Well, here goes another week of doing this all by myself. The number of reads for my topic actually outnumbered the reads for the open section, and I started it part way into the week, so I know people are following it. I just miss the possibility of the back and forth, as limited as it was. And it's too early to tell, but it seems like the posts in the open section have dropped since all this started.

This is just not how I envisioned this forum. I'm very saddened by it. I'll keep plugging away because people like tomo tell me this forum is important to them. I know I have a small, core group that read it pretty much day in and day out. But it just doesn't 'feel' the way it should to me. I had a vision, I got kind of close at times, but it really feels far away right now. And that's too bad.

I've got a few scenarios I'm watching. Perhaps it doesn't like any of them. That's the way it goes sometimes. But, this is the framework around which I am looking for some potential trades right now. As soon as I get some additional price action, I can integrate that info in and that may have me changing the possible scenarios I am looking at.

One scenario is that this continues to weaken here. If so, I would only be looking for a small move to sweep the stops and hit my next key level. That would be around 1411.00-1412.50 (center of area), give or take. From here I would expect a bounce. The argument to this scenario is that it has fallen so much and so hard into the close on Friday that it may bounce right here (see scenario #2). There is also quite a confluence of factors right at the previous low that it could play a game and bounce there. That seems less likely because it is so obvious, but sometimes they do the obvious to screw with people.

The next scenario, the one I think I actually prefer, is that it bounces right here, and heads to about 35.50- 37.50. Keep in mind, the key .300 is at 34.38, and the key .447 is at 39.70, so anywhere in there and I'll be looking at the price action. I will also use what happens to get there for additional information as to the likely spot I want to watch. But that range is really all I need. Then it's about if it gives me a trigger.

I think the latter scenario increases the chances that the trend may keep moving down for a little bit. If it does continue down (something that seems almost unfathomable in this current post Mar '09 environment), I am watching around that low to mid-80's I had mentioned way back. It could be as high as even 90, though. If it did make a move down, I'd do work based on what it did on the way there to hopefully pinpoint this a bit better. But, there is probably little chance that I will even get to do that work...

And yes, it may just act like a 'W2' retest here of the big basically flat ABCD, and up it goes, maybe to new highs, or to the 'range top'. They may go back into election mode, after yet another (of so, so many) 'one day wonders' to the downside. And if this is a 'top', tops can be complex formations, and it may hang around for awhile and then once the election is over and the 'fiscal cliff' nightmare starts, the true bear can reemerge. That surely is a possibility.

Look, I have no idea what this will do. I never do. I can't tell fortunes. I just try to come up with scenarios I may be able to trade against, and pick one or two (or sometimes three) that I think have the highest odds of playing out. Then I can only make my plays if I so choose, and manage them accordingly. The chips fall where they may. If things appear to change for me, technically or in the sense I get about the character of the market, then I change scenarios, and fast. Sometimes I change before the ink is dry on a post. I never marry a position, or a potential scenario. Keep all this in mind as you do your work.

BTW, spot FX is trading about flat on the Aussie and Euro. That implies, right now, about a flat opening in the ES. I think the ES tends to be a little bit 'richer' than the spot FX indicates, so if nothing changes then the ES may open up say 0.50-1.00. First ES indications come at 5:45 PM EST.

ES first indications: +0.50. What a shocker.

And now indicated at +1.00.

Well, well, well. No bounce so far. What a nice start to the week. Hopefully it can get down to the next level soon.

Of course we all know now that I said that the bounce is surely started...

It had one more little shake, by a tick, and now looks like it thinks it has turned up. We shall see.

Pretty easy read, that was.

Originally posted by jimkane

It had one more little shake, by a tick, and now looks like it thinks it has turned up. We shall see.

Notice how the Four Horsemen of 'Risk On', ES, CL, GC, and 6A all moved together.

All right, let me do my spiel on the forum and posting. It will be long, and rambling. In other words, typical Jim.

These last two weeks have been extremely discouraging to me. I'm down. Seriously down. I've done this forum for just about six years now. This will be my 17,107th post, if I read that right. Just try to imagine that. That's like an average of eleven posts a day for every trading day for six straight years. I'm tired. My health is none too good.

I had visions of why I created this forum, and what I was trying to accomplish. It was my job to try to keep it on track. Everyone has their own vision of what they are trying to do, and what they want to get out of it. Ultimately, though, it has been my job to steer the ship. It sounds easy. It's not.

