I'll start with Friday's HOD area indicated by Jim.



The first support areas for me are 53.75 and much stronger 49-50.

As Jim said - .382 was the first level worth going long.

Careful with what I said, I meant the KZ was the first area where we would get clues, and might be as far as they will drop it if they are going to keep running it up. But they might also do a deep retest, and it might be in a bear market or more severe correction, and new lows, and not just nominal ones, may be coming. So, although a short-term trade may be possible off that KZ, it might well be countertrend.

Originally posted by MarcinO

As Jim said - .382 was the first level worth going long.

Anyway, sometimes the best trades are the scary ones. That doesn't mean if it's scary it might be a good trade, it means many good trades are scary (all leaves are green (let's ignore fall in this example), so all green things are leaves?). I once asked a long-term student how often I feel out of my comfort zone (keeping in mind, I'm the nervous about everything type), and my answer was 'pretty much every day'. I know almost no one was comfortable with what I was laying out. And most are now thinking about a long trade to send it right back up (and heck, that may work), as well as trying to catch it all the way down. That's what fuels bear markets and corrections.

I am glad I posted what I did in great detail so it can be studied with time stamps. They pushed the area and stretched it right to the last tick, and after they did that, they triggered it (the last posts I made), and they still gunned it up around our open and did the 1-2-tick game, pushing it up and over again by two ticks. Seriously, other than me, who was left looking short? And then down how much? 20+ points. Seen that before? To where? I said watch the KZ first. Right to the KZ. Recent mentor students should recognize something in the price action indicating it had found its level.

Then it bounces in an ABCD. After the obvious level pullback they gun it up. I was going to post to expect the gun up. Then they snap it down. Now we wait and see if they will push it up higher, or if that was the bearish 'W2' there.

Bottom line: I wanted to short that area, I felt as strongly as I have pretty much ever felt about an area, and it did everything it could to make the area look like shorting is pure madness. It even stretched my belief right to the limit. I'm sure very few thought this would play out. I put my ideas out there in advance, potentially open for ridicule if I was way off base. It almost seemed crazy to be so adamant, to be so 'enthusiastic' in my phrasing. I wanted to be open about my view. I mentioned the low about a week in advance. I was very 'enthusiastic' about this spot. Look what happened. The tools are just incredible. As roofer used to inspire me say 'It's all about the tools'.

And 'That's how ya do it, son.'

I was pretty wrapped up last night with my ES posts, but I wanted to mention that I expected the currencies and gold/silver were about to bounce (i.e. they are about to crush the dollar). I never did get to that, but you know I'm telling it like it is. Those bounces were obvious to the trained eye, in my opinion.

Watch the 1-min bullish ABCD here as this wraps up, for clues.

As an aside GTAT lost about 93% of its value today.

Confirmed.

Originally posted by jimkane

I was pretty wrapped up last night with my ES posts, but I wanted to mention that I expected the currencies and gold/silver were about to bounce (i.e. they are about to crush the dollar). I never did get to that, but you know I'm telling it like it is. Those bounces were obvious to the trained eye, in my opinion.

So, that was a nice little bearish 'W2' there. Sweeeeeeeeet.

Here's a funny one for 'everyone'. I did all those posts, all that stuff as it unfolded, made one of the best reads I've ever posted in my career ('best' because it was one most would shy away from, the read on the recent low was just as good of a read, but no one had issue with long at that point), and guess who has been in during and since then? Marcin and rat... Are you frickin' kidding me? I recently got asked, again, to work for a former student's hedge fund. Maybe it's time for a change...

ha ha ha ha ha! Thanks jim ;)