Well, I'm not sure how much I'll post this week, but I hope to get something in here. Thanks to everyone for all the condolences and 'get well' wishes.

First indications are for an open at 1403, which is slightly down.

Just some indications... What is clear to me is that they are wildly buying this 'dip'.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-25/what-difference-year-makes

Interesting note on today's volume.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-26/nyse-volume-some-joke

My working premise hasn't changed, I'm still going on the idea this is in a bear market and this is the deep 'W2' retest we are in now. The stuff really starts to come in here, and runs from say 1410 to say 1422-23ish. Probably 12-17 is the meat of the really good stuff, but it could be anywhere from here to 23. I think it is in the final push now, and unless this 1-tick game was it (I think that's the lower probability outcome), it should be making a final ascent that sucks the last of the suckers in.

Bloomberg has had plenty of bulls on today talking about the year end rally that is in progress, and how it will continue. (Too funny, because even if it did, as soon as the new year started they'd be talking about the new year rally, then the first quarter rally, then the spring rally, then this rally, then that rally, then the summer rally, then...)

The scenario I am watching for is the resumption of the bear market and downtrend off my area, most likely on some inane news item like 'Well, it looks like after all the fiscal cliff isn't resolved it turns out...' or something equally obvious but just as stoo-pid. And then they'll say it was going to rally into year end, but who could have foreseen this unexpected black swan...

So, now it's about reading what it does in here and making a decision on taking shots at it, once the action tells me 'it's time'.

Let me make this a bit more clear if I can. This market could go up much higher and do a really 'deep' 'W2'. Or, this may not be a bear market after all, just a correction that is over, and more new 'bulls#%&' market highs are coming. My premise may not play out at all. But at some point in order to trade one has to choose sides, make decisions, and let the chips fall where they may. At least I'm willing to discuss my premises in here before they happen, whether they play out or not. Many don't. All I'm looking for is a small edge.

Also, although this 4.25 here may be it on this checkback (I'm saying this because many times the second I post something that's when the movement ends), if someone told me he or she was short off that 1-tick game for a very short-term play (assuming they aren't riding a long here, which I would think many are), I wouldn't say they were crazy. You never know with a spot like that if it might want a flat or even a DT ABCD before resuming the march up. And if that was it and it dumps, one is positioned for that. But, what a tough play if one is already long.

So, what's the point of the second part of the last post? You see, this is a fractal (smaller one) of what is possibly setting up on the higher timeframe. There was a long play for this rise, this little leg, and then it gets close to a possible short area. One may be long, but then a shift to potential short side comes into view. Now, on the higher timeframe, one may be long for that entire move up so far, and now the higher timeframe potential shift comes into view. When do you make the shift? If you wait too long, you may miss it. If you go early you have to get off the other side, a side that may be showing you a profit and hasn't necessarily said close out yet.

This is a real world situation. Don't expect a clear cut, simple answer from me, since I don't think there is one. It's about trying to do the best, work the situation the best, that one can. So, seeing this fractal here is a chance to not only grasp what we are about to be faced with, but to do some practice with it. I'm not saying this fractal will play out like the next one that looks to be coming up, only that the move into it seems similar.

Now, does anyone think it was so crazy to discuss the premise last night about probing the short side, that that 1-tick game might be it? Doesn't seem like the premise of a madman now, does it? I'm not saying that's it, for sure. I'm saying, odds-wise, it has now been demonstrated that it wasn't the rantings of a maniac after all.

Now, from a practical trading standpoint I can already hear some asking, 'but how does one sit through a 9.25 point bounce?' First off, I'm not saying anyone would. Some, positioning for a big move they may hold for awhile, perhaps in an option play (but not necessarily), may have no issue with that. Someone trying to play very short-term individual legs, would likely not. Some may be playing something in between. It all depends on what play one was constructing.

Maybe one thought this would want to do the flat ABCD. It's there now, and 'seeing it' quite well. Maybe that was the play, and now right back on the long side. Maybe one thinks the DT ABCD is going to unfold, and will ride this bounce to a reasonable technical level and then down, if this happens. Maybe the premise is the 'big' move is under way, and all technically reasonable checkbacks for that premise will be ridden out. Maybe the person is playing small legs for intraday plays ('daytrades', what I call 'intraday swing trades'). Each would have different management plans and different approaches from start to finish. You have to have an idea, exactly, what you think is happening and what you are trying to catch, so you can create a plan for that unique premise at that time.

I hope this makes sense. I can't give anyone the answer to what play they are looking at, what their unique premise is for a trade at that moment. Each person has to decide that on their own. So, I like to discuss bias, frameworks, and so on. Concepts. Then readers can see how I'm thinking, and practice some premises for themselves.

So, has it started? That's the $64,000 question. On the other hand, if one is already short, one has but to wait and see...

Okay, time to see what they can do with a bounce here. It's showtime.

Keep an eye on 5-6, if this decides to turn down after another push. They sure look like they want much, much higher. I'm noting that look.

Everyone should read these quotes from Thomas Jefferson. The part that trips me out the most is, what is happening, it's all so obvious, how it will end so incredibly predictable in my opinion, yet when it happens 'they' will say there was no way we could have seen this black swan event, it was all unknowable (you know, like they said about the NASDAQ and housing bubbles right before they popped), and they will do their best to help us with the new international monetary system they need to implement (or we're all toast), and we'll believe them, again, and look to them to help us, because 'they are the experts'. It's been going on since ancient Roman times (and before), it's going on now, and people, collectively, are simply incapable of seeing it or understanding it, even when it is explained to them... It's so frickin' sad...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-01/ron-paul-why-i-dont-run-independent#comment-3026271