JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Normally I would post this in the economics section, but I think it relates to trading a bit. This type of stuff is why we could, not necessarily will, resume the downtrend, and even the secular bear downtrend, not just a cyclical one. When I look at the reality of the situation a few things come to my mind. One, I can't see why this thing hasn't collapsed yet (the reason, I feel, is because these are the slickest, slipperiest conniving eels on the planet who will do anything to kick the can down the road a little longer).
Two, I feel more and more that collapse is, at some point, inevitable. And three, people like Carl Futia who keep talking endlessly bullish and downplaying Europe, for example, it's just so wrong, in my opinion. Not only wrong from the standpoint of what I think is going to happen, but morally wrong. Just plain morally reprehensible. To me it's like telling people in say Japan not to take shelter from a Tsunami after a big earthquake, and instead encouraging them to go on a picnic on the coast. From a trading standpoint, to me, all the things are in place for the big downturn, now all it needs is a trigger.
Now, if a guy like Carl was saying 'Listen, this thing is going to collapse, no doubt about it. It's a done deal. But, just not yet. They will print more and more, and it will funnel into the stock market instead of actually helping out the Average Joe. I plan to trade this to the upside, while still doing things to try to protect my family from what is coming.
I'm hoping I will get a sign things are turning, but I realize, too, it may be a triggering event and it could make the flash crash seem like child's play. Know this if you are trading the long side. For me, I am willing to take this risk to trade the last little bit of upside, as I get ready for what I think is going to be a long, long haul to the downside. Make sure if you follow what I do you are in a position to take that kind of risk!'
If I read that, I'd send him a note telling him I think he is doing people a great service, and if I ever run into him I'd like to shake his hand and buy him dinner. But I doubt I'll be shelling out for any dinners any time soon. So, follow those bulls at your own peril. I recall a famous trader from the Jesse Livermore days, I sure wish I could recall who said it, but it was like: 'Our job as speculators is to get on board a train that is loaded with people, and the train is headed for a cliff. The only difference between us and the rest of those on the train is, our job is to jump off right before the train goes over the cliff...'
That sums it all up quite well. When I hear Carl and the rest say 'Okay, that's about it on this bull, I'm starting to short everything in sight' I'll have a new found respect for them. But, in my experience, just like all those dotcoms that were nearing $1,000, the top analysts held their 'strong buy' recommendations all the way down to $1 a share. None of those bulls will ever be bearish, they'll call every minor swing bottom 'the bottom' all the way down, until they are right, once. It's just the way it is. Traders beware!
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-23/forget-piigs-eu-whole-insolvent
Two, I feel more and more that collapse is, at some point, inevitable. And three, people like Carl Futia who keep talking endlessly bullish and downplaying Europe, for example, it's just so wrong, in my opinion. Not only wrong from the standpoint of what I think is going to happen, but morally wrong. Just plain morally reprehensible. To me it's like telling people in say Japan not to take shelter from a Tsunami after a big earthquake, and instead encouraging them to go on a picnic on the coast. From a trading standpoint, to me, all the things are in place for the big downturn, now all it needs is a trigger.
Now, if a guy like Carl was saying 'Listen, this thing is going to collapse, no doubt about it. It's a done deal. But, just not yet. They will print more and more, and it will funnel into the stock market instead of actually helping out the Average Joe. I plan to trade this to the upside, while still doing things to try to protect my family from what is coming.
I'm hoping I will get a sign things are turning, but I realize, too, it may be a triggering event and it could make the flash crash seem like child's play. Know this if you are trading the long side. For me, I am willing to take this risk to trade the last little bit of upside, as I get ready for what I think is going to be a long, long haul to the downside. Make sure if you follow what I do you are in a position to take that kind of risk!'
If I read that, I'd send him a note telling him I think he is doing people a great service, and if I ever run into him I'd like to shake his hand and buy him dinner. But I doubt I'll be shelling out for any dinners any time soon. So, follow those bulls at your own peril. I recall a famous trader from the Jesse Livermore days, I sure wish I could recall who said it, but it was like: 'Our job as speculators is to get on board a train that is loaded with people, and the train is headed for a cliff. The only difference between us and the rest of those on the train is, our job is to jump off right before the train goes over the cliff...'
That sums it all up quite well. When I hear Carl and the rest say 'Okay, that's about it on this bull, I'm starting to short everything in sight' I'll have a new found respect for them. But, in my experience, just like all those dotcoms that were nearing $1,000, the top analysts held their 'strong buy' recommendations all the way down to $1 a share. None of those bulls will ever be bearish, they'll call every minor swing bottom 'the bottom' all the way down, until they are right, once. It's just the way it is. Traders beware!
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-23/forget-piigs-eu-whole-insolvent
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Many may wonder why I have deviated from my 'rule' that I never 'put down' anyone else or really talk in any negative manner about anyone else. I try to just do my own thing, and let everyone else do theirs, trying to maximize my 'karma' that way. Well, first, as I said, I'm not really picking on anyone as much as just using examples out there to try to educate my readers in here in order to help them learn and avoid certain mistakes and traps. But, there is a bigger point.
To me, the saying 'If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem' comes to mind. I see what the scumbags are doing to our country (and the world), our savings, our money. They are destroying it, and they won't stop, they won't be satisfied, until they have it all. Mark my words. We are very limited as to what we can do to stop them, and I hate it. Hate it. Now, I used to watch CNBC, for example, but stopped after the meltdown. It is now jokingly called CNBS on most blogs. They are nothing but rah-rah cheerleaders, propaganda mouthpieces for the evil scum destroying our country and our bank accounts, in my opinion.
