Well, I've been pondering and pondering what I should do, and I'm still undecided. I did get one more feedback e-mail, and it was extremely favorable towards the separate, closed KT commentary. The main thinking was it was pure KT thinking, and that was why this particular person was here. I received the opinions of one person I was in contact with and the one e-mail I first received when I asked for feedback, and they thought the separate area was good, but also felt there was value in the posts from others (I agree).

My thinking is that likely we won't see any posts in here from anyone else, probably ever. So, that makes me think I should just take that off the table. The opposite side of the coin is that I could start a topic each week for others to post, and it likely would just go empty week after week, but perhaps that would embolden someone to post. To have someone like Al stop posting really sucks. He's been a steady contributor. And we all miss rat's posts, of that I am sure. I can't speak for anyone else, but I can see how people might be wary now to jump in and post.

I was also pondering maybe continuing my closed thread, then having another thread for questions to me. That sounds like two threads that should be one, and they are. But if I just open up 'my' KT thread, what do I do when someone comes in and just posts a chart that is totally unrelated to what I am doing? I just don't want to play that game. In the old days it was called 'thread hijacking', but nowadays many do it all the time and never think twice. You're in a forum and the topic in 'New Mexico chili peppers' and someone comes in and posts a picture of their sailboat and starts talking about their trip to the Caribbean. What??? Happens all the time.

So, if I did a strictly KT thread, at least in the 'old days', it just wouldn't stay on topic. Nowadays I strongly suspect no one will ever post to this forum again. And that may, indeed, continue because no one dares to break the ice and be the first to post after all these weeks with no posts. It's purely insane, I've never seen anything like it, but it is what is going on right now. Hence, I could do another thread just for questions related to my topic.

Those are some of the things I am considering, as well as taking an extended break, and just archiving the forum and continuing my endless posts in blog format elsewhere. Other than the one e-mail I got, which was very pro my posts about as they are, no one will send me an e-mail and just tell me what they prefer, as far as the type of posts I do. Geez, I just can't grasp this.

I know I'm not world famous (well, in some small circles I guess I am...), but imagine some world authority at something I was interested in, I'm following his blog/forum, I have a zillion questions for him, and he begs and begs and begs for some e-mail contact, tell him what you want, please, he says. I try to imagine myself following along, and in this situation. And I decide, no, I won't contact him, I won't tell him what I want him to do for me, even though he's offering to do it for free, I'll just let it slide. And he says without contact he is so frustrated he is going to pull the plug on the daily free stuff, and my response? Okay. I'm still not going to contact him. What?

I have various people I respect, and there is no way to contact them. They wouldn't give me the time of day. Imagine they are busting their a#% off to give me free stuff, free stuff I want, and they ask me to contact them, and I say no, thanks. I'm just baffled as to what the dynamic is here. And probably I'll solve this, some day, maybe some day soon, in this manner.

I'll move the venue elsewhere, let's say. The new area will require a password. To get the password, you'll have to contact me. I'll say to get in the forum, you must contact me for a password, and fill out this form. The form will ask a lot of questions about what you want, what is most useful, etc. If the form isn't filled out, the e-mail gets deleted. Of course, I could do that here. I could just delete every user's permission, and then create a form page where I refer people to, and if I get any requests without the form filled out to my satisfaction, out it goes.

And if no one will even tell me what they prefer (maybe I could make it multiple choice), then so be it, I'm off the hook, project done, and I've got some free time to do other things. So be it. Hey, that's sounding good. I'll think this over some more, hope I get some additional feedback, then make my decision. This last one, though, sounds pretty good.

This has the look like it is about to sell. That still has my wondering if that 'look' is on purpose. I've been studying that concept particularly hard lately.

See? See why I posted that? Absolutely straight up on the 1-min, to a new high for the move. What did I see there? I'm not sure what it is I see, but I sure feel like I can see it a lot of the time. I'm studying it, that's for sure.

Originally posted by jimkane

This has the look like it is about to sell. That still has my wondering if that 'look' is on purpose. I've been studying that concept particularly hard lately.

It's goin' nuts, and I can't get to bed... You all know what I'm watching.

So, the market does it's best to make an a#% out of me again, as far as posting. What was the answer to this question? 17-19 was obviously an area, or I wouldn't have posted this. Answer: it was so obvious I doubted they would use that for a major sell. I though, at best, they would bring it down to a .382/.447 off that (but probably less) and suck people in, then up to the next level, that 25 area.

Just look at a 240-min chart, ES all-sessions, and draw a few horizontal lines and you'll see what everyone else sees. Way too obvious. And right off it it goes... So, is this going to be a deep 'W2' here and now it goes up? Still a trap, but not how I expected it. I will say, for sure, that after last Monday they have been doing some very curious, very odd things with it.

Originally posted by jimkane

P.S. If this gets moving, why not the 17-19 area??? Ponder that.

Here's something I wanted to point out, although it is rather obvious. I post all the time before-the-fact. Most don't. I'm not saying, like many cynics do, that after-the-fact is useless. I think it can have great utility. It can teach various techniques quite well. All the initial work I do in mentoring a student is all with after-the-fact examples. At that point the goal is teaching a specific technique, or aspect of a technique. After-the-fact is far superior for that, in my opinion.

