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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Well, here goes another week of doing this all by myself. The number of reads for my topic actually outnumbered the reads for the open section, and I started it part way into the week, so I know people are following it. I just miss the possibility of the back and forth, as limited as it was. And it's too early to tell, but it seems like the posts in the open section have dropped since all this started.

This is just not how I envisioned this forum. I'm very saddened by it. I'll keep plugging away because people like tomo tell me this forum is important to them. I know I have a small, core group that read it pretty much day in and day out. But it just doesn't 'feel' the way it should to me. I had a vision, I got kind of close at times, but it really feels far away right now. And that's too bad.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Bah-Zynga! ZNGA down over 86% since its IPO high, at another new all-time low today. Gotta love those IPO's.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
And they just crush the ES off that .447. Just crush it into the cash close.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
NFLX getting simply pommeled, just totally monkey-hammered, in the AH. FB also down. Gotta love it.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
FB reversed and is now way, way, way up. Up almost 16% off the low. Too funny. But typical. Posted here just for fun.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
FB just smokin'.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
It's on fire!
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
ES right at key TL's and set lines here. This will tell a lot, what it does here. I'd think it would try for the 25-30 area, or much more if this 'correction' is over. Many key higher timeframe TL's on many indices/sectors have been violated, but everyone I see is posting this. So, immediate follow through to the downside seems highly unlikely. And, an obvious 'backtest' also seems unlikely. So, I'm expecting a punch up over the 'backtest' lines as probably the highest probability scenario right now. But, I want to see how it handles this area, and a few others, too. Notice the strong correlation in this rise amongst the 'Four Horsemen' of 'Risk On', ES, CL, GC, and 6A. All rising quite nicely together. Same old, same old.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Keep in mind, too, there are a slew of European reports out at and shortly after the European open, 'Dragh Queen' shoots his mouth off several times, then the BOC reports, and then The ChairSatan BernQwacke does his dance. All of that is set up fantastically to really juice this market up. So, looking at nothing more than 20+ and say 30 off the low is low to mid-20s, and low 30's. .447 off the 'bulls#%&' market high is 31.50. .382 off the key 10/18 high is at 24.06, all by my data. So, without doing any more technical work I can already get a handle on what this may want. Just some thoughts.

And, look. I'm already long side bias off the low today. The more it ramps, the better it is for having a long side bias, right? So, that .382/.447 confluence around 27.25-.75 at multiple line backtests, that would be great. But I don't have to enjoy one single tick of it, even if I'm 'rooting' for it to happen. Just so that's clear.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Understand, from the last post, I'm saying that rough, back of the envelope look tells me two basic levels. Now I do my fully detailed work, and see if some big things fall on either spot. For example, I'm doing some work now and I'm getting lots and lots of things hitting between 28-30. Hmmm, now isn't that interesting. I'm seeing other things at the lower level. One must do the work. Fully and completely. But I can start with frameworks, ideas, then see what comes together. And all this is based on it overcoming this area here, which so far it hasn't done.

And it is doing a slow, grinding creep up a key line. In the old days that would pretty much spell doom for it, in my experience. Since the manipulation started big-time in Mar '09 (the post 666 era), that usually means an upside explosion. Add on just a slew of data reports and mouth-shooting events, and I can't see how it won't overcome this area. But, you never know. Bigger forces may be in play, with the election coming up and all. This might be setting up for two weeks of hell (well, heaven for me) and in comes Mittens.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Looking quite good now. Took out that area and the HOD. Now I watch what? To see if this is a 1-2-tick game here, just a probe of the stops, and that's it, or a real 'breakout'. There is lots of short-term 'layered resistance' coming up, so it will have to have some 'Oomph' to get up to my area. We shall see.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
All right, let me do my spiel on the forum and posting. It will be long, and rambling. In other words, typical Jim.

These last two weeks have been extremely discouraging to me. I'm down. Seriously down. I've done this forum for just about six years now. This will be my 17,107th post, if I read that right. Just try to imagine that. That's like an average of eleven posts a day for every trading day for six straight years. I'm tired. My health is none too good.

I had visions of why I created this forum, and what I was trying to accomplish. It was my job to try to keep it on track. Everyone has their own vision of what they are trying to do, and what they want to get out of it. Ultimately, though, it has been my job to steer the ship. It sounds easy. It's not.

The forum has devolved to me posting a bunch, followed by a bunch of rat posts, the occasional roofer burst, and then a few scattered posts by people like Al. There is very little discussion. I wanted discussion. Questions. Give and take. It was not to be. I've spent endless hours pondering why that is, and trying different things, but to no avail. Nothing I did mattered; it brought no more posts, and no more discussion. So I would fill the empty space with more and more endless posts.

