I'll start the week out with a chart from over at Slope. Oh, if only analogs like these played out more than the seemingly about 1% of the time that they do... Oh, if only...




Source: http://slopeofhope.com/2014/06/draw-thine-own-conclusions.html

Easiest read I ever made...

Originally posted by jimkane

Let me throw out a 'funny' note here. I was looking at a chart of the recent action, just stepping back looking at a blank chart, and what stood out to me was how the recent dump from the all-time high, the area Marcin did the nice chart for, that move down was very impulsive looking, and the move up, very corrective, with heavily overlapping swings. You know what that should mean? What it, in the past, would, in my experience, almost always mean? More down, and serious, coming. You know what it means nowadays, with what I feel to be over 99.99% certainty? More 'up' coming, with an 'upside breakout' from the bearish overlapping swings bear flag. Yep...

and they pushed it higher.....spy/ $spx at .942

How could they not get another new all-time high? I can't imagine it.

I want to short this right now sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo bad.

it would frustrate the players to make them wait

Yes, and there is a nice 'backtest' spot just below.

Alas, though, as I pointed out with the anticipated 'upside breakout' in a pattern that 'used to' break down almost every time, I wouldn't short this now if someone gave me the money to do it, and said they'd pay my taxes if I made a profit.

Originally posted by jimkane

I want to short this right now sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo bad.

And by now, above, I mean right at this instant when it looks like a classic short.

My urge is almost too strong to resist, except for two factors:

1) I know it's a total sucker play, and

2) I'm still 'long side bias'

This 1-min 3D is just a beautiful siren calling to me, trying to get me to go aground on the rocks and sink my ship...

I think the middle one applies, too, if you know the enemy, but not yourself.