If they want to announce the end of the correction they have a nice spot at .382.

Thanks Al, but the MLs were drawn only after the fact. At first I found it easier to look for lines crossing on the lower area. Anyway, even if I manage to identify what I missed it is another lesson learnt.

Marcin,

That is a positive attitude! Good Luck. I myself am looking at 3Ds and Spike Lines using the ENSIGN "Fibonacci Retracement" tool. I will try to be as positive as you are when I look at the results of my efforts!

Good Trading,

Al Kamego

Interesting turn of events. A Kane TD ABCD expands into a Kane EXP ABCD which changes into a Kane FLAT ABCD SELL, signalling a change in trend.

Al Kamego

they do not want to let it go here.....trapped in a 10¢ range

17.50 here may be it, but if it drops a little more, I'm watching 14 and then 8. Keep in mind, 8 is also a nice-looking Kane Pattern area. Not that we have much chance of seeing it...

Yep, up like a rocket. That was too obvious. 'Too easy', as I like to say. Look at the TL and 12:10 swing point.

Originally posted by albert

Interesting turn of events. A Kane TD ABCD expands into a Kane EXP ABCD which changes into a Kane FLAT ABCD SELL, signalling a change in trend.

Al Kamego

Click image for original size

Wow. Did I say that? To my mind, stating that something signals a "change in trend" seems like a pretty bold claim. I just watched price, and saw that Kane Flat ABCD had very good price "follow thru."
I am not so sure about a change in trend. I am more of a trend follower than a trend predictor. The bigger Kane Flat ABCD completing at 0.618 fibo also had good "followthru," but I do not have a clue where price will go from here. I want to avoid the Predicting business. Jim is the predictor par excellance here. I look for "clues" and try to piece something together.

Al Kamego

Thanks for the compliment there Al, but I want to make something very clear. In my opinion, trading is not about making predictions, and I stay out of the prediction game, too. It's a fine line, but for the sake of better understanding, I want to clarify what I am doing and 'predicting'. This may already be clear, but if not, I'm going to attempt to clarify it.

What I am trying to do, and what I think I'm fairly good at, is 'odds-making'. I'm playing Vegas odds-maker. I once knew a guy who was a dominant force at the local racetrack. I hung around with him a little bit, although I never bet the ponies. What he was good at was figuring the odds of certain horses performing in certain ways, under certain track conditions. He then looked at the odds that were being given, and he found areas where he thought he had an edge. Over time, he would make money if he was better at calculating the odds of various outcomes than what the odds being offered were.

Here's how you can tell that I don't 'predict'. Predictors have a key phrase they use over and over. You hear them say 'The market is going here, then going there.' You never hear me say anything like that (if you do, it's a mistake on my part, so please point it out to me.) What I usually mention are areas I am watching, and I usually add something like 'if it gets there'. I add the italicized if on there because I really have no idea if it will ever go to that area, I just know if it does I may look to act.

Next, I sometimes sense when the odds greatly favor, in my experience, a move to a certain area over all other moves I can conceive of. This is not a prediction that the market will get there, I never say the market is going there, only that of the outcomes I can imagine, this one has technical and other factors greatly favoring that outcome. I not only have 'figured the odds', one particular outcome has a disproportionate chance off happening compared to the rest, based on my experience. But, anything could happen in any one individual case.

Sometimes I see a big move coming, and I mention a 20 or 30 point rush up, for example (sometimes the market has a 'magnet' area that seems to be drawing it there). That's not a prediction, that's a technical observation based on the layout and other factors at that time (like time of day or day of the week, and so on). It may sound like a prediction, but it's not. It's one factor of a 'Trading Plan', which, by itself (as almost all 'predictions' are given by predictors), is of little use to me or anyone. But, as one potential small edge as part of a comprehensive 'Trading Plan' filled with many small edges, it has its place. Always understand that 'context' whenever you (you being anyone) read any of my posts.

I hope this helps clarify the bigger picture of what I am doing when I make such posts that imply where I think the market may be moving to.

Originally posted by albert

...Jim is the predictor par excellance here...

Al Kamego

Here's something key to watch. I don't think it will hold, but let's see. Make sure you scroll the chart to see the left-hand side.





Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

It breaks the line, goes one tick below the previous swing low, and snaps up hard. Hmmm, now that's a surprise, right? Too funny. Same old game, different day. These guys never change... Remember the days when a break down below a key line or level produced a reaction in that direction? Those days are long gone...

Asleep at the switch (keyboard). Actually, asleep on and off, but I was just too hammered to look at the forum anymore.

Originally posted by rat89

You still awake, jim?