At some point, though, as far as posting, I think before-the-fact has merit. I want people to grasp that in my experience (and mine alone, since I have only experienced my own life), trading is ugly. Some trades or little slices of trading can be very beautiful, and most setups I look at are quite beautiful to me, but overall, the experience of trading is an ugly, messy one. Almost nothing goes according to script from start to finish.

After-the-fact trades posted by most posters tend to show trades that went 100% according to script. This is fantasyland trading. I try to show trading as it is, very, very ugly. At least all trading as I know it. You're stepping and fetching, wiggling and squirming, trying to maximize the situation you suddenly find yourself in. To me, you know what that mess is? Trading. Hey, maybe my skills just completely suck. Maybe I'm deluded in how I view what I've come up with. Maybe it really is as easy as some show. Unfortunately for me, I have never seen any of that real time, and I can't make it work for me. So, I'm stuck with 'ugly'.

So, back to what I want. I want people to see my thoughts in real time. See how my highest probability scenario didn't play out, but another scenario instead. How sometimes things see an area and react nicely, but don't get to the expected area, instead falling short and requiring management skills to take over. How sometimes areas I expect to be highly respected are spit on. This is the way it is in the real world. It's a probability game, and I'm just looking for slight edges. PTA's are but 10%-20% of that 'Trading Plan'.

What I want to be obvious is that day in and day out, I am in here talking before-the-fact. The good, the bad, and the ugly. I wish we could look at trade sequences, but I can't look at anything that has a specific look to it. Because I sell 'products' I can't do anything that even hints like a claim. No results, no actual trades discussed, nothing even hinting at 'I did this'.

Every aspect of my discussion must be 100% educational (or, as the website says 'For educational and entertainment purposes only.'). So, although I can add in some entry technique educational points, and some management or 'context' educational points, I can't present anything specific, whether I actually traded the issue or not, just to be on the safe side.

That's how I came to present things as I do. My viewpoints, my techniques, as real world as I can show them, with the goal being for people to increase their knowledge reading me. How many others are truly doing this? When what I have as a high probability (or any probability) scenario doesn't play out, I own it right away (or, if I remember posting it, I do). I don't cover it up or play it down. It's all probabilities. I call 'em as I see 'em, and then the job is to go to work and make the best of the situation you find yourself in. To me, that's the real world. So, I ask again (think over the places you follow, with a very discerning eye), how many people actually do what I just said?

Look at this go off that little dip! Awesome!

BTW, if it wasn't obvious, my bias definitely shifted, for short-term intraday plays, to long when that low was hit.

Now this sounds like some after-the-fact mumbo jumbo, but it's mentioned to get everyone to do the work. I'm trying to direct the work you do, so you can see more of what I see. In that last post I mentioned how my bias had shifted, short-term intraday, off that low. I, obviously, meant the LOD. There are lots of reasons why I would have shifted there. See if you can find some of them.

Now, right after I posted that the ES dumped. Why might that be? The most key line was right in there, and some of the 'proprietary' Fib work I show mentor students had a wicked confluence there. You don't need that to find the area, but it was a really nice confluence and surely would catch one's attention.

And yes, I have developed lots of additional work since the last book some seven years ago. In some ways I feel like I've learned and developed more in the last year or two than all the time before that. I am not going to reveal that for the price of a book, so someone can post it to a forum somewhere, after I spent thousands and thousands of hours figuring it out. That's just plain silly.

I do show most of it to the very limited number of mentor students I have, with strict non-disclosure agreements. Probably I'm about done doing mentoring anyway. It's been over nine years since I started the KT project, and it may have run it's course, as far as 'the public'. So, for those who 'get p#%&ed' when I mention other techniques, sorry, but maybe you need to find a forum that doesn't p#%& you off. A free one, too.

Point is, this is a split forum, in that I have book set buyers in here, and mentor students who have went the extra mile, paid up, and so on, and I am trying to address them, too. So I mention things to them so they know where to look in addition to the 'regular' material. If that bothers people too much I can split the forum into one for mentor students and one for book set buyers, and it won't be an issue. But where do you think most of my posting will be? I suspect the people who this used to bother are long gone now, but in case not, I wanted to mention that.

Let me get back to my point and finish this up. I am still trying to 'find' myself in this new KT only closed thread format. What little feedback I've gotten is very positive. I am going to try to post less, though, since that must posting is just too much for me. I'll try to post at key points, but those are also my busiest times. I wish I would have posted the area above before-the-fact, but I can't do it all. So, this one you'll have to do the work and see how it jumped off the screen. If you don't see it, keep working.

24... As it is written, so shall it be. They had to do a deep 'W2' before it got there, but I 'knew' it wanted there. Now it's a 'bearish' ABCD (1.000 within a tick), too. But that's not what I was thinking when I thought it wanted the 25 area. Although this is a classic pattern into an area, I have a feeling it's a 'W3' and it wants up quite a bit higher. I'm hoping against hope that I am wrong on that read. But I'm wondering...

Posted-10/30/2012 : 04:13:22

Originally posted by jimkane

...I'm thinking it wants around the 25 area. Do the lines and the .382/.447 and you'll see it (you better!)...

It goes without saying the reaction with the lower high retest here is very significant to me. We will know more soon, one way or the other.

Hmmm, an aside or two before I quit. PCLN did a nice little gap up today, up over 70 at the HOD. Over 70! AAPL getting monkey-hammered, and PCLN is up over 70! PCLN! Give me a break, I thought they gave up on that POS...