Are they just as bad as the scum? To my way of thinking, they are. Who is worse, the thief or the fence? The contract killer or the one who pays him? I think they are equally responsible. And who is worse here, the scum perpetrating this, or the ones rah-rah cheerleading it, the propaganda mongers who convince mom and pop that the market is good, and healthy, and a nice place to make money from?
I always say 'Where's the money coming from?' If the market is going up and up and up, where is the money coming from? True organic growth and profits garnered from the hard work of the company's workers? Or from stolen taxpayer's and saver's money being pushed into the market, along with tons of propaganda to convince people everything is back to normal, and ethical. We know otherwise, hence you see roofer and I mention holding our noses and taking the trade. We recognize how evil this is, and within that context we still are willing to participate, but not without telling others about our perception of what is going on.
So, why do I seem to 'pick' on Carl? It's like when the head of the household arrives home and after a bad day at work, he kicks the dog because the dog is right there, handy. To me, Carl is a rah-rah cheerleader, making the problem worse. He a propaganda-meister for the bad guys. No matter what the evidence, no matter the how or why, he pumps the market. He justifies why it is going up, but never discusses the evil of it all. He's part of the problem, in my opinion. And he's right out there, popular, and I just don't like it. So, he becomes the obvious target for me.
I'm not so much picking on him as trying to have everyone see how I think we should all be very discerning, very ethical, in what we do, as best as we can. We can still try to make money, but let's try to be as ethical as we can about it. If we make money trading the long side, understand where the money comes from. Perhaps try to balance the scales a bit, pay the universe back for what we gain that way, by trying to spread the word about what is going on, the injustice of it, and try to help educate others to help them out, and to allow them the knowledge to spread the word. That's what I am getting at.
'If you are not a part of the solution, then you are a part of the problem.'
To me, the saying 'If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem' comes to mind. I see what the scumbags are doing to our country (and the world), our savings, our money. They are destroying it, and they won't stop, they won't be satisfied, until they have it all. Mark my words. We are very limited as to what we can do to stop them, and I hate it. Hate it. Now, I used to watch CNBC, for example, but stopped after the meltdown. It is now jokingly called CNBS on most blogs. They are nothing but rah-rah cheerleaders, propaganda mouthpieces for the evil scum destroying our country and our bank accounts, in my opinion.
Are they just as bad as the scum? To my way of thinking, they are. Who is worse, the thief or the fence? The contract killer or the one who pays him? I think they are equally responsible. And who is worse here, the scum perpetrating this, or the ones rah-rah cheerleading it, the propaganda mongers who convince mom and pop that the market is good, and healthy, and a nice place to make money from?
I always say 'Where's the money coming from?' If the market is going up and up and up, where is the money coming from? True organic growth and profits garnered from the hard work of the company's workers? Or from stolen taxpayer's and saver's money being pushed into the market, along with tons of propaganda to convince people everything is back to normal, and ethical. We know otherwise, hence you see roofer and I mention holding our noses and taking the trade. We recognize how evil this is, and within that context we still are willing to participate, but not without telling others about our perception of what is going on.
So, why do I seem to 'pick' on Carl? It's like when the head of the household arrives home and after a bad day at work, he kicks the dog because the dog is right there, handy. To me, Carl is a rah-rah cheerleader, making the problem worse. He a propaganda-meister for the bad guys. No matter what the evidence, no matter the how or why, he pumps the market. He justifies why it is going up, but never discusses the evil of it all. He's part of the problem, in my opinion. And he's right out there, popular, and I just don't like it. So, he becomes the obvious target for me.
I'm not so much picking on him as trying to have everyone see how I think we should all be very discerning, very ethical, in what we do, as best as we can. We can still try to make money, but let's try to be as ethical as we can about it. If we make money trading the long side, understand where the money comes from. Perhaps try to balance the scales a bit, pay the universe back for what we gain that way, by trying to spread the word about what is going on, the injustice of it, and try to help educate others to help them out, and to allow them the knowledge to spread the word. That's what I am getting at.
'If you are not a part of the solution, then you are a part of the problem.'
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think this chart may be more significant than the silver chart I posted. Think about how the SPX followed crude so well, and what it means if it 'catches up', as I would think it would.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/06/21/twisted/oilspx/
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/06/21/twisted/oilspx/
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Hmmmm, life is funny. I just got informed my sister was driving with her daughter (my niece), got t-boned and was killed. Her daughter is in critical condition and may not survive. No other details are available right now. I'm not posting this here to gather any sympathy. I know people will post their condolences even if I say I don't need them to. I will likely post as usual, just to keep my mind occupied, but I may also not post, depending on how I handle this as it sinks in. I'm not quite sure how good my mindset will be for trading over the next few days. I guess we will find out. Anyway, go be with your families right now and don't take anything for granted.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Right now the Euro is trading down a tiny bit, so that implies a somewhat flat open for the ES.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I am a big believer in secular trends (the 17.2 year cycle and so on), and how the layouts are frequently similar. I posted on this many times, in advance, and look at how well this has followed the last cycle so far. What does this possibly say about the future?
http://socialtrade.com/dynamic/file/full/2369#
http://socialtrade.com/dynamic/file/full/2369#
TO
TonyC
Rep: 99
Posts: 471
Jim,
My thoughts and prayers goes out to you and your family. I am sincerely sorry to hear about that tragic and sad event that you're going through in your life right now. I know you've been through a lot and we are only human but Please stay strong and come back to us in good health.
Sincerely,
Tony C.
My thoughts and prayers goes out to you and your family. I am sincerely sorry to hear about that tragic and sad event that you're going through in your life right now. I know you've been through a lot and we are only human but Please stay strong and come back to us in good health.
Sincerely,
Tony C.
