Am I the only one excited? Ready to go? The Greek elections are too close to call, but absolutely nothing indicates in any way any need for 'coordinated action' from central bankers, or any additional money printing. Nothing whatsoever, in my opinion. But, and here's the rub, the insane part: the market is expecting the printing.

Now, if they don't get it, the market would be inclined to go down. This would be 'disorderly', not in that it would be truly chaotic i.e. big selling, just a small decline of say a few points, and anything considered 'disorderly' justifies more money printing. So, I suspect we'll have some printing anyway, now that they announced it 'if necessary', and the market going down if they don't get it would make it 'necessary'. See the insanity of all this?

So, I expect a big pop on that announcement. In reality, this is set up as the mother of all 'sell the news' events, especially after that crazy pop into the close and good-sized additional run up in the SPY after the futures close. We shall see soon enough.

For me, this is among the most important layouts right now. Everyone sees this line. That means, to me, it is likely to be heavily 'gamed'. I also added a natural set on there that further supports the importance of that line. Of course this isn't a full workup, it's just one important concept that I am watching on this chart.

Here's one sick, twisted logical viewpoint (there is, of course, no real logic to it at all...). They print a bunch more money in Europe. The Euro should go down, but it goes... up. Euro up, dollar down, gold up and over the line. If they print a bunch or Euros shouldn't the Euro go down?

Well, the 'Euros' go into the market, the market goes up, and for the market to go up the USD has to go down. Dollar down, Euro up. Plain and simple. Besides, in the end, in my opinion, there really is no printing of Euros, it's always printing of dollars in reality. The Fed, their games, their swap lines, in the end all they are really printing is dollars... Just one man's opinion.





Chart created on QCharts courtesy eSignal

I have a few layers just overhead, from the current level around 38 to say 42 and change, and then at around 48ish. Somewhere in there the very short-term levels exhaust. The recent 1.272 ext ret is at 54 quart. I have some other things coming in around 58.50. So, I think there is a good chance it may shoot for something in that 54.25-58.50 area. It depends on how fast it gets there (since this matters as far as where the lines hit), and how it does it. I may be able to refine this later.

Once that area is breached, then it may be looking in the 80's (the 1.000 ABCD is at 83.50), or even at new highs. That would literally make me vomit. I'd have no trouble trading that side, but I'd be doing it with an airline puke bag handy. I would greatly prefer one of the above levels cap this 'rally'. And perhaps it is a sell the news event and down we go from here. Yeah, I wish...

Jim,

Thanks for the "heads-up."

Al Kamego

Remember, the greatest Qwack in history, the Bern-Qwacke, makes his big announcement on Wednesday, and we get to see how many more trillions he will forcibly appropriate from your lifetime savings (i.e. steal) to give to big banks so they can pay most of it out in bonuses and keep doing what they are doing, which is making record profits from 'trading', where 'trading' is defined as borrowing huge quantities of money from the Fed (i.e. your money stolen from you) at zero interest rate and buying long-dated treasuries at say 3%-4% (which means loaning the stolen money to the government so they can p#%& it away and steal it), and call the difference 'profit'. Nice deal.

T minus 30 and counting...

BTW, if my data is correct, when spot FX started trading the Euro gapped down, and then promptly exploded up about 200 pips from there, then backed off a little, now sitting like up 60 or so pips from the Friday close. Interesting.

Euro up about 90 pips now. That should lead to a nice, substantial pop up in the ES. Great.

Oops, now up 100 pips. Looks like they are buying like crazy into the open.

It still looks like the world's biggest sell the news event, but that was in 'the old days'. Hard to sell when the central banks are huge buyers...

ES indicated to open at 45, but when this happened last week it rose substantially from the open, then the 'sell the news' hit. I think it will gap up, rise, and not sell this time, but we'll see. The sell the news is just the 'fair' thing to do, so I doubt it will happen. This market is anything but 'fair', and that I can take into account when I look at possible scenarios.

Originally posted by jimkane

I have a few layers just overhead, from the current level around 38 to say 42 and change, and then at around 48ish. Somewhere in there the very short-term levels exhaust. The recent 1.272 ext ret is at 54 quart. I have some other things coming in around 58.50. So, I think there is a good chance it may shoot for something in that 54.25-58.50 area. It depends on how fast it gets there (since this matters as far as where the lines hit), and how it does it. I may be able to refine this later.

Once that area is breached, then it may be looking in the 80's (the 1.000 ABCD is at 83.50), or even at new highs. That would literally make me vomit. I'd have no trouble trading that side, but I'd be doing it with an airline puke bag handy. I would greatly prefer one of the above levels cap this 'rally'. And perhaps it is a sell the news event and down we go from here. Yeah, I wish...