ES 3-11-13

I think our old friend 1542.25 is the magnet price today. A lot of activity there on Friday and in the O/N session. My preference is to sell up near the close of Friday using 1545 ( this number is at the O/N high too) - 1547.50 as my first resistance zone for the shorts.

I'm also keeping in mind that last weeks Monday - Tuesday projection up into 1553 is still valid until this weeks Mon- Tuesday range is in.

On the downside we have the O/N low which is right near that ledge from Friday at 1539.50 that never printed.

My bigger picture view is that if the 41 - 42.25 zone that was mentioned in Fridays video begins to fail and act as resistance then they will want to push back to 1534.50
so far we have had no 30 minute bar trade under a previous 30 minute bar so I am more than skeptical as we approach the final 2 hours of trade...I think they will test the high of last weeks overnight session once more at least I think the low volume area at 1548 is the test spot but have been unable to find an entry up here yet that I like..the volume is so low....

I see gaps in the data, ledges ( 48.50 potentially on this bar)and there is still a single print down at 1546...I'm not saying to blindly fight the trend but we need to keep in mind that we are only up 3.8 points on the cash market...not exactly a raging bull today....and the NQ has not joined this party today either
after this bar closes it will only leave three full 30 minute bars left in the day. I cannot remember the last time I actually noticed where the 30 minute bars made matching or higher lows the entire day.

This must be falling in the 1% probability or less if it does happen today..just a guess as I don't track that probability

I am aggressively hunting shorts up here at 49.75...I don't care if I am wrong a few times. I think this is worth the risk now even though the full projection still stands at 1553!!
almost on schedule for that test back of a 30 minute seems us shorts have so much in our way like the high of Friday etc...the only good thing is that volume formed above last weeks Overnight high and price didn't seem to move up from there..

see the bulge in volume at 49.25 now? I'm not trying to hold for any big selloff as they may need to still digest that volume node...

be thankful and move on