In other words, I’ve been wandering in the desert by myself. Now I’m really tired, and very frustrated by the last few weeks. It has me rethinking my mission, and what I’m doing here. As the two weeks has passed by, I kept posting more and more. Like somehow I expected my herculean effort to motivate someone to start a new topic, for more than one person to respond to my request for feedback. But, no. Nothing. Dead silence. Crickets chirping in the background. The people have spoken. Loud and clear.

Now, part of me wants to ‘retaliate’. I will respond in kind. Part of me realizes this will punish the handful that follow me day in and day out. That would not be fair to them. So, I find myself in a quandary. I do not want to go forward and do another 150 posts next week (that’s still almost 30 a day when Sunday is accounted for, and I only post a small part of the trading day). It reached the point of rambling, posting on every little wiggle, for something to do. Yes, I could cut back, keep to just the most salient points. Many have said they like my KT philosophy posts, and explanations of what I am thinking, and why. That’s one ‘solution’.

Still, I am busting my a#% off in here, and I ask my serious readers for input, to help me in my direction with this new approach, and I get one response. One. Are you f#%&in’ serious? One? No one else is even willing to stop for two minutes and help me out, for all I give? That makes me a little upset (I’m exaggerating to the downside for effect), and makes me want to quit. I can’t get any discussion in an open forum, and I can’t even get feedback about how you want me to post? It only makes sense for me to quit at this point.

Now, one thing I thought of is that I can require a feedback e-mail from everyone who wants to remain a follower in here. Send me feedback by a certain date, or I will delete your name from the permissions. I can even do a little form about what I am asking for. But, I recall when I was thinking awhile back that everyone should participate in the forum in order to enjoy all the benefits, and do like two posts every whatever the time period was, and the backlash was insane. I got down votes, I got people telling me they hated the idea. Geez.

When I look at what I have been willing to do to get to where I am, the dues I was willing to pay, the hours, the work, whatever it takes was my attitude. If I had a resource like me available to me not only would I have asked so many questions I’d have probably gotten myself booted out, if I was told I needed to jump through this and that and the other hoops, I’d have said ‘When do we start?’ I know, because I’ve played that game with some pretty mean mentors in other fields in the past. Some were very mean people, and treated me very badly. I endured it because what I got from them, as far as learning, was simply not available anywhere else.

And I’m not treating anyone mean. I bend over backwards to try to give of myself. Maybe that’s part of the problem. I never made participation a requirement from the start. I never gave clear guidelines for posters to avoid trouble like we had a few weeks back. I never ‘took charge’ right from the start. I acted, to a great extent, like California parents in the 60’s. Let the kids do whatever they want, eat what they want, go to bed when they want, go to school if they want, they’ll do the right thing. And now they are older, and how’s that working for you? Now it’s too late.

So, do I just archive the forum at this point? If no one else is going to post, I am not going to leave the forum as is and feel like a total a#%. It goes to archive status. Do I keep posting? If the forum is archived, I might as well post, if I am going to post, in a blog. Should I just finally call it good after six years? I’m tired, my health isn’t good, why am I doing this? I can’t even get more than one person to tell me what they want out of my postings, what helps them the most. I already know tomo doesn’t want me to quit, and really gets a lot out of my postings. I also know what the one person who gave me feedback thinks. (Maybe I should say two people are willing to tell me, since I basically said tomo doesn’t need to respond, his viewpoint is clear.)

Part of me is leaning towards creating a little form and giving everyone a few days to fill it out or your permissions are deleted. There are no right or wrong answers. I just want to know what you want out of my postings. KT theory discussion? More discussion about example trade sequences from start to finish? More levels? More about why I see things the way I do at a given time? More price action reading? And on and on. What isn’t useful? Is it better with other people posting, or do you prefer a pure KT section? Would discussion and give and take be helpful (even though this is a theoretical question, since it can never, ever be…)?

One other option I am considering is to take a break. Let the forum ‘go dark’ for awhile. I think if I do that most will leave, never to return, and that would bring the numbers down to a level that won’t make it worth me coming back. But, I could give that a try. So, those are some of the things I am pondering. I just know it can’t go on like this. It’s no longer appealing to me. It’s kind of too bad, too, because it seemed like things were going okay, and then other people do things, things which they perceive as completely fine, and maybe many agree with them, and it sends the forum on a downward spiral which may, in the end, bring it to a close after all this time. How crazy is that?