carl, or anyone else. Just my opinion.
To use his information, when does one get long? Where is the stop? How much heat should one take? Without knowing this, the information isn't too useful to me. I can call for S&P 1,500, and likely, some day, I'll be right. But am I 'right' if the S&P drops to 400 first, and then goes to 1,500? Well, technically I am. But how useful is that for trading?
My point is not to pick on Carl, it's to clarify what information is useful, and what is not. I think people (any people) who make predictions in a trading context should mention stops, entries, and when the prediction is invalidated i.e. they were 'wrong'. Those who make bold predictions owe that to their readers, I think. Be it Carl, or anyone else. Just my opinion.
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jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Please, everyone, read this post I did:
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/4050/-1/jims-economic-links#99179
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/4050/-1/jims-economic-links#99179