The forum has devolved to me posting a bunch, followed by a bunch of rat posts, the occasional roofer burst, and then a few scattered posts by people like Al. There is very little discussion. I wanted discussion. Questions. Give and take. It was not to be. I've spent endless hours pondering why that is, and trying different things, but to no avail. Nothing I did mattered; it brought no more posts, and no more discussion. So I would fill the empty space with more and more endless posts.

In other words, I’ve been wandering in the desert by myself. Now I’m really tired, and very frustrated by the last few weeks. It has me rethinking my mission, and what I’m doing here. As the two weeks has passed by, I kept posting more and more. Like somehow I expected my herculean effort to motivate someone to start a new topic, for more than one person to respond to my request for feedback. But, no. Nothing. Dead silence. Crickets chirping in the background. The people have spoken. Loud and clear.

Now, part of me wants to ‘retaliate’. I will respond in kind. Part of me realizes this will punish the handful that follow me day in and day out. That would not be fair to them. So, I find myself in a quandary. I do not want to go forward and do another 150 posts next week (that’s still almost 30 a day when Sunday is accounted for, and I only post a small part of the trading day). It reached the point of rambling, posting on every little wiggle, for something to do. Yes, I could cut back, keep to just the most salient points. Many have said they like my KT philosophy posts, and explanations of what I am thinking, and why. That’s one ‘solution’.

Still, I am busting my a#% off in here, and I ask my serious readers for input, to help me in my direction with this new approach, and I get one response. One. Are you f#%&in’ serious? One? No one else is even willing to stop for two minutes and help me out, for all I give? That makes me a little upset (I’m exaggerating to the downside for effect), and makes me want to quit. I can’t get any discussion in an open forum, and I can’t even get feedback about how you want me to post? It only makes sense for me to quit at this point.

Now, one thing I thought of is that I can require a feedback e-mail from everyone who wants to remain a follower in here. Send me feedback by a certain date, or I will delete your name from the permissions. I can even do a little form about what I am asking for. But, I recall when I was thinking awhile back that everyone should participate in the forum in order to enjoy all the benefits, and do like two posts every whatever the time period was, and the backlash was insane. I got down votes, I got people telling me they hated the idea. Geez.

When I look at what I have been willing to do to get to where I am, the dues I was willing to pay, the hours, the work, whatever it takes was my attitude. If I had a resource like me available to me not only would I have asked so many questions I’d have probably gotten myself booted out, if I was told I needed to jump through this and that and the other hoops, I’d have said ‘When do we start?’ I know, because I’ve played that game with some pretty mean mentors in other fields in the past. Some were very mean people, and treated me very badly. I endured it because what I got from them, as far as learning, was simply not available anywhere else.

And I’m not treating anyone mean. I bend over backwards to try to give of myself. Maybe that’s part of the problem. I never made participation a requirement from the start. I never gave clear guidelines for posters to avoid trouble like we had a few weeks back. I never ‘took charge’ right from the start. I acted, to a great extent, like California parents in the 60’s. Let the kids do whatever they want, eat what they want, go to bed when they want, go to school if they want, they’ll do the right thing. And now they are older, and how’s that working for you? Now it’s too late.

So, do I just archive the forum at this point? If no one else is going to post, I am not going to leave the forum as is and feel like a total a#%. It goes to archive status. Do I keep posting? If the forum is archived, I might as well post, if I am going to post, in a blog. Should I just finally call it good after six years? I’m tired, my health isn’t good, why am I doing this? I can’t even get more than one person to tell me what they want out of my postings, what helps them the most. I already know tomo doesn’t want me to quit, and really gets a lot out of my postings. I also know what the one person who gave me feedback thinks. (Maybe I should say two people are willing to tell me, since I basically said tomo doesn’t need to respond, his viewpoint is clear.)

Part of me is leaning towards creating a little form and giving everyone a few days to fill it out or your permissions are deleted. There are no right or wrong answers. I just want to know what you want out of my postings. KT theory discussion? More discussion about example trade sequences from start to finish? More levels? More about why I see things the way I do at a given time? More price action reading? And on and on. What isn’t useful? Is it better with other people posting, or do you prefer a pure KT section? Would discussion and give and take be helpful (even though this is a theoretical question, since it can never, ever be…)?

One other option I am considering is to take a break. Let the forum ‘go dark’ for awhile. I think if I do that most will leave, never to return, and that would bring the numbers down to a level that won’t make it worth me coming back. But, I could give that a try. So, those are some of the things I am pondering. I just know it can’t go on like this. It’s no longer appealing to me. It’s kind of too bad, too, because it seemed like things were going okay, and then other people do things, things which they perceive as completely fine, and maybe many agree with them, and it sends the forum on a downward spiral which may, in the end, bring it to a close after all this time. How crazy is that?