Just over three hours. I can't wait... Lots of action over the weekend, including the 'big' Spanish bank bailout. Here's some food for thought. It's essentially identical to every comment on the topic I've made since the '09 bottom. As an intelligent investor I hear the news of a huge, monster (proportionately it's about double the size of our TARP) bailout of the ever so important Spanish banks, and I want to sell everything I own. Shoot first, and ask questions later. If it's that bad, I'm 'a steppin' aside'. But, I think there is a good chance this thing gaps up 20+ points. That is extra significant because we are in a key area. It may have one more little push up, or it could happen where it has already hit. Anyway, the market rockets up, through a brick wall area, on super bad news?

The logic is actually there. I still am caught up in the myth that it's a free market, that it discounts actual value, and that investors will be making decisions on the news. Wrong, in my opinion. It is nothing but manipulation. The powers that be will, of course, instruct their primary dealer minions to spend some of those trillions they are stealing from you and I to gun this up on the bad news, in order to prevent panic, scare hedge funds silly, and create an atmosphere of the market being thrilled to pieces with the bailout. Hence, all is, or will be, well. See, that's the game we actually have.

Combine this with a record short interest in the Euro and a short squeeze there is an accident waiting to happen. And Euro exploding has, since the '09 bottom, meant 'risk on'. This thing is all set up for a big leg up, as insane as that sounds (and is, in my opinion). And it would distress me tremendously if this great area is 'blown out'. But, alas, I am fully expecting these filthy scumbags will do it. To me it's tradeable no matter what it does, but some things would be easier for me to stomach. About three more hours and we'll know...

You're welcome. I wasn't sure if too many people were reading it, or finding it useful. Just my 'trader talk', posted to hopefully be of some use.

Originally posted by rat89

Great commentary through all of this ... Much appreciated

Especially look at the third chart (click on it to blow it up). Compare the current position of the indicator to the '10 and '11 corrections, especially the '11 correction. Yeah, that sentiment says this is surely over to the downside. Yeah, sure. Again, the one indicator that everyone is quoting all over the place is a real anomaly, as I mentioned elsewhere. Otherwise people are still wildly bullish, and that doesn't speak for a bottom being in place. It may be, but the sentiment doesn't indicate it, that's all I'm saying. Down into the end of July or August and then an election ramp still sounds the most likely to me.


http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-10/investor-sentiment-bull-signal-awaits

Originally posted by jimkane

The Euro spot FX is trading, up about 140 pips or so, nearest I can tell. That would indicate a monster gap up in the ES, probably on par (perhaps after the initial pop and then some running) of that 20+ I mentioned. We'll see, the correlation isn't always as good as it used to be. But, anything at all on par with this move in the Euro will likely blow out my wonderful area...

Same old, same old.

Simply amazing. Thank you for your thoughts.

Al Kamego

I stand corrected. I didn't give my area enough respect. The bulls didn't make their fortune, the 'one in a million' did play out, the 'I don't see it' did happen, the 'could fail' did happen, and the area did, once again, do its thing. The methodology sure can be amazing at times, and that gap up right into the area, pushing it to the very maximum, is one more example... I'm not making excuses for myself here, but I'm the first to admit, I lacked confidence to short this right off that top. Sure, big deal, I may have gained confidence once it really proved itself, but I didn't trust the methodology and the idea that the bulls wouldn't all make a ton that easily, and I waited to see some 'proof'.

Originally posted by jimkane

Is this still within the uppermost boundary of my area? Yes. Could it gap up, right to the uppermost boundary of the area, and in a climax move start to sell hard? Yes. What do I think the odds of that are? Oh, probably one in a million, if I'm being optimistic. This area is toast, that's fine (and the play off the 60-65 area is long anyway), but I had hopes maybe this first really key area may reassert the downtrend. Alas, though, it's not to be, I suspect...

All those bulls were right, and they'll be making the big bucks???

Originally posted by jimkane

So, anyway, we got the appx. 20 points I said we'd likely see. But I doubt it's anywhere near done. This looks like a +30 or even +40 by tomorrow type of move. Keep in mind, though, this area here is a serious test for it, and it could fail. Not likely, I just don't see it, but you never know.

Watch the little bearish ABCD here for clues, as this rises off a key area at that LOD. 'Chop in the low end of the range', something we haven't seen much lately? Or a real rise?

Reacts right off the ABCD.

Now watch 16.25-17.00 for the next clue.

Watch the TL around 15.50 if this area doesn't hold. But, I'd hate to fight this downtrend right now...

Okay, just enough through the TL that that might be it. A little trap and snap. Now we see. Up until recently, though, I'd say 'chop in the low end of the range' is by far the highest probability.

And the SPY 'breaks out' for another big push up, appx. 3.75 ES points from where it closed. Now that's impressive. They want it, and they want it bad. Can't wait to see the news over the weekend, and how the market takes it.