I'll start with Friday's HOD area indicated by Jim.



The first support areas for me are 53.75 and much stronger 49-50.

Anyway, not that there is anyone in here at this time following my posts, but the short is looking a little better. I still think it is at best countertrend and will only pull back to the first possible area then bounce, but in case that isn't the plan, the short can have one positioned already. This is very tricky stuff in here.

The area I'd consider the first spot is around 54.75. But, dropping another degree, which would mean this thing is monster strong, still, after a move of 48.25 points, is 59. If it can't even get there, well, that would say something. I'd like at least the KZ, which starts at 47.75, but I could see 54.75, and 59 would be just nuts. Those are the levels that tell me about what may be unfolding. And if the few that shorted this get 'lucky', there will be something in this besides info.

Just woke up, thought I'd do a quick post to the empty air (with Marcin off, I'm pretty sure I'm alone in here at this time of night). I got my 68 (68.50 by my data), and a 3D to boot, and it 'sees' it, but my feelings are not so good on this one. I'd be shocked at anything less than up from here, although the short play has a stop just above here, and is still 'in play' as far as being potentially viable (I mean, with a trigger on drive two, the stop is above here, so that entry is still in play, as is the play triggered off the third drive).

This one would be on the very, very low end of positive expected value, and as I said, only for a highly skilled trader who is quick and responsive to price action clues and is playing it for the 'just in case' scenario. I'm thinking the far better play is to let it digest this move, and give some clues as to what it is likely to do, and even wait until it does something and sets up an area as clear as the last several ones have been. Just talkin' out loud here.

This one will almost surely be a clean stop out as it heads up to that 80-90 area.

Oh, and in case it ain't obvious, this is a big flat bearish ABCD right here. Not that that will contain it. Nonetheless, it's set up for a big 'W3' down now. It won't happen, but it's set up for it, if it was in the cards. That 'W3' would complete in the low 1800's, and finish the wave in the mid-1700's, by standard measures. But, it's all fantasy because it isn't in the cards I don't think. It first has to flush out to the upside this ABCD that everyone sees. That, and deal with the news that the Fed has reasserted they have your back, so buy, buy, buy. Okay, back to the cot.

they wouldn't do thaaaat........ ;)

Originally posted by jimkane

Oh, and in case it ain't obvious, this is a big flat bearish ABCD right here. Not that that will contain it. Nonetheless, it's set up for a big 'W3' down now. It won't happen, but it's set up for it, if it was in the cards. That 'W3' would complete in the low 1800's, and finish the wave in the mid-1700's, by standard measures. But, it's all fantasy because it isn't in the cards I don't think. It first has to flush out to the upside this ABCD that everyone sees. That, and deal with the news that the Fed has reasserted they have your back, so buy, buy, buy. Okay, back to the cot.

Okay, well, anyway, I guess my insane streak is still alive. I'm not even trying to keep it alive, as far as posts in here, I'm just posting what I see. At some point something I mention won't happen, but not yet. So, the short played out, way, way, way better than I had hoped. It did want that 68 I mentioned early on. And it did the improbable, the seemingly impossible, it gave essentially all of it back in one day.

Nah, it doesn't seem like bear market action at all, it seems like bull market action, right? 50 point, give or take, swings on a daily basis on no news. I mean seriously, there is no news. News is like a major bank failed, a terrorist attack, a leader has been killed, or something like that. I mean, 50 point daily swings? Four 50 appx. point moves in a row? And all I hear out there is this is a buyable dip. And we need to hear that in order for this to go down. When the talking heads start saying sell, then I'll worry.

Sorry I don't like to post during the RTH much, especially lately. With action like this, the forum has to take a distant back seat most of the time.

I hope my sarcasm wasn't too confusing, especially for my overseas readers where English isn't their first language. No matter how I try to change, I teach how I teach, I am who I am...

Originally posted by rat89

they wouldn't do thaaaat........ ;)

Originally posted by jimkane

Oh, and in case it ain't obvious, this is a big flat bearish ABCD right here. Not that that will contain it. Nonetheless, it's set up for a big 'W3' down now. It won't happen, but it's set up for it, if it was in the cards. That 'W3' would complete in the low 1800's, and finish the wave in the mid-1700's, by standard measures. But, it's all fantasy because it isn't in the cards I don't think. It first has to flush out to the upside this ABCD that everyone sees. That, and deal with the news that the Fed has reasserted they have your back, so buy, buy, buy. Okay, back to the cot.

And that's the point of all this, so I just want to highlight it. At the high end of the skill curve, this type of approach is feasible. That's also why I highlight when these are high skill plays, as opposed to the more usual plays. I mean, fading a 48.25 point rocket launch? For a trend following style trader?

"...but in case that isn't the plan, the short can have one positioned already..."

"...and as I said, only for a highly skilled trader who is quick and responsive to price action clues and is playing it for the 'just in case' scenario..."

Originally posted by jimkane

Anyway, not that there is anyone in here at this time following my posts, but the short is looking a little better. I still think it is at best countertrend and will only pull back to the first possible area then bounce, but in case that isn't the plan, the short can have one positioned already. This is very tricky stuff in here.

Originally posted by jimkane

Just woke up, thought I'd do a quick post to the empty air (with Marcin off, I'm pretty sure I'm alone in here at this time of night). I got my 68 (68.50 by my data), and a 3D to boot, and it 'sees' it, but my feelings are not so good on this one. I'd be shocked at anything less than up from here, although the short play has a stop just above here, and is still 'in play' as far as being potentially viable (I mean, with a trigger on drive two, the stop is above here, so that entry is still in play, as is the play triggered off the third drive).

This one would be on the very, very low end of positive expected value, and as I said, only for a highly skilled trader who is quick and responsive to price action clues and is playing it for the 'just in case' scenario. I'm thinking the far better play is to let it digest this move, and give some clues as to what it is likely to do, and even wait until it does something and sets up an area as clear as the last several ones have been. Just talkin' out loud here.

ha ha ha ha ha! Thanks jim ;)