Starting it off.

Cable. Magnet area.

Completely, utterly relentless buying. As strong as I ever recall outside of crazy short-covering pops in the crisis or the flash crash recovery, etc. i.e. under 'normal' conditions.

Anyway, recall I mentioned that area in the 40's. It's just about there. Recall that time the market went nuts and I wanted to short it like crazy? I have no such feeling right now. (Well, I'd love to short it into dust, but only if I had enough selling power to crush it, and as Armstrong always says, no one or no government can manipulate the trend except for the very, very short-term (huh???)). As the Monkee's song says, with regard to this up move: I'm a believer.

Yawn. Another new high for the move.

Futures open and another new high for the move.

Okay, is this a possible countertrend short here? Jim's opinion? Yes, for the highly skilled, not married to the position, price reading experienced trader. Might it be up another 20, 30, 40, or even 50 tomorrow or the next day? Maybe. Might it do another push here to get deep into that 40's area? Maybe. Might it just keep on going up, with no real checkback? Possibly, but I'd say unlikely. So, one could wait for a checkback and look to play long, stay with the current long, or close that out and position short with a very jumpy attitude and be positioned if they do 'bring it in for better prices' or in case it is done and the 'bear' resumes. One makes probability decisions and uses the tools for execution, and it does what it does. The cool part is, from a complete knowledge standpoint, one doesn't have to know what an individual outcome will be to play a probability game. And, as I like to say: 'Now we see'.

Here's a funny little economic aside. I constantly hear how China is the new economic world leader, and how they really need to get growing here or the world is doomed. They need more factories, more cars (lots more cars), more stuff built, more coal burned, or we will all, the entire world, be living through something much, much worse than the peak of the Great Depression. China is our only hope, our only potential savior. Without them growing, and growing a lot, every year, we are done for. This is how it is with a 'growth model' economic system.

I'm thinking about the Gulf oil spill, Fukushima, a recent study that has shown we have extincted about half of all mammal species in the last 40 years (and I think it was well into the 80's percent of ocean animals), and now this. This is China. This is what we all so desperately need to have more of, or we are done for. And, the show goes on. I wonder how their cancer rates are, given the cancer rate is about 1 out of 2 now. Are they at 1.99 out of 2? This is all just madness.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-19/what-happens-when-30000-people-run-beijing-airpocalypse-marathon-hazardous-smog

So, go back and read the posts. I mentioned the 40's area on the 17th last week. Marcin pointed out the key area just over 1900. I mentioned I could see taking my qualified short shot off that. I mentioned the monster area where it reversed just after the European open last night. The high today was 39.75. I can't even think of one reversal or movement lately that hasn't been right off an area. I mean, seriously, could I post any better reads that I have been? If it is possible, I can't imagine how. I'm not bragging, or making claims, I'm just saying holy cow, the tools are blowing my mind. How anyone, ever, said or thought the market is random just befuddles me. I guess they never developed skills like these or watched the market for a long time.

Anyway, just thought I'd do a little recap. I won't even get into how even the smaller moves between these bigger moves, they are just hitting these confluences over and over and over, to the point that I just can't even believe it. And by year end my estimate for 'screen hours' for me hits the magical 50,000 hours (at one time I thought maybe I'd 'retire' when I hit 50,000). Fifty-frickin'-thousand hours and I still can't comprehend the order I see in the market, how it is even possible... My most commonly repeated to myself question every day is 'How can this even be...???'

Originally posted by jimkane

Yep, it's up against it now. But is 40 area calling to it?

Originally posted by MarcinO

1899 and 1903 are strong resistance levels.

Yeah, this market is healthy. Yeah, this is a 'real' bull market. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/vix-has-never-done-ever

Okay, is that a small buy program, or the start of another monster leg up?

Anyway, the ES did something it usually doesn't do, and that's make any kind of move in the Friday after close mini session. This time it kept moving up, set a new high for the entire move, and closed almost at the high tick. It is now fully at the monster weekly backtest line. If this is a bear market, it should roll off this, and roll hard. There is a key area above, built from the immediate price action, and that comes in at 76-87, with a grouping of key Fibs at 94.00-95.50. I could see it hitting the lower end of the area, maybe a little above the lower end, and still be respecting the key TL backtest, but not much more.

Still, does it even seem remotely feasible that this is going to dump to significant new lows from here? The only hope I see at all is that not only do all pundits and analysts say no, it's completely and utterly an impossibility, most readers in here, I believe, are also saying no out loud right now. And that's not meant as a slight to the readers in here, who are among the most highly informed out there, I feel, it's more meant to imply just how good they are at sucking people in. We'll see. I don't really care, from a trading standpoint, what these maniacs do with it. So, that's what I'm working with as we reach arguably the most critical juncture perhaps in trading history.