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roofer
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red line green set got price to NOW.... NOW WE SEE IF THE SIGNAL HAD BIGGER IMPLICATIONS
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roofer
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SO MANY CHOICES...i do not know what the computers will decide.... i know what i think is happening..... but that is 180 from trading the tools
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roofer
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re jim's post on utilities... i am hoping to see the final para rise confluent with new high in bonds....but with bonds at CRUCIAL LEVEL.... must be ready for alt right here...
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roofer
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rat thanks but AGAIN what is awesome is the fact that the tools give us a frame work to make choices and as long as your choice gives you a clear target that is worth the risk...you will be ok...
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rat89
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1.128 and 1.618 here.....could snap up hard or rush to the lower line
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Sorry, roofer, I guess I'm just somewhat of a dumb a#% at times, or maybe just too set with my own approach, but many times I wind up more confused when I see your excellent work. If I'm struggling, I wonder how the newer members in here feel. So, it broke well below the NOW on this chart and the one you posted after this one. Does that say the signal did have bigger implications? Or no?
You took some of the SPXU off, and have a tight stop on the rest (I assume those are now off). But otherwise, you are flat? How do you make decisions when there is so much happening here, and your view is 180 from the tools? Yes, that was a key decision point, but you basically chose to stand aside? How did you come to that decision? If you have no idea what the machines are more likely to do, how do you take a position?
I read what your last post said, but for me, that doesn't tell me what I need to know. Yes, if the choice I make is worth the risk, then I'll be okay, but I have no idea if it is worth it unless I have some idea what is a more likely outcome. I have never found reward/risk alone enough to tell me whether a trade has a positive expected value, I need some probabilities in there also (for example, a 10-1 trade with an 8% win/loss ratio is a losing proposition over time, even with a 10-1, and similar numbers can be laid out for 100-1, 1000-1, and so on, so probability of success surely plays a role).
You must intuitively do this, even when you say you have no idea what will happen. But if readers think probabilities are not in your mind, they will go down a route that I think will not be good for them. I guess I'm just confused in how you make a decision from your 'decide' posts. Without knowing your position right at the decision point, so I can see what is available to me at that moment and then formulate a plan on how I would learn to make similar decisions, the posts have a more limited value to me.
If price action has moved off the area and then you tell me what your approach was, again, this is also of a more limited value to me, because now I look with additional information on my chart, and I can no longer make an unbiased decision about what I would have done earlier.
I think what I'm realizing is that other than the actual mechanical techniques, I can't go to the next step, a necessary next step, with your style unless I could see setups as they hit, and then what your decisions are (entry, stop, target, any intention to move the stop, something I know you rarely do once at B/E, etc.). Just my two cents describing my struggle in here. I think I'm a better teacher than student...
You took some of the SPXU off, and have a tight stop on the rest (I assume those are now off). But otherwise, you are flat? How do you make decisions when there is so much happening here, and your view is 180 from the tools? Yes, that was a key decision point, but you basically chose to stand aside? How did you come to that decision? If you have no idea what the machines are more likely to do, how do you take a position?
I read what your last post said, but for me, that doesn't tell me what I need to know. Yes, if the choice I make is worth the risk, then I'll be okay, but I have no idea if it is worth it unless I have some idea what is a more likely outcome. I have never found reward/risk alone enough to tell me whether a trade has a positive expected value, I need some probabilities in there also (for example, a 10-1 trade with an 8% win/loss ratio is a losing proposition over time, even with a 10-1, and similar numbers can be laid out for 100-1, 1000-1, and so on, so probability of success surely plays a role).
You must intuitively do this, even when you say you have no idea what will happen. But if readers think probabilities are not in your mind, they will go down a route that I think will not be good for them. I guess I'm just confused in how you make a decision from your 'decide' posts. Without knowing your position right at the decision point, so I can see what is available to me at that moment and then formulate a plan on how I would learn to make similar decisions, the posts have a more limited value to me.
If price action has moved off the area and then you tell me what your approach was, again, this is also of a more limited value to me, because now I look with additional information on my chart, and I can no longer make an unbiased decision about what I would have done earlier.
I think what I'm realizing is that other than the actual mechanical techniques, I can't go to the next step, a necessary next step, with your style unless I could see setups as they hit, and then what your decisions are (entry, stop, target, any intention to move the stop, something I know you rarely do once at B/E, etc.). Just my two cents describing my struggle in here. I think I'm a better teacher than student...
Originally posted by roofer
red line green set got price to NOW.... NOW WE SEE IF THE SIGNAL HAD BIGGER IMPLICATIONS
Click image for original size
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
re earlier post on bonds.... obviously we are not the only one's using the tools to find the pivots
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