ES Thursday 7-18-13

The magnet for me today is 76.50...hopefully that won't be too obvious...I will also be watching to see where the overnight midpoint falls today and use whichever is closest as a first target.

another gap today so gap rules will to see

1) the 50 % mark of the gap and

2) the midpoint of the gap ADDED to the open

3) the full gap added to the open

both #2 and 3 above may be additional inflection points for shorts

any sells above the number of 78.75 will need to watch that as a first hurdle...that is the selling tail transition point ffrom yesterday and just may be support !!

my biggest concern is that we have had only 14 points of range this week and that should expecting the market to consolidate forever is foolish... I am more paranoid today of a possible trend higher. For that reason i will be using price action and multiple entries ...I am putting the summer swing trader glasses away this morning and will be more proactive...

lots of reports and speakers...

a lower risk trader will want to look for sells inside the selling tail of yesterday but make sure you get out if / when we break yesterdays highs...we don't want to get caught in a trend higher IF it happens to come today
gap rules usually work much better on a gap of 5 points or more..

i think which side of 78.75 we open on will tell us a lot today about the early direction...either way that is an area to watch
a quick snap shot of my lines close by
Click image for original size
I'm trying from above yesterdays highs at 82 now...that is also near scenario number 3 mentioned above for gaps...gotta watch that evil 78.75...I was waiting for that 9:45 report to be cleared

I am assuming fades WON'T work today so keeping it smaller today !

plus 4 is near too
full gap points added to todays open get us to todays high to the tic...I'm not convinced yet that we caught a good high...I'd feel mucj better if they could get under the O/N high...

no dice yet !!
Thanks for the comments Bruce.

Here's a Blast From the Past.
MOnday range extension...
the 618 extension UP of Monday's range = 1384.00
when that prints, about 9 out of 10 times, the full extension UP will print, that would be 1686.75.

It is a goofy time right now because continuous contract watchers will have a high print of 85.75 ( I think, which might attract some sellers on the first test)), but those watching SEP13 only had 80.50 as the highest print for that contract and that means price is in uncharted territory.... go figure.

My Monday fib numbers are based on SEP13.

and it took me so long to write this that I see we already printed 86.50 in the SEP... Oh Well.
whoops, that Monday range extension UP shoud read 1684.00 not 1384.00

well, only one trade today and that was an 82 short that had potential but with the 10 a.m reports I had no choice but to cover at a .50 pt loss...

now that the Ib is in I am looking to possible fade above the Ib high but this is higher risk as we are trending and we expected that we MAY see a trend this morning...a good short will go back to the 82- 83 area from these 87 levels...
that is a great blast Paul...thanks !!
there is a gap in the data and midrange is in the 82 - 83 zone....but we're gonna need some luck and expecting just a drop is not very wise

trends go to consolidations first...usually !!

these small 5 minute ranges can be a form of consolidation for intraday traders

the other thing is we usually see two DIFFERENT tpo's print outside an IB rang we have one so far...exception is the neutral day but this open and drive doesn't seem to point to that kind of potentila today
this is soon to be the second set of single prints and I am expecting a retest of the IB highs sometime after 11 a.m. so there is ahigh probability of returning to 1687....can we use that to make any money today ? I'm not sure !!!
that's it for me today...they made us work a lot harder today but it paid off to be patient...this is gap fill and 50% ...i have nothing else