I will start this discussion topic with EURUSD chart.
On Friday it reversed six pips below the zone. I assume it may hold for a while and give some reaction but then it will be crashed.
Just my opinion.

I'll start out with a comment on the market. Notice it's up (it's Sunday night, of course it's up), pushing up on the higher part of that key area from Friday. The interesting thing is going to be if that turns it down for at least a 'get better prices into the open' sort of run of the mill scenario, or if it is going to do a 'breakout' to the upside over all this stuff. Low 1700's has a lot of things, so it may just want to get there. That would be an easy goose up for them into Tuesday. But, if not, somewhere in here it's time for a checkback.

I saw a good argument, the first I have seen outside myself, that the 'bull' market top may indeed be in here. I'm not saying it is (I still think they want to do a real blow off leg), only that other than this one obscure post I haven't seen one single person even consider that this might be it, despite the fact that, for example, the S&P is the most stretched above its 200-week moving average ever, and an endless slew off fundamental and sentiment reasons why it's done. I'll try to post a few links.

There's an old movie I just love (it's called 'They Live'), where aliens take over (in disguise), and with these special glasses you can see the aliens, and also see that everything has these huge hidden subliminal messages on them. Anyway, this one person posted a response to an article listing those messages, and to me (and him, since he posted it) it seems dead on for our world today. A little prescient, I think. Anyway, read this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-21/new-abnormal-when-200-people-have-more-wealth-3500000000#comment-3774998

I was talking with a fund manager friend of mine yesterday, and we we're discussing Detroit. I said the cities are going to fall like dominoes, one after another. 'Strategic defaults' he called them, just like with houses. I also said I think by the time it's done at least three states will go 'BK', in my opinion. I think I lost him there, though. I'd not had one person agree with that statement yet. Any, one of my heroes (for just this call) is Meredith Whitney. She got totally reamed for her call on Muni's.

I said back then, and we will see how it is starting to come to pass, that she was dead on, only early, like I usually am. I truly believe our country is on it's way to becoming Detroit, as is most of the world. Imagine what happens to the cities, and the states, when it all hits the fan. And imagine if the gov 'bails out' Detroit with more money printing that they lie and say isn't money printing. What is unfolding is truly beyond comprehension. Oh, yeah, the futures are up at another new all-time high. 'Everything is as it should be, in this, the best of all possible worlds.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-21/25-facts-about-fall-detroit-will-leave-you-shaking-your-head

And no one is talking imminent bear market. Why is it that there are really no bears (except the perennial bears) at the end of any bull market, ever? Human nature, I guess. People who simply see the cycles and look to play both sides are indeed rare. I thought they'd be the vast majority. Instead, they almost don't exist. How odd.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-20/guest-post-2007-redux

Oh, and for those that know the law and are saying 'Jim, states can't declare bankruptcy, so how can three states go bankrupt like you were saying (and undoubtedly what my friend was thinking)', here's an article that's about two and a half years old. The answer is, they will just change the law. Or the president will just do his usual and do a decree. Or the state will just 'restructure' it's debt and such, doing a de facto bankruptcy, leading to endless legal challenges. But mark my words, it's going to happen, in my opinion.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

And yes, I'll talk about trading, when I find something worth talking about. Meanwhile, I'm just waiting for the next little leg up here. It should be starting soon.

And right on schedule the next leg starts. This thing sure is something.

So, a nice scenario here would be a checkback to the 80 area (let's say 79.50-81.50) right around the RTH open tomorrow (or shortly after). That would be a sizable pullback, but it would help keep the trend healthy. This is, of course, assuming this isn't 'done' at the high there. There is also a minor area around 86.75-87.00, as well as some other lesser areas. I hope we at least get down to there. It would be tough to do any buying up here at 'retail', hoping for higher 'retail'. That sure isn't my style.

Here's an interesting take on oil, and it makes sense. Yet I still think this thing wants to take out those all-time highs. Just like all sane fundamentals say the S&P should be deep into the triple digits yet it keeps rising and rising and rising, sometimes what makes sense has less than zero to do with what the market does. But, it is an interesting read.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-21/us-oil-imports-hit-13-year-lows

I realized it now ..... Thanks Jim .