Some areas, in case the lowest one will not hold.

target hit

I missed it, but it was a nice setup on the 5 min...

and straight into the gz

the abcd on the 5 min would have been out for a loss with a stop move back to the .786.

Welcome to the forum, Barkley. One thing you may look at for that ABCD is the 'context'. If you read my section you'll see this had come down off my posted area, as I expected, and had already dropped nearly 20 points, the last 15 or so 'straight down' with no significant corrections, right into support areas. This is not a good place to initiate a new short-term short in my opinion. Recall the chapter in MTAC about shorting on support. That's not to say that in individual cases it can't go lower, but this is a game of odds, of probabilities, and that's a lower probability trade. Just some thoughts. Now, look at that 1-min ABCD shortly after the open.

Now, the great question is, was that bigger, more developed flat/4PT hybrid that hit at 14:00 worth a shot, based on the lower area, the time to consolidate, and the lack of reaction to the upside. Also note that the Fed minutes were released at that moment.

Thanks, yes, I saw that... but your same logic applies. Low probability. I should have played them both and taken the stop out on the first one :)

I have found several of the price projects which point to 1354-1355, so I see the PTA here. Since this is counter trend, are you really looking for a trigger to go long, or just watching?

Well, this gets to some more advanced stuff, what most consider by far the hardest part of this type of trading (not just my methodology, but any similar discretionary trading), and that's 'context'. You see, it went hard into the area, and that doesn't make for a good shorting opportunity, as I said. But, that area should produce 'reversal action' if it is as significant as the layout says it may be. It doesn't do that, though.

Yes, the 'C' point could have been considered a 'retest' and up it goes, but the price action didn't support that in my opinion. It was not strong or impulsive looking. The time spent was about three hours going nowhere. When manipulation rampers hit an area, in my experience, they tend to come in fairly hard. Sure, this could all be a base, but the odds seemed to be decreasing that this was the case.

So, this much larger correction (think of corrections not only in terms of price, but also time) did give this a much greater possibility of having enough juice for another leg down. It was a balanced correction for the move down in a situation like this. The first one wasn't. So, things changed, new information was added. Hence, I think, by my view of the methodology, the first one was too risky, the second one wasn't.

The best potential trades of the day, though, were the flat right at the open (that was the trade of the day, a second chance off the key area), and the little 1-min ABCD I mentioned before, as a 'second chance at the second chance'.

Originally posted by Barkley

Thanks, yes, I saw that... but your same logic applies. Low probability. I should have played them both and taken the stop out on the first one :)

nothing surprising about a bounce in here....