If they want to announce the end of the correction they have a nice spot at .382.

Another down through the low by one tick. Let's see if they gun it up again...

Originally posted by jimkane

Thanks for the compliment there Al, but I want to make something very clear. In my opinion, trading is not about making predictions, and I stay out of the prediction game, too. It's a fine line, but for the sake of better understanding, I want to clarify what I am doing and 'predicting'. This may already be clear, but if not, I'm going to attempt to clarify it.

What I am trying to do, and what I think I'm fairly good at, is 'odds-making'. I'm playing Vegas odds-maker. I once knew a guy who was a dominant force at the local racetrack. I hung around with him a little bit, although I never bet the ponies. What he was good at was figuring the odds of certain horses performing in certain ways, under certain track conditions. He then looked at the odds that were being given, and he found areas where he thought he had an edge. Over time, he would make money if he was better at calculating the odds of various outcomes than what the odds being offered were.

Here's how you can tell that I don't 'predict'. Predictors have a key phrase they use over and over. You hear them say 'The market is going here, then going there.' You never hear me say anything like that (if you do, it's a mistake on my part, so please point it out to me.) What I usually mention are areas I am watching, and I usually add something like 'if it gets there'. I add the italicized if on there because I really have no idea if it will ever go to that area, I just know if it does I may look to act.

Next, I sometimes sense when the odds greatly favor, in my experience, a move to a certain area over all other moves I can conceive of. This is not a prediction that the market will get there, I never say the market is going there, only that of the outcomes I can imagine, this one has technical and other factors greatly favoring that outcome. I not only have 'figured the odds', one particular outcome has a disproportionate chance off happening compared to the rest, based on my experience. But, anything could happen in any one individual case.

Sometimes I see a big move coming, and I mention a 20 or 30 point rush up, for example (sometimes the market has a 'magnet' area that seems to be drawing it there). That's not a prediction, that's a technical observation based on the layout and other factors at that time (like time of day or day of the week, and so on). It may sound like a prediction, but it's not. It's one factor of a 'Trading Plan', which, by itself (as almost all 'predictions' are given by predictors), is of little use to me or anyone. But, as one potential small edge as part of a comprehensive 'Trading Plan' filled with many small edges, it has its place. Always understand that 'context' whenever you (you being anyone) read any of my posts.

I hope this helps clarify the bigger picture of what I am doing when I make such posts that imply where I think the market may be moving to.

Originally posted by albert

...Jim is the predictor par excellance here...

Al Kamego

Thank you Jim for your thoughtful response to my comments. Regarding my comment calling you a “predictor,” all I can say is, boy did I stick my foot in my mouth on that one. Wow! Especially since it was Jim Kane who authored the excellent article, "The Myth of 'Predicting' the Market," which is a tremendous article.

http://www.kanetrading.com/free_art/predict.html

My apologies to you. I just have not been able to express my thoughts very well lately (maybe more than lately). I seem to be 'sticking my foot in my mouth' more than usual these last few days. The act of “predicting” the market is full of pitfalls, and you, imo, diligently avoid these pitfalls.
As you continue to point out, the markets are all about the odds. You, imo, are doing an excellent job providing your readers, and dare I say, the trading community, with the benefit of your thoughts and insights regarding the markets.
I really appreciate you’re providing this forum and I appreciate being able to read about your thoughts about the markets. I feel that it seems that only lately have I been able to notice “clues” that you stress so frequently.
I just re-read your article "The Myth of 'Predicting' the Market” and I need to reflect more on it. The ideas about working on improving all aspects of a plan is, imho, very wise.
Jim, I really appreciate your help and “words of wisdom.”

Al Kamego

Chart.

Al Kamego

Kane EXP ABCD. Nice.

Al Kamego

??

Watch this 1303-04 area here. It's key. I'm not sure it is going to do any more downside today, but this is the first really key spot for it to resume.

Kane 4PCP completing at 0.382 fibo.

Al Kamego

Around 6.50 is my next level, but keep in mind the key .447 is at 8.50. So, 'somewhere in there'.

The most likely move, I think, is a small checkback here off the first area, suck some people in, then a quick squirt up to the 6.50-8.50 level. Then we see. But, it might fool some people for it to dump off this first level here.

Watch 1.75 here, that may be all the dip it is going to do before 'the squirt'.

Asleep at the switch (keyboard). Actually, asleep on and off, but I was just too hammered to look at the forum anymore.

Originally posted by rat89

You still awake, jim?